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Old 12-07-2007, 05:07 PM
 
159 posts, read 276,046 times
Reputation: 124

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If you are able or have the money, the best time to buy is when people are talking about housing slump in droves like now.
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Old 12-07-2007, 06:36 PM
 
159 posts, read 808,009 times
Reputation: 68
nasu... that's what I believed to be true in the last downturn in real estate so I bought
a "GREAT" deal of a house in 1994 and then watched my great deal tank in price till
I was upside down to the tune of 35 thousand... it took untill the year 2000 where I
could sell and actually make a very small profit. This was the biggest bubble in
history and is just starting to correct. I'd say prices are going to continue to come
down for at least a couple of years.
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Old 01-17-2010, 11:46 AM
 
10 posts, read 29,513 times
Reputation: 12
Default Why wait for the bottom?

Another view...



I am an investor who has bought and sold approx. 100
homes in Butte County. I also own a number of keepers
(rentals).

Have a close look at your assets and income. If you can afford
to buy and have found what you want, maybe you should.

If you look at the difference in your mortgage payments
between $275,000 and $325,000 it is not huge.
(if an increased payment of that amount knocks you out
you should think twice about buying at all)

Its now 2010 and home prices here in Chico (Butte County CA)
are very likely at 'the bottom'.


Good luck!
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Old 01-17-2010, 12:04 PM
 
Location: Las Flores, Orange County, CA
26,338 posts, read 93,446,398 times
Reputation: 17827
Quote:
Originally Posted by bukzin View Post
prices here in Chico (Butte County CA)
are very likely at 'the bottom'.
Why do you think that is? Are housing prices and incomes related by about 3-4 to 1?
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Old 01-17-2010, 12:11 PM
 
10 posts, read 29,513 times
Reputation: 12
Not sure what you mean.

Are you asking about the ratio of incomes to housing costs?
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Old 01-17-2010, 12:12 PM
 
Location: Las Flores, Orange County, CA
26,338 posts, read 93,446,398 times
Reputation: 17827
Quote:
Originally Posted by bukzin View Post
Are you asking about the ratio of incomes to housing costs?
The ratio of home prices to income. See median income is around $38K, median housing value is $331K. OK, it's a college town. There may be retirees there....but a 9:1 ratio seems way out of line. Also note the huge increase from $138K in 2000, that's a lot more the 4%/year.

From City-Data:

Estimated median household income in 2008: $38,204 (it was $29,359 in 2000)
Chico: $38,204
California: $61,021

Estimated per capita income in 2008: $22,506

Estimated median house or condo value in 2008: $331,200 (it was $138,600 in 2000)
Chico: $331,200
California: $467,000
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Old 01-17-2010, 12:18 PM
 
10 posts, read 29,513 times
Reputation: 12
You are correct if you are saying many folks cannot afford to buy.
Wages here tend to be low.

This area is still one of the better deals in the state for those
which do buy.

Unlike what the media is saying, there are lots of low-down
loans available. The first time home buyer part of the market
is active.

I have 3 for sale now in Chico (NorCalForSale.com) and
more coming up in Gridley, Oroville and Biggs. I tend to price
them on the low side to be able to move on to the next one.

Do you own real estate in Butte County?
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Old 01-17-2010, 12:21 PM
 
Location: Las Flores, Orange County, CA
26,338 posts, read 93,446,398 times
Reputation: 17827
Quote:
Originally Posted by bukzin View Post
You are correct if you are saying many folks cannot afford to buy.
Would someone be correct if they said the current housing prices in Chico are way too high based on supply-demand models and incomes?

Look at the ratio of house value to income in 2000 (138/29 = 4.7), then look at 2008 (331/38 = 9). Housing prices have probably fallen since 2008 but are they even close to 2000 ratios yet?
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Old 01-17-2010, 12:26 PM
 
10 posts, read 29,513 times
Reputation: 12
The Chico market is quite different then the rest of Butte County.

The realtors here tell me the inventory of starter homes
($200k to $275k) is low and they are selling well.

The numbers (costs) of homes you quoted seem high to me.

Maybe have a look at Chico on CraigsList to see what is for sale
and rent.

Last edited by bukzin; 01-17-2010 at 01:11 PM..
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