El Niño Probability Raised to 78% for Next Winter (live, water)

[Tulemutt]

Keyboards are small on those cell phones, eh?

[eccotecc]

BeauCharles,

It's California, what do you expect. Rain only at night....Next year at this time I hope to see a post asking if the rain will ever end. As for the fishing, I hope the fish we now have in rivers and streams will be able to survive.

[Hawaii4evr]

Originally Posted by Tulemutt

Keyboards are small on those cell phones, eh?

Ipad actually but yes, it is very hard for me to type here with it. Sorry for the typos.

[LuvSouthOC]

Originally Posted by Hawaii4evr

Ipad actually but yes, it is very hard for me to type here with it. Sorry for the typos.

I have been using a phone and see some did-I-write-that crazy typos.

[AdriannaSmiling]

El Nino means we'll have a warmer than average summer at the coast with less of a marine layer. Even San Francisco might get a few shorts and tee-shirt days with a handful of fog free evenings. More beach days and less May Gray and June Gloom and No sky July.
From August through October, we might see some rare late summer early fall warm rain in Southern California from remains of dying hurricanes in the Eastern Pacific (which is way more active in an El Nino year than a normal year).

November through March or April will likely have around double (or even more!) normal rainfall in Southern California; it could be just bigger storms with downpours with a good number of typical Southern California sunny days in between the storms OR it could be nonstop Seattle like drizzle for months on the end with hardly any sun. But more often it's something in between. More rain events and the ones that come tend to be bigger ones but also some sunny and warm days between the rain events. Maybe we'll get a few good thunderstorms during the 2014-2015 year (either during the late summer/early fall tropical moisture or during the winter storms). Average temperatures in winter will have cooler daytime highs and warmer overnight lows so the average temperatures will be the same as a non El Nino year but just much less diurnal range. Mudslides could be a problem in the hills but the same areas are at heavy risk for wildfires due to our totally bone dry summers. Urban and suburban areas are relatively safe from both floods and wildfires unless we have an very extreme event. I'm hoping that we get some rare widespread late summer rain to thwart the wildfire risk but requires a very strong El Nino and a bit of luck as well.

[pch1013]

Originally Posted by AdriannaSmiling

El Nino means we'll have a warmer than average summer at the coast with less of a marine layer. Even San Francisco might get a few shorts and tee-shirt days with a handful of fog free evenings. More beach days and less May Gray and June Gloom and No sky July.

Presumably no Fogust either.

San Francisco is having just such a day today -- close to 90 degrees, and not a cloud in the sky. Ugh!

[BeauCharles]

I was living in Salinas and working in Monterey the last El Nino winter in 97/98. It was foggier than heck the summer before. I remember vividly because I moved there in June and thought I was going to freeze to death after living inland my whole life. It was so gray, drizzly and depressing that summer.

[Gentoo]

Originally Posted by Hawaii4evr

I am nit a fan of long periods if rain like in Portland, but I thimk we meed a good month of 2 of heavy downpours...and I'm on if them "SoCal people" yiu refer to.

One or two months will not solve anything long term. This is exactly what happened in Norcal in December of 2013 and yet, here we are.

[Fargobound]

Given all the early fires, something tells me that if the event pans out it's going to be mudslide mess.

[nightbird47]

I remember the one El Nino which blew in sideways. We had a nice outdoor cooking area set up under the patio roof, and it soaked and ruined everything. Then the year when I was renting a room where the outside door was higher than the floor in the room, and I had everything in stilts and killed the rug. So if you have stuff outside or similar situations to my door fix it now....

That was in Riverside, but our weather people and the farmers here in OK are just as hopeful. It's actually dryer than in the 30's. I have a new roof and my house is build slightly off the ground and I'll make sure there's grass to die down so it doesn't turn into mud. I'll take that over being in extreme fire danger half the summer.

Whatever your bend, encourage the forces of nature to give the big swath of dry places water this time.