UCLA: California jobless rate on track to fall below 5 Percent by 2017

[2sleepy]

Originally Posted by colorful_mess

It's still 7-8% unemployment in my county in the Central Valley - of course we'll probably be lost in those positive statistics...

There are reasons for that, but if you live there you probably don't need to be told what they are.

[treedroppings]

The job market is picky around San Jose. I think lots of unemployed are 'discouraged' and are not counted as job seekers or unemployed.

[expatCA]

Originally Posted by treedroppings

The job market is picky around San Jose. I think lots of unemployed are 'discouraged' and are not counted as job seekers or unemployed.

Yes, when you include those who have dropped out or are working part time jobs they really don't want, the "jobless" rate is much higher. Selective data to make things look better than they are.

[Krispytopher]

Originally Posted by 2sleepy

Please explain the 'unemployment lie' to me...

I can explain one of them, let us use easy numbers to explain this idea.

Pretend we have 100 people, everyone is working, we have 100% employment, and zero percent Unemployment.

Now say 20 people are not working, that gives us 20% unemployment, right? Maybe, how many of them are looking for work? Unemployment only looks at those that are actively seeking a job. So, let us say that there are 50 people out of a job, but only twelve people are looking for work, we only have 12% unemployment, even tho it would really be half the population out of a job.

Out of those 12 looking for work, say 3 find a job, and then 3 get discouraged and stop looking for work, well unemployment is now 6%, that is why numbers and what not mean very little, it only looks at a small portion that are looking for work, not the actual unemployment population that could work but are not doing so.

[Tulemutt]

Originally Posted by expatCA

Yes, when you include those who have dropped out or are working part time jobs they really don't want, the "jobless" rate is much higher. Selective data to make things look better than they are.

The most cited unemployment factor is - and always has been - based on people looking for work. There have always been people unemployed and not looking for work. Dropped out, discouraged, supported by other means, lotto winners, whatever. This is nothing new. When 5% was the accepted rate of "unemployment" years in the past there were also "dropped out, discouraged, supported by other means, lotto winners" not factored in. No different now. It is a relative evaluation of the state of employment. Except, of course, for people who always seek to maximize negative points of view, choosing to overlook relative truths.

If it's "selective data" now. It was similarly "selective data" in the past. Which means the factor is as meaningful now as it used to be.

[expatCA]

Originally Posted by Tulemutt

The most cited unemployment factor is - and always has been - based on people looking for work. There have always been people unemployed and not looking for work. Dropped out, discouraged, supported by other means, lotto winners, whatever. This is nothing new. When 5% was the accepted rate of "unemployment" years in the past there were also "dropped out, discouraged, supported by other means, lotto winners" not factored in. No different now. It is a relative evaluation of the state of employment. Except, of course, for people who always seek to maximize negative points of view, choosing to overlook relative truths.

If it's "selective data" now. It was similarly "selective data" in the past. Which means the factor is as meaningful now as it used to be.

What is interesting is that the latest data I could find shows the underemployment % down a bit as well. Surprising. Now to find the % who have given up for a while.

Uniquely TN's rate of unemployment is ... 5.6%. It dropped more than the national average did in 2015.

CA 5.7%
TX 4.6%
FL 5.0&

Also interesting: Among the states, Florida created the most jobs in November, with 35,200 new jobs. Texas added 16,300, followed by Virginia, with 14,400 new jobs.

State Unemployment Rates | November 2015

[2sleepy]

Originally Posted by Krispytopher

I can explain one of them, let us use easy numbers to explain this idea.

Pretend we have 100 people, everyone is working, we have 100% employment, and zero percent Unemployment.

Now say 20 people are not working, that gives us 20% unemployment, right? Maybe, how many of them are looking for work? Unemployment only looks at those that are actively seeking a job. So, let us say that there are 50 people out of a job, but only twelve people are looking for work, we only have 12% unemployment, even tho it would really be half the population out of a job.

Out of those 12 looking for work, say 3 find a job, and then 3 get discouraged and stop looking for work, well unemployment is now 6%, that is why numbers and what not mean very little, it only looks at a small portion that are looking for work, not the actual unemployment population that could work but are not doing so.

Ok, let's pretend we have 20 people not working and 5 have returned to college, 5 have decided to be stay at home parents, and 5 are young enough to work but have retired with a pension and decided to stay out of the workforce - that leaves 5, right? So the employment rate would hardly be 20% would it?

[krew09]

ya,you have to have an I.Q. below 5 to believe that.

[nslander]

Originally Posted by krew09

ya,you have to have an I.Q. below 5 to believe that.

Yes. UCLA's Anderson forecast clearly just one of the many heads comprising the propaganda hydra of the Thetan People's Front.

[Californiaguy2007]

It's always great to hear something positive about this state,because I know there are CA haters out there that gloat when something negative happens here