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Old 03-03-2016, 07:41 PM
 
Location: State of Transition
88,020 posts, read 81,962,527 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheDragonslayer View Post
Getting to 72º on March 3rd does not spell well for the lingering remains of winter. The storm we got last night only gave us just over ½ an inch and now it is not supposed to rain till Saturday and Saturday night with us getting 1 to 3 inches of rain and another round on Sunday. Parts of Mendocino and Southern Humboldt county may get up to 5 inches. 7 to 12 inches is normal for March up here, about 5 to 7 for May and around 5 for May, so if we get those amounts or close, we will be well above normal and already are.
Getting up to 72 degrees doesn't bode well for snow in the Sierras, either. This is a harbinger of weather patterns to come.
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Old 03-03-2016, 07:43 PM
 
Location: State of Transition
88,020 posts, read 81,962,527 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BayAreaHillbilly View Post
Debbie Downer aka "The Ghost of Powell" here ...

So, front #1 came through today. Completely wimpy. Maybe .01" for many locations south of The Gate.

Front #2 is reputed to be juicier. However, unlike some earlier models, it's now looking like a one and done affair, one good day of soaking rain (Saturday).

Front #3 is now looking like little to none other than places that normally get an inside slider. Yes, I wrote those last two words in the previous sentence.

NWS now progging meridional flow starting Sunday.

That is La Nina's calling card. Granted, ENSO wise we still have months to go before we are La Nina.

But that is a bad leading indicator.
Is this due to a lingering high-pressure zone over CA? What is it that's causing the atmospheric rivers observed over the central Pacific headed our way to fizzle?




....this planet is so screwed.....
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Old 03-03-2016, 10:52 PM
 
12,824 posts, read 21,586,790 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ruth4Truth View Post
Is this due to a lingering high-pressure zone over CA? What is it that's causing the atmospheric rivers observed over the central Pacific headed our way to fizzle?




....this planet is so screwed.....
No, it's due to jet stream trajectories. Normally with El Nino the flow is zonal (e.g. W - E). With ENSO neutral it tends to flip flop between zonal and meridional. Meridional is when the jet meanders. With La Nina it it meridional. Strangely, even though Nino 3 and 4 said strong El Nino, this El Nino never set up the ongoing zonal flow.

As I've noted previously there are theories that PDO (and perhaps some even lower frequency oscillations) amplitude modulate ENSO. Therefore, a negative PDO would tend to cancel the effects of El Nino and accentuate La Nina and ENSO neutral. Well then, is that not what we've had essentially for the past 10 or more years. Again, just a theory. Much will no doubt be learned over the next while, based on real world results as opposed to computer models.
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Old 03-04-2016, 12:16 AM
 
964 posts, read 801,534 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BayAreaHillbilly View Post
No, it's due to jet stream trajectories. Normally with El Nino the flow is zonal (e.g. W - E). With ENSO neutral it tends to flip flop between zonal and meridional. Meridional is when the jet meanders. With La Nina it it meridional. Strangely, even though Nino 3 and 4 said strong El Nino, this El Nino never set up the ongoing zonal flow.

As I've noted previously there are theories that PDO (and perhaps some even lower frequency oscillations) amplitude modulate ENSO. Therefore, a negative PDO would tend to cancel the effects of El Nino and accentuate La Nina and ENSO neutral. Well then, is that not what we've had essentially for the past 10 or more years. Again, just a theory. Much will no doubt be learned over the next while, based on real world results as opposed to computer models.
This is so interesting. Are you an atmospheric sciences geek?
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Old 03-04-2016, 07:16 AM
 
18,173 posts, read 12,583,845 times
Reputation: 9235
Quote:
Originally Posted by BayAreaHillbilly View Post
No, it's due to jet stream trajectories. Normally with El Nino the flow is zonal (e.g. W - E). With ENSO neutral it tends to flip flop between zonal and meridional. Meridional is when the jet meanders. With La Nina it it meridional. Strangely, even though Nino 3 and 4 said strong El Nino, this El Nino never set up the ongoing zonal flow.

As I've noted previously there are theories that PDO (and perhaps some even lower frequency oscillations) amplitude modulate ENSO. Therefore, a negative PDO would tend to cancel the effects of El Nino and accentuate La Nina and ENSO neutral. Well then, is that not what we've had essentially for the past 10 or more years. Again, just a theory. Much will no doubt be learned over the next while, based on real world results as opposed to computer models.
In other words no change in the drought and conditions water wise will be worse?

It isn't getting better.
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Old 03-04-2016, 12:16 PM
 
Location: Oroville, California
3,382 posts, read 5,322,475 times
Reputation: 6462
Quote:
Originally Posted by BayAreaHillbilly View Post
Debbie Downer aka "The Ghost of Powell" here ...

So, front #1 came through today. Completely wimpy. Maybe .01" for many locations south of The Gate.

Front #2 is reputed to be juicier. However, unlike some earlier models, it's now looking like a one and done affair, one good day of soaking rain (Saturday).

Front #3 is now looking like little to none other than places that normally get an inside slider. Yes, I wrote those last two words in the previous sentence.

NWS now progging meridional flow starting Sunday.

That is La Nina's calling card. Granted, ENSO wise we still have months to go before we are La Nina.

But that is a bad leading indicator.
I'm not delving into or reading into the forecast that much - all I know is that for my area it shows rain every single day save for Tuesday for the coming week. The chief weather guy at the Chico station seems very confident about the amount of rain and snow North State is forecast to get and said we may even seen local flooding by the end of next week.
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Old 03-04-2016, 02:56 PM
 
Location: State of Transition
88,020 posts, read 81,962,527 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BeauCharles View Post
I'm not delving into or reading into the forecast that much - all I know is that for my area it shows rain every single day save for Tuesday for the coming week. The chief weather guy at the Chico station seems very confident about the amount of rain and snow North State is forecast to get and said we may even seen local flooding by the end of next week.
Keep us posted.
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Old 03-05-2016, 10:27 AM
 
Location: McKinleyville, California
6,413 posts, read 9,608,537 times
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Miracle March or March coming in like a Lion, what ever one wants to call it, this round of storms coming in appears to be the strongest this winter and just may well tip the balance in this drought that has lasted four years. Wont take us out of it, but give us some reprieve from the perpetual dryness. To date, up here in far Northern California, on the coast, we are at just about 44 inches of rain for the rain year and the forecast is for another whopping 8 to 12 inches more over the next ten days. They are talking about feet of snow for the mountains.

I have only been on the coast since 2000, lived in the southern part of Humboldt county from 92 to mid 2000. In 2006 we got near 90 inches or rain here in McKinleyville on the coast. In the 97/98 El Nino I lived in the southern part of Humboldt county about 10 miles in from the coast and we got 141 inches of rain, Honey Dew/Petrolia area south of Ferndale got 224 inches that year. I will have to locate my friend from Honey Dew and see what he has recorded and compare notes, see where he is at this year.
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Old 03-05-2016, 10:57 AM
 
Location: Wine Country
661 posts, read 771,379 times
Reputation: 2030
We're swimming up here in Sonoma County at the moment - also looking at steady rain for the next week or so. Happy to report that our lawns and gardens are lush green and blooming with spring flowers
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Old 03-05-2016, 11:04 AM
 
964 posts, read 801,534 times
Reputation: 1279
Quote:
Originally Posted by LaylaM View Post
We're swimming up here in Sonoma County at the moment - also looking at steady rain for the next week or so. Happy to report that our lawns and gardens are lush green and blooming with spring flowers
This is good news. Looks like the rain found a hole in that front that was barricading California from all but an occasional lighter shower.
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