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Old 02-08-2016, 04:10 PM
 
Location: Westminster/Huntington Beach, CA
1,780 posts, read 1,409,742 times
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The CFS-v2 models are showing a huge pattern change late month. If that sticks around for more than a week, we could still be on track for an above average winter statewide.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...v2FCST/weekly/

PS: if anyone cares to check the link out, click on weeks 3 & 4 anomalies and click on the most recent green dot for "US Prec." This is a rough model of rainfall anomalies by week, listed in mm's.
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Old 02-08-2016, 04:14 PM
 
Location: State of Transition
88,175 posts, read 82,181,917 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NativeOrange View Post
The CFS-v2 models are showing a huge pattern change late month. If that sticks around for more than a week, we could still be on track for an above average winter statewide.

CFSv2 Weekly Climate Forecasts

PS: if anyone cares to check the link out, click on weeks 3 & 4 anomalies and click on the most recent green dot for "US Prec." This is a rough model of rainfall anomalies by week, listed in mm's.
This is what I read about. NOAA is still expecting major storm action.
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Old 02-08-2016, 04:17 PM
 
Location: SoCal
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The weather man is always wrong, I think there will be more rain. It doesn't seem very wet this year.
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Old 02-08-2016, 04:22 PM
 
Location: Citrus Heights, CA
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Originally Posted by Proffer View Post
Hello. I notice that there has not been much rain in Southern California, and there is none in the forecast. Disappointing rainfall amounts in South Texas, too. Was El Nino a bust? If a record El Nino only produced normal rainfall in Central California, I would imagine that the drought will be back with a vengeance next year without one
We still have the "March Miracle" to get through or not.
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Old 02-09-2016, 10:37 AM
 
Location: Carpinteria
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What El Niño? Santa Barbara Flirts With High-Temperature Record
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Old 02-09-2016, 10:50 AM
 
Location: On the water.
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What we need is an El Ten-o!
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Old 02-09-2016, 11:59 AM
 
Location: Oroville, California
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Saw a climatologist from San Jose State on the news last night (they were reporting on this very subject). Shej basically said enjoy the nice weather while you can - all forecasts point to a return to wet weather later in the month that will probably last well into April. She also echoed what I anecdotally noticed over my life - we usually get a week or two of nice weather in February most years. Again, don't write off wet weather just yet.
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Old 02-09-2016, 03:27 PM
 
12,824 posts, read 21,609,145 times
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In any case, whether or not the storm door re-opens next week, from a purely statistical point of view, each dry day that goes by this month makes it less and less likely we can reach normal this water year let alone break the drought. In fact I suspect it is now statistically nearly impossible to actually break the drought this water year. We are now in a mitigation game, no longer a drought breaking game. Which is bad. It's bad because we are going to be ENSO neutral then negative. We'll be negative when the next rainy season arrives. We could be right back in trouble again, next water year.
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Old 02-10-2016, 01:13 AM
 
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It's a no fanfare El Nino just like 1966. Will be pretty wet in Northern/Central California in March through May, if not until June, with Southern California getting the bulk of the rain.
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Old 02-10-2016, 10:48 AM
 
Location: Oroville, California
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BayAreaHillbilly View Post
In any case, whether or not the storm door re-opens next week, from a purely statistical point of view, each dry day that goes by this month makes it less and less likely we can reach normal this water year let alone break the drought. In fact I suspect it is now statistically nearly impossible to actually break the drought this water year. We are now in a mitigation game, no longer a drought breaking game. Which is bad. It's bad because we are going to be ENSO neutral then negative. We'll be negative when the next rainy season arrives. We could be right back in trouble again, next water year.
NorCal is about 110-115% of normal right now. All signs call for about two weeks of dry weather and then a return to wet at the end of the month. The rainy season isn't over on average until late April. We are probably going to have an "average" winter precipitation wise. That's better than a poke in the eye. We may just return to more or less average winters and if that's the case it might take three/four/five of them to right things. We don't have to have a double average rainfall winter to do it in one year. But then again who the hell knows whats going to happen? I broke my crystal ball a long time ago.
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