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Old 02-27-2016, 01:40 AM
 
Location: McKinleyville, California
6,413 posts, read 9,609,866 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ruth4Truth View Post
Raining 2 months straight, that sounds like the "atmospheric river" phenomenon that often accompanies El Nino. It didn't happen this year, at least not farther south. I think the NW got it, which could include your corner of the Pacific NW.

Good to hear from you, Dragonslayer.
We had 25 days of rain in December, nearly as many in January, not as wet as 97/98, but very similar pattern. That 62 days of non stop rain in 97/98 was the year all of our reservoirs filled up. Most in one period was 9 inches in 12 hours, pushed the Eel over its banks at Ferndale and to the bottom of the bridge in Redway.
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Old 02-27-2016, 10:29 AM
 
Location: Loleta, CA
1,310 posts, read 1,128,286 times
Reputation: 1863
Quote:
Originally Posted by MountainHi View Post
How is it up there, btw? The weather maps say it's been drier than usual, but that might not mean much. From what we hear from our Crescent City poster, there's still been a decent level of moisture.
Like Dragonslayer said it was quite wet during December and January (about 14.5" in December and about 14" in January according to my weather station) but February has been pretty dry with just under 3" for the month. They're saying we could get some more tomorrow which might bump us up to 3" but I think we'll finish off the month at under 3". According to my stats the average rainfall for December and January are right around 10" and 5" for February, so we're in pretty decent shape up here overall.

The long term spring forecast is calling for a fairly wet first half of March and then a drying pattern followed by warmth with occasional rains through the end of May, so we'll see how that hashes out. Last summer was extremely warm and dry with very little fog overall and temperatures in the high 60s and low 70s for much of the summer, which is unusual.

A friend of mine who has lived in this town for 50+ years has told me that the weather up here has changed pretty dramatically since the 60s, with less fog, more erratic rainfall patterns, and more warmth overall. I've been tracking the weather trends based off of official NOAA records since 1949 and his claims are backed up by the data. The low temperatures seem to be holding pretty steady overall but the high temperatures are definitely increasing, especially during winter and spring.

If this keeps up the redwoods will probably start dying off at the southern end of the redwood belt and begin appearing further north along the Oregon coast.
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Old 02-27-2016, 10:46 AM
 
Location: Santa Cruz, CA
1,723 posts, read 1,324,204 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DCMann2 View Post
Like Dragonslayer said it was quite wet during December and January (about 14.5" in December and about 14" in January according to my weather station) but February has been pretty dry with just under 3" for the month. They're saying we could get some more tomorrow which might bump us up to 3" but I think we'll finish off the month at under 3". According to my stats the average rainfall for December and January are right around 10" and 5" for February, so we're in pretty decent shape up here overall.

The long term spring forecast is calling for a fairly wet first half of March and then a drying pattern followed by warmth with occasional rains through the end of May, so we'll see how that hashes out. Last summer was extremely warm and dry with very little fog overall and temperatures in the high 60s and low 70s for much of the summer, which is unusual.

A friend of mine who has lived in this town for 50+ years has told me that the weather up here has changed pretty dramatically since the 60s, with less fog, more erratic rainfall patterns, and more warmth overall. I've been tracking the weather trends based off of official NOAA records since 1949 and his claims are backed up by the data. The low temperatures seem to be holding pretty steady overall but the high temperatures are definitely increasing, especially during winter and spring.

If this keeps up the redwoods will probably start dying off at the southern end of the redwood belt and begin appearing further north along the Oregon coast.
Where do you find that long term forecast? NOAA? I use noaa for forecast but i don't see a long range one.
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Old 02-27-2016, 11:57 AM
 
Location: Santa Cruz, CA
1,723 posts, read 1,324,204 times
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It must be a secret enit.
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Old 02-27-2016, 03:19 PM
 
Location: State of Transition
88,050 posts, read 82,000,057 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DCMann2 View Post
If this keeps up the redwoods will probably start dying off at the southern end of the redwood belt and begin appearing further north along the Oregon coast.
I spoke to a ranger at Big Basin last fall about exactly that. He wasn't worried. He said the redwoods have endured very long dry cycles in the past, and have survived. What he didn't seem to be willing to contemplate was that we're not in a cycle, we're in a long-term trend towards warmer and drier.

I agree with you that the redwoods would start moving north, but this would take decades for the process to begin. Depending on how much warming will happen how fast, they may not get the chance. In 50 years, it could be too dry for them in OR as well. But maybe not. Summers are very dry in the Pac NW now, to the point that last summer giant cedars and Douglas Firs fell over during a summer wind storm, due to overly dry soil around their roots. That's worrisome. The increased rain in fall/winter hasn't helped the trees.

But we'll see. We can hope for the best. Maybe the redwoods will end up encircling the arctic ocean again, as they did eons ago.
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Old 02-28-2016, 07:45 AM
 
Location: Loleta, CA
1,310 posts, read 1,128,286 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by blueskywalker View Post
Where do you find that long term forecast? NOAA? I use noaa for forecast but i don't see a long range one.
I didn't forget about you; I only post from my desktop rarely and the rest of the time I'm posting from my phone.

Anyway, yeah I get my long term forecasts from NOAA, plus the weather forum.

Climate Prediction Center - Seasonal Outlook

http://www.city-data.com/forum/weather/

I actually wish I could get more into the graphs and hard data, but again, I only post from my computer rarely and it's a hassle to do it from my phone so I'm more of a consumer of that data rather than analyzing it myself which would be far more preferable.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ruth4Truth View Post
I spoke to a ranger at Big Basin last fall about exactly that. He wasn't worried. He said the redwoods have endured very long dry cycles in the past, and have survived. What he didn't seem to be willing to contemplate was that we're not in a cycle, we're in a long-term trend towards warmer and drier.

I agree with you that the redwoods would start moving north, but this would take decades for the process to begin. Depending on how much warming will happen how fast, they may not get the chance. In 50 years, it could be too dry for them in OR as well. But maybe not. Summers are very dry in the Pac NW now, to the point that last summer giant cedars and Douglas Firs fell over during a summer wind storm, due to overly dry soil around their roots. That's worrisome. The increased rain in fall/winter hasn't helped the trees.

But we'll see. We can hope for the best. Maybe the redwoods will end up encircling the arctic ocean again, as they did eons ago.
Honestly it's really hard to say what long term trends might be. We can infer things from past climate change through models and stuff, but how things actually play out is difficult to pin down at best. A perfect example would be this winter's El Nino cycle. All models suggested a pretty wet winter in California, but that stubborn ridge popped back up which wasn't expected. The one good thing to come out of this odd El Nino will be improved modeling techniques that arise out of the data collected this winter. It'll give scientists a better understanding of what's going on and whether these high pressure ridges can be predicted in the future based on what's going on elsewhere.

As for the trees, they're definitely extremely hardy and quite hard to kill. I've seen lots of stumps or blown over trees around here with new sprouts growing all over the place. Some of the trees around here are pushing 2000 years old and there have definitely been mega droughts between then and now so it's clear they're pretty well adapted to California's climate. The big question is how well they'll endure future climate change; if the seas continue to warm up and the uplifting of cold water slows (see: the blob), there will be less and less fog which is what the trees really rely on during the dry months. No fog = no trees.
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Old 02-28-2016, 10:02 AM
 
Location: Santa Cruz, CA
1,723 posts, read 1,324,204 times
Reputation: 1308
Quote:
Originally Posted by DCMann2 View Post
I didn't forget about you; I only post from my desktop rarely and the rest of the time I'm posting from my phone.

Anyway, yeah I get my long term forecasts from NOAA, plus the weather forum.

Climate Prediction Center - Seasonal Outlook

http://www.city-data.com/forum/weather/

I actually wish I could get more into the graphs and hard data, but again, I only post from my computer rarely and it's a hassle to do it from my phone so I'm more of a consumer of that data rather than analyzing it myself which would be far more preferable.

Thank you.
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Old 02-28-2016, 12:16 PM
 
Location: Santa Cruz, CA
1,723 posts, read 1,324,204 times
Reputation: 1308
This is a good little youtube piece on the coastal redwoods.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-swLTsWXPII
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Old 02-28-2016, 05:44 PM
 
Location: State of Transition
88,050 posts, read 82,000,057 times
Reputation: 92195
Quote:
Originally Posted by DCMann2 View Post

Honestly it's really hard to say what long term trends might be. We can infer things from past climate change through models and stuff, but how things actually play out is difficult to pin down at best. A perfect example would be this winter's El Nino cycle. All models suggested a pretty wet winter in California, but that stubborn ridge popped back up which wasn't expected. The one good thing to come out of this odd El Nino will be improved modeling techniques that arise out of the data collected this winter. It'll give scientists a better understanding of what's going on and whether these high pressure ridges can be predicted in the future based on what's going on elsewhere.

As for the trees, they're definitely extremely hardy and quite hard to kill. I've seen lots of stumps or blown over trees around here with new sprouts growing all over the place. Some of the trees around here are pushing 2000 years old and there have definitely been mega droughts between then and now so it's clear they're pretty well adapted to California's climate. The big question is how well they'll endure future climate change; if the seas continue to warm up and the uplifting of cold water slows (see: the blob), there will be less and less fog which is what the trees really rely on during the dry months. No fog = no trees.
I asked the ranger about the bolded, as well, and much to my surprise, he said the fog doesn't play a role. He said the trees need water. No water = no trees, is what he said (though they can manage through some drought years, but not over the long term). Maybe he meant they can't survive on fog, alone. But he seemed to be saying that as long as they'll have water in winter and spring, with stream flow into summer, they'll be ok. Even during the drought, there's been winter/spring water for them. It hasn't been total drought. Not yet, anyway.
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Old 03-02-2016, 11:38 AM
 
Location: Santa Cruz, CA
1,723 posts, read 1,324,204 times
Reputation: 1308
Environmental Outlook: Concerns About The Unique Warming Trends In The Pacific Ocean - The Diane Rehm Show
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