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Old 02-07-2016, 08:44 PM
 
262 posts, read 388,191 times
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Hello. I notice that there has not been much rain in Southern California, and there is none in the forecast. Disappointing rainfall amounts in South Texas, too. Was El Nino a bust? If a record El Nino only produced normal rainfall in Central California, I would imagine that the drought will be back with a vengeance next year without one
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Old 02-08-2016, 10:28 AM
 
Location: Loleta, CA
1,310 posts, read 1,129,866 times
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El Nino has been a bit disappointing in the south, but here in the north we've gotten lots of precipitation and the snow pack in the Sierra is looking pretty good as well. I just read an article that suggests drier conditions may be the new normal in the southwest, and I remember reading other articles a couple years ago that suggest the same thing, and that the southwest may in fact be entering into a multi decade mega drought.
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Old 02-08-2016, 11:08 AM
 
Location: Carpinteria
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Study Says Droughts In The Southwest Could Become More Frequent - Newsy Story
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Old 02-08-2016, 11:24 AM
 
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No Feb rain on the forecast for northern CA either, but the powers that be are already talking about releasing more water from the reservoirs. Way, way shortsighted!
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Old 02-08-2016, 12:07 PM
 
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Thanks, all!
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Old 02-08-2016, 01:13 PM
 
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There's a high pressure ridge blocking El Nino storms for now. One of the major symptoms of how we know this are the Santa Ana winds we've been having lately.


High pressure ridges may be more frequent with climate change, as wind and pressure patterns may be shifting, but once that breaks down, we should get more storms. As long as the ocean temps are warmer, there will be more humidity and instability that leads to more clouds that bring precip. The high pressure ridge needs to get out of the way.

There is rain in the forecast for the Wednesday the 17th. We'll see.
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Old 02-08-2016, 01:56 PM
 
Location: State of Transition
88,165 posts, read 82,162,748 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tex?Il? View Post
There's a high pressure ridge blocking El Nino storms for now. One of the major symptoms of how we know this are the Santa Ana winds we've been having lately.


High pressure ridges may be more frequent with climate change, as wind and pressure patterns may be shifting, but once that breaks down, we should get more storms. As long as the ocean temps are warmer, there will be more humidity and instability that leads to more clouds that bring precip. The high pressure ridge needs to get out of the way.

There is rain in the forecast for the Wednesday the 17th. We'll see.
This! Excellent post! From the reports I've seen, an unusually strong El Nino is still brewing in the Pacific, but it's not able to move into our area. That doesn't mean it's not there, however. CA has had some very bad luck with the high pressure ridges. Last fall, the NW nearly all the way down to the OR/CA border was monsooning, but there was a ridge over Nevada and the far north of CA that was keeping that rain away. I don't know what it is with these ridges, but they're slowly killing CA.
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Old 02-08-2016, 03:01 PM
 
Location: Oroville, California
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Don't panic. This is basically a slightly above average winter in the northern two thirds of the state. There's almost always a dry, nice couple of weeks in late January and early February with a return to storms afterward. Back in the day fog wouldn't form in the San Joaquin Valley without high pressure during periods of the winter (and that used to be chronic for weeks in January and February).
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Old 02-08-2016, 03:09 PM
 
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Part of the problem looks to be that what was "normal" no longer is, so what the weather will be like in the future is unknown, but likely to be different than in the past in a significant way. This is happening all across the Country and the World for that matter. It will be interesting for sure.
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Old 02-08-2016, 03:19 PM
 
Location: State of Transition
88,165 posts, read 82,162,748 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by expatCA View Post
Part of the problem looks to be that what was "normal" no longer is, so what the weather will be like in the future is unknown, but likely to be different than in the past in a significant way. This is happening all across the Country and the World for that matter. It will be interesting for sure.
Yeah, "interesting" for sure. It's like the ancient Chinese curse: "May you live in interesting times."
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