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Old 02-25-2017, 01:12 PM
 
Location: Living rent free in your head
38,083 posts, read 18,037,456 times
Reputation: 27993

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Quote:
Originally Posted by EclecticEars View Post
I voted for Prop 47.

Without elaborating on all of the nuances of my thoughts and opinion, I regret my decision to vote for Prop 47.

California has proven--like it does with much of what it does--that it can take something well meaning, like giving non-violent offenders a second chance (which I believe they deserve) and screw it way up. Officer Boyle in Whittier was a fatal victim of just that this week.

I'll even go so far as to apologize for my vote. I should've been wise enough to know that Prop 47 would be sold wonderfully, but be a cluster-F. I'm deeply sorry that Officer Boyle had to lose his life, even though I don't live or work in Whittier.
Are you sure you mean prop 47 because it has absolutely nothing to do with "giving non-violent second offenders" a chance. Prop 47 changed the status of some crimes from a felony to a misdemeanor and increased the threshold for felony theft from $400 to $950.

Prop 57 involves the possible early release on parole for non-violent offenders AFTER they serve the full term of their controlling case but before they serve the term for any enhancement charges like committing a crime while on bail BUT that law has not been put into effect, the rules haven't even been published for public review yet, my guess is that it will be the end of the year before you see anyone paroled pursuant to prop 57.
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Old 02-27-2017, 06:32 PM
 
Location: Laguna Niguel, Orange County CA
9,809 posts, read 8,937,756 times
Reputation: 7941
Thanks prop 47: Violent crime increased in 4 of Orange County's largest cities and dropped in 3 others - The Orange County Register
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Old 02-27-2017, 06:48 PM
 
7,463 posts, read 5,464,177 times
Reputation: 9401
I know the police officer in the article blamed the uptick in crime in HIS city on Prop. 47, but is Prop 47 only for certain cities?

Because the article also says crime was up in some cities and down in others.

If Prop 47 is directly responsible for a crime wave, shouldn't ALL cities in California be experiencing an increase fairly equally from Prop. 47?

And, the article you linked to also notes that violent crime is up nationally --- so, how is Prop. 47 at play there?

From the article:


Violent crime increased in Santa Ana, Orange, Costa Mesa, and Irvine during the first half of 2016, according to newly released FBI data.

But it dropped in Anaheim, Huntington Beach and Garden Grove.

The report, which looked at cities with populations of 100,000 or more, shows that nationally violent crime increased 5.3 percent in the first six months of 2016 compared to the same period in 2015.



Don't get me wrong. I wasn't a fan of and didn't vote for Prop 47 (and come from a family of NYC cops). I'm sure that in some cases Prop. 47 is playing a role in individual crimes being committed, but the causes behind changes in overall crime rates are pretty complex, and vary from community to community.

So we (and cops) have to be careful of jumping to conclusions that a single factor is the sole reason for changes in a single community (or state).

Let's put our thinking hats on: what other factors might also account for some of the differences between say Santa Ana and Anaheim? What other reasons might crime in Irvine have gone up, while it went down in Garden Grove?

Last edited by RosieSD; 02-27-2017 at 07:28 PM..
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Old 02-27-2017, 07:32 PM
 
Location: Living rent free in your head
38,083 posts, read 18,037,456 times
Reputation: 27993
Well we all know that a Police Corporal is the absolute voice of authority on the causes of crime But in all seriousness, here's what the Corporal should have known. If violent crime was up, the cause was almost certainly something other than prop 47 which has absolutely nothing to do with violent crimes. Prop 47 reduced some non violent property crimes from felonies to misdemeanors, i.e. bad checks, drug possession and petty theft. Crime increases which 'might' be attributable to prop 47 are property crimes occurring in cities that write tickets rather than booking offenders for theft and drug possession cases.

And there really aren't any alarming numbers in that chart. Every city has fluctuations in the crime rate from year to year, it's not newsworthy.
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Old 02-27-2017, 10:22 PM
 
Location: On the water.
17,589 posts, read 10,095,588 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 2sleepy View Post
... it's not newsworthy.
No. But this is the hair on fire internet forum culture.
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Old 02-27-2017, 11:36 PM
 
Location: Living rent free in your head
38,083 posts, read 18,037,456 times
Reputation: 27993
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tulemutt View Post
No. But this is the hair on fire internet forum culture.
well..you got me there
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Old 02-28-2017, 10:09 AM
 
6,079 posts, read 3,590,773 times
Reputation: 5953
Quote:
Originally Posted by 2sleepy View Post
Well we all know that a Police Corporal is the absolute voice of authority on the causes of crime But in all seriousness, here's what the Corporal should have known. If violent crime was up, the cause was almost certainly something other than prop 47 which has absolutely nothing to do with violent crimes. Prop 47 reduced some non violent property crimes from felonies to misdemeanors, i.e. bad checks, drug possession and petty theft. Crime increases which 'might' be attributable to prop 47 are property crimes occurring in cities that write tickets rather than booking offenders for theft and drug possession cases.

And there really aren't any alarming numbers in that chart. Every city has fluctuations in the crime rate from year to year, it's not newsworthy.
Fluctuations are 2-3% in general. Not 10-20% like we've seen in San Francisco.
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Old 02-28-2017, 10:10 AM
 
6,079 posts, read 3,590,773 times
Reputation: 5953
Quote:
Originally Posted by EclecticEars View Post
I voted for Prop 47.

Without elaborating on all of the nuances of my thoughts and opinion, I regret my decision to vote for Prop 47.

California has proven--like it does with much of what it does--that it can take something well meaning, like giving non-violent offenders a second chance (which I believe they deserve) and screw it way up. Officer Boyle in Whittier was a fatal victim of just that this week.

I'll even go so far as to apologize for my vote. I should've been wise enough to know that Prop 47 would be sold wonderfully, but be a cluster-F. I'm deeply sorry that Officer Boyle had to lose his life, even though I don't live or work in Whittier.
Truth.
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Old 02-28-2017, 10:28 AM
 
Location: Living rent free in your head
38,083 posts, read 18,037,456 times
Reputation: 27993
Quote:
Originally Posted by CaliRestoration View Post
Fluctuations are 2-3% in general. Not 10-20% like we've seen in San Francisco.
I'm not sure what you are talking about, "fluctuations are 2-3%"? of what?? As far as San Francisco, look at what the crime rate was in 2013. Crime rates fluctuate it takes 2-3 years of to be able claim that an increase or decrease indicates a trend

Violent Crime Rate and Property Crime Rate | City Performance Scorecards
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Old 02-28-2017, 10:31 AM
 
6,079 posts, read 3,590,773 times
Reputation: 5953
Quote:
Originally Posted by 2sleepy View Post
I'm not sure what you are talking about, "fluctuations are 2-3%"? of what?? As far as San Francisco, look at what the crime rate was in 2013. Crime rates fluctuate it takes 2-3 years of to be able claim that an increase or decrease indicates a trend

Violent Crime Rate and Property Crime Rate | City Performance Scorecards


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