08-01-2017, 01:09 PM
Location: California
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Obviously leverage completely skews returns on individual purchases, but I thought the 4th chart in this article is really interesting. The S&P 500 index is up 8.03% on an annual basis since 12/31/1996 through today. The only area in the Bay Area that has beaten that return is San Francisco SFR. Everything else has underperformed.
Put differently, if you had bought a generic house in San Mateo county for all cash in 1996, you would have done BETTER if you had instead put it in a generic S&P mutual fund (obviously not accounting for fees and taxes)
Interesting point is how much worse RE has done in the US as a whole as compared to the stock market. But even CA RE has underperformed the market. Another myth busted - that the stock market is a casino and RE is the sure thing.
I think this shows that even though RE might seem really expensive, it really has increased slower than what is considered the easiest and most vanilla way for people to invest - a broad equity index. The issue with affordability comes from the fact that wages have not kept up with the expansion of corporate earnings (the driver of the S&P) and the price of housing. THAT is the problem. Not the price of housing
Housing appears to be fairly valued.
my main point is that when people say stuff like "My parents bought a house for 250k and mine costs 1.5 mil" they see those two prices and think bubble. While in reality, from pure price appreciation, it has barely kept up with the market.
The real cause of low affordability is not that houses are too high. It is that wages have grown slower than corporate earnigs (aka the S&P)
https://www.paragon-re.com/trend/bay-area-market-survey
Last edited by HappyinCali; 08-01-2017 at 01:33 PM ..
08-01-2017, 01:19 PM
Location: Formerly Pleasanton Ca, now in Marietta Ga
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One thing to consider is that the stock market is an investment and they compare it to real estate that people live in and not buy as an investment.
08-01-2017, 01:25 PM
Location: California
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Quote:
Originally Posted by
aslowdodge
One thing to consider is that the stock market is an investment and they compare it to real estate that people live in and not buy as an investment.
Yes. It is a fair point. There are nuances for sure. But my main point is that when people say stuff like "My prents bought a house for 250k and mine costs 1.5 mil" they see those two prices and think bubble. While in reality, from pure price appreciation, it has barely kept up with the market.
08-01-2017, 03:06 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by
HappyinCali
Yes. It is a fair point. There are nuances for sure. But my main point is that when people say stuff like "My prents bought a house for 250k and mine costs 1.5 mil" they see those two prices and think bubble. While in reality, from pure price appreciation, it has barely kept up with the market.
So if CA real estate has under-performed, then TN real estate market must be trash. Since you can buy 20 homesfor the price of 1 in CA. lol
08-01-2017, 03:33 PM
Location: California
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Quote:
Originally Posted by
taimaishu
So if CA real estate has under-performed, then TN real estate market must be trash. Since you can buy 20 homesfor the price of 1 in CA. lol
yes, it is bad. the chart shows that the appreciation for the US is only 3.3%
08-01-2017, 03:35 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by
HappyinCali
yes, it is bad. the chart shows that the appreciation for the US is only 3.3%
It's also essential shelter.
08-01-2017, 03:54 PM
Location: SoCal
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Quote:
Originally Posted by
HappyinCali
yes, it is bad. the chart shows that the appreciation for the US is only 3.3%
The caveat is you bought it with cash. Who would do that? It's leverage 20/80. Plus you have to live somewhere.
08-01-2017, 04:17 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by
NewbieHere
The caveat is you bought it with cash. Who would do that? It's leverage 20/80. Plus you have to live somewhere.
agree 100%. they should compute the appreciation/return on the DP
08-01-2017, 04:23 PM
Location: California
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Quote:
Originally Posted by
payutenyodagimas
agree 100%. they should compute the appreciation/return on the DP
That was addressed in the post. Literally in the first sentence. I will say it again.
my main point is that when people say stuff like "My parents bought a house for 250k and mine costs 1.5 mil" they see those two prices and think bubble. While in reality, from pure price appreciation, it has barely kept up with the market.
08-01-2017, 04:59 PM
Location: San Diego
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I bought in 98 and my home has actually done better than my stocks but beach property just took off more.
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Median household income ($)
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Household income diversity
Ratio of average income to average house value (%)
Ratio of average income to average rent
Median household income ($) - White
Median household income ($) - Black or African American
Median household income ($) - Asian
Median household income ($) - Hispanic or Latino
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Races - White alone (%)
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Races - American Indian alone (%)
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Racial diversity
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Coronavirus confirmed cases (Apr 19, 2024)
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Hospitalized patients (Apr 18, 2022)
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Likely homosexual households (%)
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Cost of living index
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Mean house or condo value by units in structure - 1, detached ($)
Mean house or condo value by units in structure - 1, attached ($)
Mean house or condo value by units in structure - 2 ($)
Mean house or condo value by units in structure by units in structure - 3 or 4 ($)
Mean house or condo value by units in structure - 5 or more ($)
Mean house or condo value by units in structure - Boat, RV, van, etc. ($)
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Travel time to work - 60 to 89 minutes (%)
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Marital status - Never married (%)
Marital status - Now married (%)
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Marital status - Divorced (%)
Median family income ($)
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Median family income ($) - American Indian and Alaska Native
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Median year house/condo built
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Year house built - Built 2005 or later (%)
Year house built - Built 2000 to 2004 (%)
Year house built - Built 1990 to 1999 (%)
Year house built - Built 1980 to 1989 (%)
Year house built - Built 1970 to 1979 (%)
Year house built - Built 1960 to 1969 (%)
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Year house built - Built 1939 or earlier (%)
Average household size
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Occupied housing units (%)
Vacant housing units (%)
Owner occupied housing units (%)
Renter occupied housing units (%)
Vacancy status - For rent (%)
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Vacancy status - Rented or sold, not occupied (%)
Vacancy status - For seasonal, recreational, or occasional use (%)
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Residents with income below the poverty level (%)
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Children below poverty level (%)
Poor families by family type - Married-couple family (%)
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Poverty status for native-born residents (%)
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Poverty among high school graduates not in families (%)
Poverty among people who did not graduate high school not in families (%)
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Air pollution - Air Quality Index (AQI)
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Crime - Auto thefts per 100,000 population
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Crime - City-data.com crime index
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Crime - Murders per 100,000 population (5 year average)
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Crime - Assaults per 100,000 population (5 year average)
Crime - Burglaries per 100,000 population (5 year average)
Crime - Thefts per 100,000 population (5 year average)
Crime - Auto thefts per 100,000 population (5 year average)
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Crime - City-data.com crime index (5 year average)
Crime - Violent crime index (5 year average)
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1996 Presidential Elections Results (%) - Democratic Party (Clinton)
1996 Presidential Elections Results (%) - Republican Party (Dole)
1996 Presidential Elections Results (%) - Other
2000 Presidential Elections Results (%) - Democratic Party (Gore)
2000 Presidential Elections Results (%) - Republican Party (Bush)
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2004 Presidential Elections Results (%) - Democratic Party (Kerry)
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2008 Presidential Elections Results (%) - Republican Party (McCain)
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2012 Presidential Elections Results (%) - Democratic Party (Obama)
2012 Presidential Elections Results (%) - Republican Party (Romney)
2012 Presidential Elections Results (%) - Other
2016 Presidential Elections Results (%) - Democratic Party (Clinton)
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2016 Presidential Elections Results (%) - Other
2020 Presidential Elections Results (%) - Democratic Party (Biden)
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2020 Presidential Elections Results (%) - Other
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Educational Attainment - No schooling completed (%)
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Educational Attainment - Associate degree (%)
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Urban houses (%)
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Mean number of vehichles in owner occupied houses
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Mean number of vehichles in renter occupied houses
Mortgage status - with mortgage (%)
Mortgage status - with second mortgage (%)
Mortgage status - with home equity loan (%)
Mortgage status - with both second mortgage and home equity loan (%)
Mortgage status - without a mortgage (%)
Average family size
Average family size - White
Average family size - Black or African American
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Geographical mobility - Same house 1 year ago (%)
Geographical mobility - Moved within same county (%)
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Geographical mobility - Moved from different state (%)
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Place of birth - Born in state of residence (%)
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Housing units in structures - 1, detached (%)
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Housing units in structures - 5 to 9 (%)
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Housing units in structures - 20 to 49 (%)
Housing units in structures - 50 or more (%)
Housing units in structures - Mobile home (%)
Housing units in structures - Boat, RV, van, etc. (%)
House/condo owner moved in on average (years ago)
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Year householder moved into unit - Moved in 1999 to March 2000 (%)
Year householder moved into unit - Moved in 1995 to 1998 (%)
Year householder moved into unit - Moved in 1990 to 1994 (%)
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Means of transportation to work - Drove car alone (%)
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Means of transportation to work - Public transportation (%)
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Working at home (%)
Industry diversity
Most Common Industries - Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting, and mining (%)
Most Common Industries - Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting (%)
Most Common Industries - Mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction (%)
Most Common Industries - Construction (%)
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Occupation diversity
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Most Common Occupations - Architecture and engineering occupations (%)
Most Common Occupations - Life, physical, and social science occupations (%)
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Most Common Occupations - Education, training, and library occupations (%)
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Most Common Occupations - Food preparation and serving related occupations (%)
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People in Group quarters - Institutionalized population (%)
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People in Group quarters - Institutions for the deaf (%)
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People in Group quarters - Orthopedic wards and institutions for the physically handicapped (%)
People in Group quarters - Wards in general hospitals for patients who have no usual home elsewhere (%)
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People in Group quarters - Military quarters (%)
People in Group quarters - On base (%)
People in Group quarters - Barracks, unaccompanied personnel housing (UPH), (Enlisted/Officer), ;and similar group living quarters for military personnel (%)
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Residents speaking English at home (%)
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Class of Workers - Employee of private company (%)
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Class of Workers - Local government workers (%)
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Class of Workers - Self-employed workers in own not incorporated business and Unpaid family workers (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Utility gas (%)
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House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Coal or coke (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Wood (%)
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House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Other fuel (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - No fuel used (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Utility gas (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Bottled, tank, or LP gas (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Electricity (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Fuel oil, kerosene, etc. (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Coal or coke (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Wood (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Solar energy (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Other fuel (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - No fuel used (%)
Armed forces status - In Armed Forces (%)
Armed forces status - Civilian (%)
Armed forces status - Civilian - Veteran (%)
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Fatal accidents locations in years 2005-2021
Fatal accidents locations in 2005
Fatal accidents locations in 2006
Fatal accidents locations in 2007
Fatal accidents locations in 2008
Fatal accidents locations in 2009
Fatal accidents locations in 2010
Fatal accidents locations in 2011
Fatal accidents locations in 2012
Fatal accidents locations in 2013
Fatal accidents locations in 2014
Fatal accidents locations in 2015
Fatal accidents locations in 2016
Fatal accidents locations in 2017
Fatal accidents locations in 2018
Fatal accidents locations in 2019
Fatal accidents locations in 2020
Fatal accidents locations in 2021
Alcohol use - People drinking some alcohol every month (%)
Alcohol use - People not drinking at all (%)
Alcohol use - Average days/month drinking alcohol
Alcohol use - Average drinks/week
Alcohol use - Average days/year people drink much
Audiometry - Average condition of hearing (%)
Audiometry - People that can hear a whisper from across a quiet room (%)
Audiometry - People that can hear normal voice from across a quiet room (%)
Audiometry - Ears ringing, roaring, buzzing (%)
Audiometry - Had a job exposure to loud noise (%)
Audiometry - Had off-work exposure to loud noise (%)
Blood Pressure & Cholesterol - Has high blood pressure (%)
Blood Pressure & Cholesterol - Checking blood pressure at home (%)
Blood Pressure & Cholesterol - Frequently checking blood cholesterol (%)
Blood Pressure & Cholesterol - Has high cholesterol level (%)
Consumer Behavior - Money monthly spent on food at supermarket/grocery store
Consumer Behavior - Money monthly spent on food at other stores
Consumer Behavior - Money monthly spent on eating out
Consumer Behavior - Money monthly spent on carryout/delivered foods
Consumer Behavior - Income spent on food at supermarket/grocery store (%)
Consumer Behavior - Income spent on food at other stores (%)
Consumer Behavior - Income spent on eating out (%)
Consumer Behavior - Income spent on carryout/delivered foods (%)
Current Health Status - General health condition (%)
Current Health Status - Blood donors (%)
Current Health Status - Has blood ever tested for HIV virus (%)
Current Health Status - Left-handed people (%)
Dermatology - People using sunscreen (%)
Diabetes - Diabetics (%)
Diabetes - Had a blood test for high blood sugar (%)
Diabetes - People taking insulin (%)
Diet Behavior & Nutrition - Diet health (%)
Diet Behavior & Nutrition - Milk product consumption (# of products/month)
Diet Behavior & Nutrition - Meals not home prepared (#/week)
Diet Behavior & Nutrition - Meals from fast food or pizza place (#/week)
Diet Behavior & Nutrition - Ready-to-eat foods (#/month)
Diet Behavior & Nutrition - Frozen meals/pizza (#/month)
Drug Use - People that ever used marijuana or hashish (%)
Drug Use - Ever used hard drugs (%)
Drug Use - Ever used any form of cocaine (%)
Drug Use - Ever used heroin (%)
Drug Use - Ever used methamphetamine (%)
Health Insurance - People covered by health insurance (%)
Kidney Conditions-Urology - Avg. # of times urinating at night
Medical Conditions - People with asthma (%)
Medical Conditions - People with anemia (%)
Medical Conditions - People with psoriasis (%)
Medical Conditions - People with overweight (%)
Medical Conditions - Elderly people having difficulties in thinking or remembering (%)
Medical Conditions - People who ever received blood transfusion (%)
Medical Conditions - People having trouble seeing even with glass/contacts (%)
Medical Conditions - People with arthritis (%)
Medical Conditions - People with gout (%)
Medical Conditions - People with congestive heart failure (%)
Medical Conditions - People with coronary heart disease (%)
Medical Conditions - People with angina pectoris (%)
Medical Conditions - People who ever had heart attack (%)
Medical Conditions - People who ever had stroke (%)
Medical Conditions - People with emphysema (%)
Medical Conditions - People with thyroid problem (%)
Medical Conditions - People with chronic bronchitis (%)
Medical Conditions - People with any liver condition (%)
Medical Conditions - People who ever had cancer or malignancy (%)
Mental Health - People who have little interest in doing things (%)
Mental Health - People feeling down, depressed, or hopeless (%)
Mental Health - People who have trouble sleeping or sleeping too much (%)
Mental Health - People feeling tired or having little energy (%)
Mental Health - People with poor appetite or overeating (%)
Mental Health - People feeling bad about themself (%)
Mental Health - People who have trouble concentrating on things (%)
Mental Health - People moving or speaking slowly or too fast (%)
Mental Health - People having thoughts they would be better off dead (%)
Oral Health - Average years since last visit a dentist
Oral Health - People embarrassed because of mouth (%)
Oral Health - People with gum disease (%)
Oral Health - General health of teeth and gums (%)
Oral Health - Average days a week using dental floss/device
Oral Health - Average days a week using mouthwash for dental problem
Oral Health - Average number of teeth
Pesticide Use - Households using pesticides to control insects (%)
Pesticide Use - Households using pesticides to kill weeds (%)
Physical Activity - People doing vigorous-intensity work activities (%)
Physical Activity - People doing moderate-intensity work activities (%)
Physical Activity - People walking or bicycling (%)
Physical Activity - People doing vigorous-intensity recreational activities (%)
Physical Activity - People doing moderate-intensity recreational activities (%)
Physical Activity - Average hours a day doing sedentary activities
Physical Activity - Average hours a day watching TV or videos
Physical Activity - Average hours a day using computer
Physical Functioning - People having limitations keeping them from working (%)
Physical Functioning - People limited in amount of work they can do (%)
Physical Functioning - People that need special equipment to walk (%)
Physical Functioning - People experiencing confusion/memory problems (%)
Physical Functioning - People requiring special healthcare equipment (%)
Prescription Medications - Average number of prescription medicines taking
Preventive Aspirin Use - Adults 40+ taking low-dose aspirin (%)
Reproductive Health - Vaginal deliveries (%)
Reproductive Health - Cesarean deliveries (%)
Reproductive Health - Deliveries resulted in a live birth (%)
Reproductive Health - Pregnancies resulted in a delivery (%)
Reproductive Health - Women breastfeeding newborns (%)
Reproductive Health - Women that had a hysterectomy (%)
Reproductive Health - Women that had both ovaries removed (%)
Reproductive Health - Women that have ever taken birth control pills (%)
Reproductive Health - Women taking birth control pills (%)
Reproductive Health - Women that have ever used Depo-Provera or injectables (%)
Reproductive Health - Women that have ever used female hormones (%)
Sexual Behavior - People 18+ that ever had sex (vaginal, anal, or oral) (%)
Sexual Behavior - Males 18+ that ever had vaginal sex with a woman (%)
Sexual Behavior - Males 18+ that ever performed oral sex on a woman (%)
Sexual Behavior - Males 18+ that ever had anal sex with a woman (%)
Sexual Behavior - Males 18+ that ever had any sex with a man (%)
Sexual Behavior - Females 18+ that ever had vaginal sex with a man (%)
Sexual Behavior - Females 18+ that ever performed oral sex on a man (%)
Sexual Behavior - Females 18+ that ever had anal sex with a man (%)
Sexual Behavior - Females 18+ that ever had any kind of sex with a woman (%)
Sexual Behavior - Average age people first had sex
Sexual Behavior - Average number of female sex partners in lifetime (males 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of female vaginal sex partners in lifetime (males 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average age people first performed oral sex on a woman (18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of woman performed oral sex on in lifetime (18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of male sex partners in lifetime (males 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of male anal sex partners in lifetime (males 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average age people first performed oral sex on a man (18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of male oral sex partners in lifetime (18+)
Sexual Behavior - People using protection when performing oral sex (%)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of times people have vaginal or anal sex a year
Sexual Behavior - People having sex without condom (%)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of male sex partners in lifetime (females 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of male vaginal sex partners in lifetime (females 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of female sex partners in lifetime (females 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Circumcised males 18+ (%)
Sleep Disorders - Average hours sleeping at night
Sleep Disorders - People that has trouble sleeping (%)
Smoking-Cigarette Use - People smoking cigarettes (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ having problems with smell (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ having problems with taste (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ that ever had wisdom teeth removed (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ that ever had tonsils teeth removed (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ that ever had a loss of consciousness because of a head injury (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ that ever had a broken nose or other serious injury to face or skull (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ that ever had two or more sinus infections (%)
Weight - Average height (inches)
Weight - Average weight (pounds)
Weight - Average BMI
Weight - People that are obese (%)
Weight - People that ever were obese (%)
Weight - People trying to lose weight (%)
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