San Jose Mercury News: "Stop the California bullet train in its tracks" (Los Angeles: how much, house)

[checkup]

https://www.mercurynews.com/2018/01/...in-its-tracks/

"Voters in 2008 were promised a system stretching from San Diego to
Sacramento that would cost $45 billion. Now the plans are for linking Los
Angeles and San Francisco at a price of $64 billion, estimated in 2016. That tab
will likely increase when the rail authority releases new numbers in March.

Voters also were told private money would cover much of the construction cost,
but none has come so far. And about a third of the funding would come from the
federal government, which now seems unlikely with the end of the rail-friendly
Obama administration.

Now, the entire ænancing strategy presumes that this federal and private money
will pour in after the authority builds an operating segment.

So, after receiving voter approval for $9 billion of state bonds to use toward a
system running most of the length of the state, the authority plans to blow all
that money and more on a segment from near Bakersæeld to San Jose.
But, according to a Los Angeles Times report, the ærst portion of that segment,
from near Bakersæeld to Madera, is way over budget. It was originally estimated
at $6 billion, but is now forecast to come in at $10.6 billion.

That was supposed to be the easy segment to build. Imagine what happens
when construction involves boring through mountains or entering urban areas
with other railroads and highway systems converging. Private investors will be
hiding their wallets."

[Crashj007]

Put the money in roads and build AI self driving cars. Do the math . . .

[davidt1]

Expect to pay more taxes. Rail public employee unions won't let this project get abandoned. It's their benefits and pensions.

[checkup]

What bothers me about the high speed rail project:

1. Did anything really think the initial projections of cost (of $45B) or time to completion would even come close? Any large scale public project like this needs a "X2" or "X3" factor applied to the cost and timeline

2. To the extent this money is spent, it would have been far better spent on finding ways to relieve traffic within large metros like SF/SV, LA, and SD -- more highways, lanes, commuter rail, buses, subways within city cores, etc. Metro area traffic is a real problem that affects 20+ million ppl in California everyday and studies show increases in commute times. I haven't heard too many complaints from ppl about traffic and lack of options for traveling between cities in California (seems like there are plenty of flights between SF and LA and how many ppl in SF/LA/SD need to often travel to and from Central/inland California?)

[1AngryTaxPayer]

A wall sounds like a bargain compared to this train wreck, pun intended.

[citizensadvocate]

Interesting this CAHSR is actually much cheaper to build compared to BART on a per mile bases. Back in the 2000s it was stated this HSR project would cost $35 billion total but the six mile extension of BART from Fremont to Santa Clara costs $6.1 billion. I could imagine if we have to built BART from scratch today it would probably cost even more than building the CAHSR system.

[checkup]

Originally Posted by citizensadvocate

Interesting this CAHSR is actually much cheaper to build compared to BART on a per mile bases. Back in the 2000s it was stated this HSR project would cost $35 billion total but the six mile extension of BART from Fremont to Santa Clara costs $6.1 billion. I could imagine if we have to built BART from scratch today it would probably cost even more than building the CAHSR system.

a) BART usually goes underground and/or through dense urban areas

b) the projections are low per mile precisely because they underestimated by at least a factor of 2. HSR isn't going to cost $35B; it's going to be closer to $100B

[NoMoreSnowForMe]

Nobody ever expects any construction estimate to translate into real-life after it's all said and done.

This is true whether you're talking about putting a roof on your house or building a new one.

So, ho hum. Nothing surprising here.

[citizensadvocate]

Originally Posted by checkup

a) BART usually goes underground and/or through dense urban areas

b) the projections are low per mile precisely because they underestimated by at least a factor of 2. HSR isn't going to cost $35B; it's going to be closer to $100B

True the projections arnt going to be accurate. And was done a while ago so it was not adjusted for inflated the cost of living and the value of the dollar. The Silicon Valley BART extension may as well cost $10billion in today’s dollars. Interesting the projected cost for a one way ticket between NorCal and SoCal now was $50 in the 1990s now I guess it’s $85-$90.

I can imagine how much it would cost to build BART from scratch these days. Though I believe there will be a lot of tunneling under urban areas for CAHSR too. And probably a complete redesign of rail stations such as

Though one thing is for certain the longer they delay the project the higher the cost will run.

China planned their HSR system at similar time as California and now they build the world’s largest system but their cost is still lower than this single line is projected to cost.
Though We cannot not always just say that China is successful because the state owns all land. As in Japan it’s totally the opposite and very difficult to secure an eminent domain permit due to historically strong property right laws, yet they had build such a successful system over the years.

[NoMoreSnowForMe]

Originally Posted by citizensadvocate

True the projections arnt going to be accurate. And was done a while ago so it was not adjusted for inflated the cost of living and the value of the dollar. The Silicon Valley BART extension may as well cost $10billion in today’s dollars. Interesting the projected cost for a one way ticket between NorCal and SoCal now was $50 in the 1990s now I guess it’s $85-$90.

I can imagine how much it would cost to build BART from scratch these days. Though I believe there will be a lot of tunneling under urban areas for CAHSR too. And probably a complete redesign of rail stations such as

Though one thing is for certain the longer they delay the project the higher the cost will run.

China planned their HSR system at similar time as California and now they build the world’s largest system but their cost is still lower than this single line is projected to cost.
Though We cannot not always just say that China is successful because the state owns all land. As in Japan it’s totally the opposite and very difficult to secure an eminent domain permit due to historically strong property right laws, yet they had build such a successful system over the years.

I kind of doubt China paid union wages, either.