THE SKY IS FALLI...Never mind (rentals, salaries, live in)

[stablegenius]

Originally Posted by Hulsker 1856

You hit on it right there.

It's not that California is failing, it's that a certain segment of American society desperately wants it to fail. That ia hasn't causes them great disappointment.

Generally, they just can't accept that since the complete Democratic takeover of California's government, along with an increase in taxes and regulations, the state is absolutely booming. Meanwhile, over in Kansas the massive tax cuts have led to a massive deficit, which has been dealt with by halting infrastructure maintenance, cutting Medicaid, halting pension contributions, closing schools and the like.

Since the dogma of this crowd holds that tax cuts will spur growth and that tax hikes will prompt downturns, they simply cannot accept the reality of what actually happens when when these comparative policies are enacted in the laboratory known as the real world.

So they click their ruby heels together, close their eyes, and whisper "California is failing, California is failing, California is failing..." until they finally convince themselves that it is.

California will probably never fully fail, it's simply too big, with too many people and unless Hollywood and Silicon Valley go completely belly up, it ain't happening.... BUT

Since the top 1% pay 48% of the taxes, California is going to take a serious hit next time there is a recession. Why you say? Because most of their earnings are based on capital gains, which will drop when the next recession hits. And even though the recession won't kill California, the people that live there are going to feel some serious pain, be it through service cuts or yet more tax increases.

If you don't believe this, I've provided a source, from a liberal rag like the LA Times no less:
When it comes to paying taxes, California is Bernie Sanders' kind of state

[Ultrarunner]

The question is, "Is it sustainable?"

I've already seen it where as manufacturing was alive and well and it has all but left...

I have a lot of of Law Enforcement friends and almost down to the last one the take their pension money and home sale profits and leave never looking back.

These are individuals with 100k+ pensions in their 50's...

I could go to Arizona, Nevada, Oregon, Washington and Idaho and spend a year just visiting friends... for some reason Idaho is a popular spot for the retired MD I know.

One would think if California is all that... why would so many that are in solid financial footing leave?

Originally Posted by Hulsker 1856

You hit on it right there.

It's not that California is failing, it's that a certain segment of American society desperately wants it to fail. That ia hasn't causes them great disappointment.

Generally, they just can't accept that since the complete Democratic takeover of California's government, along with an increase in taxes and regulations, the state is absolutely booming. Meanwhile, over in Kansas the massive tax cuts have led to a massive deficit, which has been dealt with by halting infrastructure maintenance, cutting Medicaid, halting pension contributions, closing schools and the like.

Since the dogma of this crowd holds that tax cuts will spur growth and that tax hikes will prompt downturns, they simply cannot accept the reality of what actually happens when when these comparative policies are enacted in the laboratory known as the real world.

So they click their ruby heels together, close their eyes, and whisper "California is failing, California is failing, California is failing..." until they finally convince themselves that it is.

[CA4Now]

Originally Posted by stablegenius

Since the top 1% pay 48% of the taxes, California is going to take a serious hit next time there is a recession. Why you say? Because most of their earnings are based on capital gains, which will drop when the next recession hits. And even though the recession won't kill California, the people that live there are going to feel some serious pain, be it through service cuts or yet more tax increases.

That's what we heard in 2008. However, people in the entire country felt "some serious pain." And the Bay Area did better than southern California as far as recovering. As you said, it's a big state.

[CA4Now]

Originally Posted by Ultrarunner

One would think if California is all that... why would so many that are in solid financial footing leave?

Most likely because they're on a fixed income and their $ will undoubtedly go further in state with a lower COL.

I know of zero retirees IRL who are leaving--or planning to leave--the state. And if you look at the retirement forum here, there are long threads about the possibility of retiring in California....when the posters have spent their entire lives in another state.

[Ultrarunner]

What does IRL mean?

Also... I need to clarify... all those I referenced live in the SF Bay Area... which may or may not be representative of California proper.

When I visit friends in Medford... they tell me almost everyone of their neighbors have California ties...

Up in Washington and Sun Valley Idaho you can't go anywhere with running in California Expats.

I remember growing up in the SF Bay Area... about 1/3 the grade school class was new to California... lots of military and engineer families... I collected license plates and have hundreds from cars that were trade ins with out of State Plates... the same Dealer gets almost none today... nada...

Just my observations.

[CA4Now]

Originally Posted by Ultrarunner

What does IRL mean?

In real life.

[CA4Now]

Originally Posted by Ultrarunner

I need to clarify... all those I referenced live in the SF Bay Area... which may or may not be representative of California proper.

I remember growing up in the SF Bay Area... about 1/3 the grade school class was new to California... lots of military and engineer families

Growing up in southern California, I recall many of my parents' friends who grew up here, went to UCLA or USC, and had a lot of extended family here. (My parents moved here from the Midwest when they were in their early 20s.)

Originally Posted by Ultrarunner

When I visit friends in Medford... they tell me almost everyone of their neighbors have California ties...

Up in Washington and Sun Valley Idaho you can't go anywhere with running in California Expats.

We know a few soon to be retirees--or those who retired early--who have bought a second home elsewhere (Bend, OR seems to be popular, or they have a condo in FL) but are maintaining their own home here. They have too many ties here to leave completely: grown kids, grandchildren, their own parent(s), long time friendships.

[expatCA]

Originally Posted by CA4Now

Most likely because they're on a fixed income and their $ will undoubtedly go further in state with a lower COL.

I know of zero retirees IRL who are leaving--or planning to leave--the state. And if you look at the retirement forum here, there are long threads about the possibility of retiring in California....when the posters have spent their entire lives in another state.

CA will not fail.



However taxes and fees will keep going up. The GDP has minimal impact on most peoples day to day life, but the continuous rise in COL does. The rich will likely not leave, the poor will likely not leave, it is the middle class hurting. Yes it is claimed the poor are leaving, but the actual meaning when the income is examined is the middle class (Poor in CA but not in other States). Again more people leave CA for another State than move from another State to CA. Does this impact the State? Yep higher COL for those remaining as the ones moving in, especially foreigners, cause the prices of housing to go up. The State will stay beautiful, but the COL is already ugly for many.


An example of why the GDP has minimal impact, is the continuing decay of the roads.

[Ultrarunner]

Originally Posted by CA4Now

In real life.

Thank you...

[Ultrarunner]

Originally Posted by CA4Now

We know a few soon to be retirees--or those who retired early--who have bought a second home elsewhere (Bend, OR seems to be popular, or they have a condo in FL) but are maintaining their own home here. They have too many ties here to leave completely: grown kids, grandchildren, their own parent(s), long time friendships.

In my little corner of the Bay Area we seem to have gone to weekly retirement parties at the Hospital.

The topic of discussion is always how much over asking they just sold their Bay Area home and how cheap and how large or how new their retirement home is.

This month so far, two of our RN have bought in Arizona... Gilbert and Flagstaff... the one going to Gilbert searched for about 2 years looking for her "Mayberry" as she calls it.

Last year the CEO sold and moved to Beaverton because her son and grand kids live there.

Come to think of it... the majority of work are moving to where their kids now live... be it Oregon, Washington or Idaho... for some reason, Idaho is immensely popular with Docs leaving followed by Oregon.

Daily Water Cooler talk revolves Real Estate prices... my brother has had back to back record years mostly listing homes of those leaving California.

It could be as simple as your post... people leaving often do so to be closer to family in other states.

Texas was very popular for a time... but not so much here... Oregon remains ever popular.

From my brother's prospective... those buying the homes he has listed are more often than not foreign born... the Bay Area is very much a Mecca for foreign born...