Moving to Simi Valley (Thousand Oaks, Moorpark: insurance, house, YMCA)

[Charles]

Originally Posted by Lovehound

So you bought it and sold it in an "up" market. Now it's a "down" market. There is no comparison.

I bought my house in '78 for $62K. It was worth $500K last year, now $400K. Is today's market an up market or a down market for me?

Fair question.

Here's how to look at it. How does the ratio of median house price to median income compare in 1978, 1997, 2006, and 2008?

I'd bet the ratios were about the same and more "rational" in 1978 and 1997.

Did median incomes triple between 1997 and 2006?

To answer your question, it is still an up market. A lot of people think the current prices, especially in Southern California are unsustainable. Historically the the home price to income ratio is 2.8. California is already heavily taxed (state income tax of 9.9%) and the state is going broke.

So what does this mean? Housing prices are not done falling.

[Fleet]

Simi Valley certainly does not have 90 degree days every day from April to September. Where I live, which is a little warmer than SV, it cooled to 75 for the high temp today and 83 yesterday.

[Humanoid]

California is already heavily taxed (state income tax of 9.9%) and the state is going broke.

The taxes in California are pretty progressive. The state income tax is not 9.9%, that is like saying the federal income tax is 50% (15% for SS 35% for income tax). California's state income tax is bracketed just like federal tax and you get deductions just like federal. Families in the median don't pay anywhere near 9.3% on their income, its more like 2~4% depending on the number of deductions. When the tax system is bracketed there is a big difference between the percentage you pay in taxes and the marginal tax rate. A family will only pay 9.3% on taxable income above $87,000 so with a family with a few kids a house etc you'll have to make more than $130~$140k before ANY income is even taxed at 9.3%. This is also not to mention that property tax in California is pretty low too.

Historically the the home price to income ratio is 2.8.

Historically Southern California is more in the 3.0~3.5 range, people do tend to spend more of their income on housing here. But different areas do vary, I think looking at rents is a better way to do things. In the case above the house would rent for around $3,600~$3,800 a month. Assuming you put 20% down, just your mortgage payment on it would be $5,000 a month (Assuming 7%), the PITI is around $6,000. In other words things need to come down a lot for it to make sense.

[Lovehound]

Originally Posted by Charles

To answer your question, it is still an up market. ... Housing prices are not done falling.

Uh... Ah... Okay.

[cassiekty]

Hi--I posted regarding our Wood Ranch home that we are selling at $925,000--I was actually just sharing info with people who might want to see the home in the area, but didn't expect others (somebody named Humanoid) to start quoting prices--the actual comps for our house currently are $950,000 by the way--you need to know exactly what you are comparing before you quote incorrect comps to people. Our house is an oversized view lot on a cul de sac that you are correct in saying it is worth more--the actual comps for that house are $945 & $950,000. If you are an actual interested buyer, I will be more than hapoy to forward more info & photos. My husband is a well known pop artist who designed the interior of the entire home & has been featured on HGTV, MTV "Cribs" & VH1 "Fabulous Life of"--it is a unique house to be sure. There is more to it than this person knows before he starts throwing around general comps for small lot homes with no upgrades, no view, etc...The bottom line is in this market if you see the home, you decide if it makes you fall in love with it and then you speak to the seller.

[Humanoid]

starts throwing around general comps for small lot homes with no upgrades, no view, etc...

WoodRanch is filled with 1990's/2000's track homes...they ALL have small lots. All the houses are decently updated. So, within a $50,000 mergin of error you can compare comps without looking inside. Despite the nonsense on HGTV upgrades do not magically increase the value of your house, any increase is rather limited.
Someone can easily get a house in the 3000 s/f range with upgrades, a view in the $750~$800 range, here are some more that are for sale:

543 Granite Hills St, Simi Valley, CA 93065 | Zillow Real Estate
593 Blue Sky Cir, Simi Valley, CA 93065 | Zillow Real Estate
164 Brooks Ct, Simi Valley, CA 93065 | Zillow Real Estate

The fact remains someone can rent a similar sized house for around $3,600, well below the cost to "own". And someone can buy a house that is 500 s/f BIGGER in the same area for $780,000 (It had a view, btw)

[Winston Smith]

IMO the best thing about Simi Valley is hiking in Rocky Peak Park. Second-to-best thing, napping under an oak in the Knolls park during the summer heat. The second-to-worst thing is the summer heat. The worst thing is the radioactive pollution at the Rocketdyne Field Lab at Santa Susana. What's the status on cleanup, anyway?

[notmeofficer]

Originally Posted by cre8

IMO the best thing about Simi Valley is hiking in Rocky Peak Park. Second-to-best thing, napping under an oak in the Knolls park during the summer heat. The second-to-worst thing is the summer heat. The worst thing is the radioactive pollution at the Rocketdyne Field Lab at Santa Susana. What's the status on cleanup, anyway?

You forgot the jet fuel thats seeped underground and polluted the ground water.. I have a friend who lives in downtown simi on an old ranch passed down through his family.. its 3 acres right in the middle of the city.. and the groundwater/his well is highly polluted with toxic fuel.. they settled with him.. but the brew is still there

[Charles]

Originally Posted by notmeofficer

You forgot the jet fuel thats seeped underground and polluted the ground water.. I have a friend who lives in downtown simi on an old ranch passed down through his family.. its 3 acres right in the middle of the city.. and the groundwater/his well is highly polluted with toxic fuel.. they settled with him.. but the brew is still there

Where are you referring to with "downtown Simi"?

The government center area near Tapo Canyon and Alamo?
The original neighborhood of Simi near 1st and LA?
The Santa Susana neighborhood on the far southeast corner of the valley?

How would jet fuel have seeped into the area you are referring to? Jet fuel?

[Winston Smith]

Originally Posted by notmeofficer

You forgot the jet fuel thats seeped underground and polluted the ground water.. I have a friend who lives in downtown simi on an old ranch passed down through his family.. its 3 acres right in the middle of the city.. and the groundwater/his well is highly polluted with toxic fuel.. they settled with him.. but the brew is still there

You are correct, pollution coming from the field lab; that's what I was referring to. Some people who worked at the lab have died from cancer caused by contaminants in the H2O.

I've also heard that radon gas is an issue in Simi.