When is the Next CA Housing Price Collapse Supposed to Happen? (rentals, taxes)

[CA4Now]

The housing market’s chill grew colder in December, as sales plunged across Southern California and home prices barely rose.

The 12-month price increase is the smallest since prices started their steady upward climb in April 2012, after declining slightly a month earlier. And December’s median price is now $22,000 below June’s all-time of $537,000.

While the median — the point at which half the homes sold for more and half for less — can fluctuate month to month, Wednesday’s report is the latest indication of a substantial market shift as buyers balk at the high cost of housing.

https://www.latimes.com/business/la-...130-story.html

[JGC97]

^^ Interesting. The other night, while perusing properties in Nevada County, I noticed prices have stalled and, in some instances, dropped. Not sure if it's just this time of year or for other reasons. It can't be due to a huge building boom up there.

My theory is (and only a theory), with the recent fire in Butte County, the cost to insure a property in forest lands could be putting the kibosh on quick sales. One property in Grass Valley was in the middle of restoration. The owner had gutted the entire interior but then decided not to. He and his wife left the state - moved to Washington - so it sits there, a shell ... waiting for someone to breathe life back into it. I would love to know why the change of heart but I'm thinking he found out how much it was going to cost to insure it and decided to turn tail and run. (again, just my theory).

[expatCA]

Originally Posted by CA4Now

The housing market’s chill grew colder in December, as sales plunged across Southern California and home prices barely rose.

The 12-month price increase is the smallest since prices started their steady upward climb in April 2012, after declining slightly a month earlier. And December’s median price is now $22,000 below June’s all-time of $537,000.

While the median — the point at which half the homes sold for more and half for less — can fluctuate month to month, Wednesday’s report is the latest indication of a substantial market shift as buyers balk at the high cost of housing.

https://www.latimes.com/business/la-...130-story.html

Basically a normal flattening in a market,a s it ahs in the past. This is normal and can even include a slight drop in prices for a while. Then as more people make more money, the prices start climbing as sales go up and ... due to the flattening less homes will be built and the ones built will be at the high end of pricing, not the low end. Just check the new builds now.

[CA4Now]

Originally Posted by expatCA

Basically a normal flattening in a market,a s it ahs in the past. This is normal and can even include a slight drop in prices for a while. Then as more people make more money, the prices start climbing as sales go up and ... due to the flattening less homes will be built and the ones built will be at the high end of pricing, not the low end. Just check the new builds now.

I don't know about that. If home sales are as low as they were 12 years ago, that is not normal flattening in a market.

And the higher priced homes are sitting on the market a lot longer than they used to be. Look around your neighborhood. (Oops...you're in Florida, right?)

[1AngryTaxPayer]

Beach areas still high priced and going strong. That won't change. In my opinion, why move to CA if you are hours from the beach? I'd rather live in AZ or NV if I was hours from the main attraction for here.

[aslowdodge]

Originally Posted by 1AngryTaxPayer

Beach areas still high priced and going strong. That won't change. In my opinion, why move to CA if you are hours from the beach? I'd rather live in AZ or NV if I was hours from the main attraction for here.

I agree with you. Many of the people who say california is preferable to living anywhere else mention access to the beach

[JGC97]

39+ million people living in the state and you think it's because they have access to the beach?

[expatCA]

Originally Posted by CA4Now

I don't know about that. If home sales are as low as they were 12 years ago, that is not normal flattening in a market.

And the higher priced homes are sitting on the market a lot longer than they used to be. Look around your neighborhood. (Oops...you're in Florida, right?)

A flattening in the market always includes some drop in pricing, but not a major one like 2008. That is not happening. The only way it would happen if no one could buy unless prices dropped 30 to 40% and that is highly unlikely without a major economic collapse like last time. Then just like then, no one buys and owners end up in foreclosure and ... a fried in SoCal just had his house taken over by the bank after foreclosure notices 6 years ago. He lived rent/mortgage free in it and the bank waited until they could make very good money selling it. This is not uncommon.


Yes most houses are sitting in the market longer, but still eventually selling. This is what has been expected, and is common, by those who have lived in CA for decades and have seen this occur again and again.


Yes I am in FL , but due to the poor air quality. My wife and I were looking at moving to SoCal near the beach but it wasn't worth it. Now I live in FL in a beautiful new home (Cat 5 standard), though no hurricane of any magnitude has hit where we are in nearly 16 years, and it is by the beach. The property taxes would be about 1/2 of what I would pay in SoCal for any of the homes I looked at and if we bought one comparable they prop taxes would be about 3 times what we pay now. We are considering another visit next month or March and were just there in August. The tax savings alone allow us to visit with in effect just that savings paying for week after week of visits, not just one visit.


I love the State, just not what it has become in so many ways. Would I move back? Maybe one day, maybe not. I can easily afford it, but really hate wasting money.To each their own and you may note (and may not) that I have recommended to many that they do move to CA when it fits their needs and finances. I am not a CA hater, just want people to look beyond just the "dream" at the reality and then decide what is best for them.

[CaliRestoration]

There won't be a collapse, but there is going to be a lot of extra taxes coming down the pipe.

I would also keep an eye out on Gavin taking aim at Prop 13.

[aslowdodge]

Originally Posted by HereOnMars

39+ million people living in the state and you think it's because they have access to the beach?

Actually no, I don't myself. Except for those living on the beach I don't find that to be a valid reason, but believe me if you look up threads where people are defending living in Ca, the coastal access come up a lot. They even think those that live inland have the advantages of Coastal access.
But no, not me personally thinking of that