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Old 08-01-2021, 10:11 AM
 
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Maybe this table will help. Since the California energy crash of June 2000, outgoing Governor Gray jumpstarted the construction of 38 new electricity plants despite roughly a 13 year period when no plants were built.

The Nameplate Capacity has increased sharply (10,000 MW between 2011 and 2013) but the Capacity Factor (CF) has dropped just as dramatically as old style coal, nuclear and natural gas are largely replaced with solar and wind.

The blackouts of August 2020 was roughly 5X as widespread as the blackouts of June 2000. But as there was no obvious manipulation of the market (like Enron did in 2000) public reaction has been more muted.

CF Year Nameplate MW
  • 27.1% 2020 80,304
  • 28.7% 2019 79,947
  • 27.3% 2018 81,552
  • 29.4% 2017 80,126
  • 27.5% 2016 82,130
  • 28.1% 2015 79,921
  • 28.4% 2014 80,209
  • 27.8% 2013 81,956
  • 30.4% 2012 74,733
  • 31.7% 2011 72,536
  • 32.8% 2010 71,680
  • 33.8% 2009 69,997
  • 35.4% 2008 67,418
  • 36.4% 2007 66,735
  • 37.7% 2006 66,112
  • 36.0% 2005 64,066
  • 36.9% 2004 61,360
  • 36.1% 2003 61,490
  • 36.6% 2002 58,282
  • 41.6% 2001 55,531

The 2400 MW nameplate capacity of Diablo Canyon is more significant because capacity factor is very high and it is emission free electricity.

These new modular nuclear powered generators that will be built in factories may have only 250 MW of nameplate capacity, so California would need dozens if not hundreds of them to support EVs.

More Wind and Solar is not going to increase capacity factor.

Of course, the idea of a hundred tiny nuclear generators raises some disturbing terrorist scenarios, not to mention plain old nuclear accidents.

No easy solution. Any opinions on small modular reactors out there?
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Old 08-01-2021, 02:01 PM
 
Location: Boydton, VA
4,522 posts, read 6,211,640 times
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"emission free electricity" ....a few emissions would seem a small price to pay considering the plant sits atop a major fault lines.
But nearby residents shouldn't be alarmed...after all, the owner, known as Pacific Graft and Extortion by many (for as long as I can remember), doesn't think it's anything to worry about...they have such a stellar record of public safety why shouldn't they be taken at their word ?

Regards
Gemstone1
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Old 08-01-2021, 04:00 PM
 
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I was surprised to see Grey Davis actually done that yet he was still recalled. For issues caused during the previous governor terms.

I kept hearing the lack of power plant construction was a large factor in the 2000 energy crisis but I guess its much more than that. It was a Texas company that caused that. And Texas got a taste of its own medicine last winter. Deregulation didn't give any competition to most electric customers.



It appears the state was able to keep the media hysteria at bay and handled its potential second energy crisis after SONGs shutdown quietly. Though electric bills did rise considerably. People quietly paid the higher bill without resulting to "setsuden."



I be curious when Microwave and Nuclear Fusion power plants would be introduced.
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Old 08-01-2021, 07:43 PM
 
14,613 posts, read 17,277,792 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by citizensadvocate View Post
I kept hearing the lack of power plant construction was a large factor in the 2000 energy crisis but I guess its much more than that. It was a Texas company that caused that.
Yes there was no evidence of foul play in 2020 like there was in 2000.

Comparing 2020 to 2001 their is 45% more installed capability, but the capacity factor of power plants is down dramatically. In addition to wind and solar having grown by 728%, hydroelectric power is way down with the loss of Oreville Dam and the water shortage. Overall capacity factor went from 41.6% in 2001 to 27.1% in 2020. California is actually producing less electricity in 2020 than it did in 2001.

Peak demand on August 14, 2020 on the day of half a million blackouts was 46.777 GW at 5 PM
Peak demand for the entire year 2001 was 44.659 GW.

Electricity Production
80.30 GW * 27.1% capacity factor * 366*24 hours = 191 TWh of production electricity in leap year 2020
55.53 GW * 41.6% capacity factor * 365*24 hours = 202 TWh of production electricity in regular year 2001

So California is producing no more electricity. Still it's population is increasing and with EVs there is going to be more demand than ever before.
2000 33.63 million
2010 37.27 million
2020 39.37 million

The other problem is that the wind and solar power drops off very rapidly at the end of the day. The blackouts were ordered from 6:30 to 7:00 PM when sunset was 7:40 PM in Los Angeles.

The solution as always is to raise prices. California has by far the highest prices in the Western Interconnect (11 US states) since it must be a net importer of electricity to meet this demand that can't be met by in-state power plants.
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Old 08-01-2021, 09:49 PM
 
3,334 posts, read 2,257,047 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PacoMartin View Post
Yes there was no evidence of foul play in 2020 like there was in 2000.

Comparing 2020 to 2001 their is 45% more installed capability, but the capacity factor of power plants is down dramatically. In addition to wind and solar having grown by 728%, hydroelectric power is way down with the loss of Oreville Dam and the water shortage. Overall capacity factor went from 41.6% in 2001 to 27.1% in 2020. California is actually producing less electricity in 2020 than it did in 2001.

Peak demand on August 14, 2020 on the day of half a million blackouts was 46.777 GW at 5 PM
Peak demand for the entire year 2001 was 44.659 GW.

Electricity Production
80.30 GW * 27.1% capacity factor * 366*24 hours = 191 TWh of production electricity in leap year 2020
55.53 GW * 41.6% capacity factor * 365*24 hours = 202 TWh of production electricity in regular year 2001

So California is producing no more electricity. Still it's population is increasing and with EVs there is going to be more demand than ever before.
2000 33.63 million
2010 37.27 million
2020 39.37 million

The other problem is that the wind and solar power drops off very rapidly at the end of the day. The blackouts were ordered from 6:30 to 7:00 PM when sunset was 7:40 PM in Los Angeles.

The solution as always is to raise prices. California has by far the highest prices in the Western Interconnect (11 US states) since it must be a net importer of electricity to meet this demand that can't be met by in-state power plants.

I be curious when the state would learn that they would need large battery packs, maybe ones created by Tesla at these solar plants and wind farms to capture the power generated during the day or windy times for between sundown and sunup in order to make solar really work?


I noticed that Livermore wind farm has much less windmills than back in the days. Apparently they say their new windmills generates much more power than the old ones is this true? Thus they decommissioned and disassembled most of their wind generators?

It appears Texas kept saying they got Deregulation right and that consumers could shop for competitive power operators in Texas unlike what happened with California's deregulation. Apparently the deregulated market worked "well" in Texas until it didn't last winter.
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Old 08-01-2021, 10:48 PM
 
14,613 posts, read 17,277,792 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by citizensadvocate View Post
I be curious when the state would learn that they would need large battery packs, maybe ones created by Tesla at these solar plants and wind farms to capture the power generated during the day or windy times for between sundown and sunup in order to make solar really work?
Let's try some numbers for a minute.

A stubborn heatwave last summer led to California experiencing four of the five hottest August days since 1985. Death Valley recorded a 130-degree high on Aug. 16, 2020. The heat led to customers across the state to crank up their air conditioners, putting demand on the grid. In addition, extreme heat caused some power sources such as natural gas plants to run less efficiently, reducing output.

On Friday 14 August 491,600 electricity customers of California’s three big investor-owned utilities — San Diego Gas & Electric, Southern California Edison and Pacific Gas & Electric — lost power between 6:30 p.m. and 7 p.m. for anywhere between 15 minutes to 2 1/2 hours.

It was the worst blackout in 20 years since the June 2000 blackouts that were partly responsible for the recall of the California Governor Gray Davis a few years later.

Look at demand numbers for California Independent System Operator (which you can monitor real time if you like).

03:00 PM 44,431 MW 9,979 MW wind and solar
04:00 PM 46,006 MW 9,914 MW wind and solar
05:00 PM 46,777 MW 8,261 MW wind and solar
06:00 PM 46,243 MW 6,235 MW wind and solar
07:00 PM 44,313 MW 2,236 MW wind and solar
...
11:00 PM 36,245 MW with less than 1000 MW wind and solar

Even though peak demand was at 5 PM, the operators were forced to start the rolling blackouts 90 minutes later when the electricity from wind and solar dropped off.

There are 15 million vehicles registered in California. If they were all electric vehicles and half of them were plugged in, you could steal 1 KWh from 7.5 million vehicle batteries for one hour when you most need it. The power could be replaced in the middle of the night, long past the peak demand.

Obviously it is going to be an estimated 25 years until all the vehicles are EVs, and by then demand peaks will be even worse. But in theory EV to GRID might help the electric operators as much as make the demand worse.
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Old 09-18-2021, 02:02 AM
 
14,613 posts, read 17,277,792 times
Reputation: 7781
Default California vs Alaska Electricity Rates

Hawaii has the highest residential electricity rates of any state in the nation. That fact has been true for over fifty years and is unlikely to change in the next few decades.

Alaska is currently #2, and California is ranked #3. But at present Alaska is ahead of California by only 2.1%.

I did a chart to show how much higher California and Alaska were since 2004. It highlights how bad California's electric rates have been increasing over the last 18 months

CA ------- AK
67% 06/30/21 70%
47% 2019 76%
46% 2018 71%
42% 2017 65%
39% 2016 62%
34% 2015 57%
30% 2014 53%
34% 2013 49%
29% 2012 51%
26% 2011 50%
28% 2010 41%
28% 2009 49%
23% 2008 47%
35% 2007 43%
38% 2006 43%
32% 2005 41%
36% 2004 39%

Alaska can tolerate high electric rates as no homes have electric heat, and there is little or no air conditioning. So residential electricity is primarily for lights, refrigeration, laundry, and computers and other appliances. I don't know how much cooking is done with electricity in Alaska.

I know that many older homes have only a single 30 amp circuit for the dryer. Cooking, heating and hot water are done with natural gas. It is possible to have a dryer that runs on natural gas as well.

Most of these statistics are annual numbers. The last one is just for the month of June 2021 and is just for the month.

This statistic is very serious. It means California electric rates are veering completely out of control. California is pushing for complete conversion of all vehicles from gasoline to electric vehicles, the shutting down of the last nuclear power plant, and restrictions on the type of electricity that can be imported from other states, along with the water shortages that may lead to more hydroelectric plants being shut down.

California electric rates 67% above the national average. All but one of the other Western Interconnect states has an electric rate below the national average. New Mexico is above by less than 1%.
  1. +0.9% New Mexico
  2. -5.2% Colorado
  3. -8.6% Arizona
  4. -12.9% Wyoming
  5. -16.8% Montana
  6. -17.2% Oregon
  7. -19.0% Nevada
  8. -21.8% Utah
  9. -26.9% Washington
  10. -28.2% Idaho
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Old 09-02-2022, 03:21 PM
 
Location: So Ca
26,573 posts, read 26,433,288 times
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Diablo Canyon will most likely stay open until 2030 now.

Diablo Canyon, California’s last nuclear power plant, moved a step closer today to remain open past its scheduled 2025 closure date.

State lawmakers approved SB 846, which would keep the plant open for five more years, until 2030, and give its operator, Pacific Gas & Electric, a $1.4 billion loan to do so.


https://calmatters.org/environment/2...re-california/
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Old 09-02-2022, 09:44 PM
 
Location: Sacramento
1,226 posts, read 1,626,425 times
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Diablo Canyon Lives!

Here’s an interview with noted environmental author and recent gubernatorial candidate Michael Shellenberger

Quote:
In the YouTube interview above, I discuss with Dr. Chris Keefer how we built a pro-social, pro-human, pro-nuclear movement, which rejected sectarianism and elitism, to save Diablo Canyon, and other nuclear plants around the world. I hope you’ll tune in.
https://youtu.be/VZVXoyrx7Zo
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Old 09-05-2022, 12:34 PM
 
Location: San Diego
5,544 posts, read 4,504,772 times
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Of course Diablo Canyon has to stay open. CA doesn't have enough electricity to serve it's citizens today, and now the idiot governor is mandating all of to drive electric cars in the future.

Just where does he think all this new-needed electricity is going to come from?
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