Move to California .. or not? (Earthquake, housing prices, etc)? (San Diego: renting, condos)

[Soccersupporter]

Originally Posted by Humanoid

I don't know if you have your head under a rock, but you can buy this sort of house for far below $600k in Orange County now. And I'm not talking about Santa Ana, rather the good areas. I could post multiple listings if you'd like.

Try actually posting a listing instead of a sign in page. Also try something in Orange County, a neighborhood someone would want to live in. I lived in Irvine for 27 years. Try to get close to that.

Like I said in Simi Valley, its a very safe area next to many employers.

Who would want to be exiled to Simi Valley, no offense to Simi Valley residents intended. When I left CA I moved to a similar type community that we lived in Irvine, amenities etc. 3350 sq. ft. home, .27 acre lot in TX that is far better than Simi Valley for substantially less.

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Southern California housing is really easy to understand, its a classic asset bubble. See:

I know it was a bubble. There have been several bubbles in the CA housing market. I lived through them and profited from them. The problem was that even after the bubbles burst most could still not afford the prices.

Amazon.com: Manias, Panics, and Crashes: A History of Financial Crises (Wiley Investment Classics): Charles P. Kindleberger, Robert Aliber, Robert Solow: Books

CA housing is not affordable. Maybe someday it will again but that is very doubtful.

[Humanoid]

CA housing is not affordable. Maybe someday it will again but that is very doubtful.

You are wrong once again. Firstly there are many affordable areas of California, one has to remember Orange County is not the only area in California. Secondly, some areas that were too costly just a year ago are now affordable, such as the inland empire which has seen price drops in the 30~40% range already.

Also, your comments about Simi Valley are ridiculous. The city is pretty comparable to the Lake Forest area and under any metric would be considered a "decent" place. Its safe, next to plenty of employment, has decent schools etc.

And you couldn't pay me to live in Texas, but if you enjoy it thats great.

[Soccersupporter]

Originally Posted by Humanoid

You are wrong once again. Firstly there are many affordable areas of California, one has to remember Orange County is not the only area in California. Secondly, some areas that were too costly just a year ago are now affordable, such as the inland empire which has seen price drops in the 30~40% range already.

Also, your comments about Simi Valley are ridiculous. The city is pretty comparable to the Lake Forest area and under any metric would be considered a "decent" place. Its safe, next to plenty of employment, has decent schools etc.

And you couldn't pay me to live in Texas, but if you enjoy it thats great.

So what do you call affordable because the experts don't agree. CA has one of the least affordable housing markets in the country. Facts do not lie.

I am afraid we will have to agree to disagree. I value my quality of life too much to spend twice as much in the smog filled Inland Empire for less that what I have in TX. BTW the economy in the DFW area is booming, lower unemployement etc.. And TX just passed New York for having the most corporate HQs in their state. Where was CA again, 4th.

To each his own just stick to the facts.

[Roaddog]

As far a earthquakes go, they have always said the big one is on it's way, nothing has changed and some day it will happen but who knows when, mabey 100 years from now mabey today, if it bothers a person then I wouldn
t live here.
Housing is dropping but it's going to depend where you want to live and what type of job you work. I would pick where you want to live, then research the area for employment, housing and such then make up your mind.

[CA4Now]

Originally Posted by Humanoid

I never stated that houses are currently affordable in California, rather that they will be in 1-2 years. But you can easily find a house in a good area for under $300,000 now.

Where? Not in an area that most of us would want to live. Back to the new grad's question. Since he says he went to Berkeley and grew up in Dallas, it's doubtful he'd be happy living in an area of California where the rent is "affordable". Sure you can find something here "affordable"....but as many have stated on this board, that doesn't necessarily mean they like it.

[Humanoid]

Where? Not in an area that most of us would want to live.

I already stated where. And the city is a typical middle-class southern California area. If people don't like it its because 1.) They won't more than a middle-class community, 2.) They don't like Southern California.

So what do you call affordable because the experts don't agree. CA has one of the least affordable housing markets in the country. Facts do not lie.

Nope, facts don't lie. So use them. The fact is the housing situation has improved greatly in California over the last year, in some areas its been rather dramatic. Also, some areas stayed affordable. There are many areas of California that are actually really cheap.

I value my quality of life too much to spend twice as much in the smog filled Inland Empire for less that what I have in TX.

Just to note Simi Valley isn't in the inland empire, the inland empire is just an area that has seen dramatic price reductions.

Anyhow, my point isn't that housing a year ago was affordable or that its particularly affordable at the moment. Rather, that the prices are declining fast and they will return to historic norms that were affordable.

[thomasw98]

Originally Posted by Soccersupporter

I am the perfect example for buying versus renting. We bought a 1200 sq. ft. 2 bedroom 2 bath house in Irvine in 1980 for $128,000. We lived in the house for about 27 years, During that time we completed 2 additions to the house, put 2 children through college, bought 3 cars cash all using the equity in the house. My wife had a home business which allowed us to pay very, very, very, little in income taxes over the 27 years. We sold the house last year 2007 took the money we made, purchased with cash a house in TX much nicer, bigger than the house in Irvine, paid off the bills, and still had $150,000 to invest in additional retirement.

That is why buying versus renting is more advantageous. Now if you add the stability it gave our family while raising our children, well there is no price you can attach to that.

It's a nice story and a happy ending for you (congrats!), but not quite scientific proof. If you or anyone else really want to see the difference between renting versus buying, you have to do a more detailed financial analysis comparing the costs and alternative uses of excess money.

Buying requires a big downpayment, big monthly payments, and annual taxes, but get some tax deductions also.

Renting is fairly straightforward and cheaper on a monthly basis, plus does not require a downpayment...well, just a refundable deposit). The main point is the renters have extra cash in their hands, and we (logically, but maybe too optimistically) should assume that they will invest this cash in the stock market or bonds or whatever.

When you look at the numerical results of these two scenarios, ALL THINGS BEING EQUAL, they should come out equally. OK, that's financial theory. In reality, things are often not equal. For example, real estate prices may skyrocket due to human emotion issues, or drop due to too many people getting loans they should not have gotten, etc. etc.

Anyways, in the end, it should still adjust back to a parity situation, but that may take time. In summary, if you really want to know the difference between the two options, you have to work the numbers in detail. Anecdotes won't do it.

[Humanoid]

Anyhow, here are some listings from redfin (doesn't require log in):

Older 1600 sf home in Irvine for $499:

5 Star Thistle, Irvine, CA 92604 | $499,000 | El Camino Real Real Estate

Smaller one for $450k:

18 Queens Wreath Way, Irvine, CA 92612 | $450,000 | University Park Real Estate

Here are some homes in the $300k range in south orange county:

24054 Calendula, Mission Viejo, CA 92692 | $364,999 | Mission Viejo Central Real Estate
27869 Espinoza, Mission Viejo, CA 92692 | $399,900 | Mission Viejo Central Real Estate

Anyhow, you can easily find a home north of Irvine under $300k and south of Irvine for under $400k. They will be older and on the small side, but this wasn't possible just a year ago. Soon you'll be able to get a home north of Irvine for under $200k and South of Irvine for under $300k.

[EscapeCalifornia]

The two in Mission Viejo are 55+ communities and come with hefty association dues. And I don't call $364-399K "$300k range". They're almost $400k. The second one on your list is attached and the first one is still half a million bucks for a 3 bedroom house. Yeah, all very affordable.

[Humanoid]

The two in Mission Viejo are 55+ communities and come with hefty association dues. And I don't call $364-399K "$300k range". They're almost $400k. The second one on your list is attached and the first one is still half a million bucks for a 3 bedroom house. Yeah, all very affordable.

Dude, I stated "and south of Irvine for under $400k", here are more:

78 Three Vines Ct, Ladera Ranch, CA 92694 | $400,000 | Ladera Ranch Real Estate
23442 El Reposa, Aliso Viejo, CA 92656 | $292,900 | Aliso Viejo Real Estate
27325 Eastridge Dr, Lake Forest, CA 92630 | $399,500 | Lake Forest North Real Estate

first one is still half a million bucks for a 3 bedroom house. Yeah, all very affordable.

Note, I have stated again and again that houses are still not affordable in many areas, but will be in another 1-2 years. But how affordable housing is depends on local incomes, housing in Irvine will be affordable once you can get a basic house for around $300k, right now you can't find much under $450k. But you couldn't come close to finding a "starter home" under $400k in south orange county just last year nor for under $300 in north orange county.

One can clearly find a 1600 sf 30 year old track home for under $600k....pretty much anywhere you look. The fact that ugly track homes in orange county were selling for $600k last year should sound huge alarms off in peoples heads.