For Those Thinking of Leaving, Where are You Looking to Go? (Sacramento: rent, home)

[jwest09]

Originally Posted by Ludachris

Hey Grumbler, what are your thoughts on Boise? I have an uncle living in the Bay Area talking about moving out there. I'm hoping he doesn't since we'd like to move back to CA to be closer to family, them being part of that equation. But he speaks so highly of Boise. Part of it is the old "grass is greener" syndrome, but maybe some of it is not. It seems similar to the Denver area in terms of climate so I couldn't really try to talk him out of it since we can't complain about the weather here (it's going to be 68 degrees here today yet again).

The economy in Boise is not very good for jobs. Better areas are Utah, Wyoming and Oklahoma. These states are doing the best in the west.

[pll]

Originally Posted by Ludachris

Haha - yeah I hear ya. You come to appreciate the idea of consistent (or boring, as some call it) weather when you move to an area where the weather is so inconsistent. I like sunny, dry summers. Rain in the summer sucks in my world - but I'm a car guy, so that's just me.

Growing up in SoCal, weather was never a topic of conversation. Only the relatives from Nebraska were obessed with it. It bored me. Now I understand how it becomes a big deal when you live where there are seasons.

[pll]

Originally Posted by Ludachris

Hey Grumbler, what are your thoughts on Boise? I have an uncle living in the Bay Area talking about moving out there. I'm hoping he doesn't since we'd like to move back to CA to be closer to family, them being part of that equation. But he speaks so highly of Boise. Part of it is the old "grass is greener" syndrome, but maybe some of it is not. It seems similar to the Denver area in terms of climate so I couldn't really try to talk him out of it since we can't complain about the weather here (it's going to be 68 degrees here today yet again).

We left CA for Boise many years ago. It has a lot of good qualities. Not enough big business though. There are only two major employers. So it can be difficult to find employment. Affordible housing, good schools. Stong police presence who keep law and order. The high schools don't have gangs. Very quiet and can be boring at times. People are reserved. It gets very cold in the winters but great if you ski Bogus Basin Ski Resort is 45 minutes away. If you enjoy hunting, camping fishing, rafting, etc. it's a great place. If not it's probably not the place for you.

[sheri257]

Originally Posted by cobmw

You make house price declines sound like a good thing. They are not.

Yeah ... they are. What's the number one complaint about California on this board? Housing prices. What's the number one reason people moved? Housing prices.

The fact that housing is getting more affordable is a good thing. It won't be a good thing for people who paid too much but ... those prices were so insane ... it was not healthy for this state.

[Sassberto]

Originally Posted by sheri257

The fact that housing is getting more affordable is a good thing. It won't be a good thing for people who paid too much but ... those prices were so insane ... it was not a good thing for this state.

It's a good thing for the tiny number of people who are going to move here this year. It's a bad thing for far more people. Think about the sheer number of people who can pay their mortgages but are underwater. They can't remodel, add on, or sell. Add on the foreclosed homes and unmaintained homes which are creating blight in our neighborhoods. The net effect of this is crushing CA's economy. There is nothing to cheer.

[hsw]

For decades, many have known that real estate is ultimately a cyclic Ponzi scheme, largely fueled by expectation that one can flip some used house to a "greater fool" for more than one paid for it

Cars depreciate; houses should logically depreciate as well, down to land value

And, land value is often not a great investment either

Would rent/buy decent new (not used) shelter within one's means in a desirable part of a region w/a powerful economy that generates high-income jobs...but shelter is part of COL, not an investment

Ironically, during both Bubble and post-Bubble, land costs in SiliconValley's most elite suburbs have been consistently cheaper than land costs in the most elite suburbs of Chicago or Dallas or Houston or Detroit

Real estate is a cyclic industry....by '94, prices in NYC and LA (supposedly cool cities w/scarce land in desirable areas) fell ~40% from '89 peak...and only re-gained '89 levels in '00...

Today's economy and credit crisis is much worse than early '90s....if this era's peak was early '07, bottom won't be reached until >'12.....draw own conclusions about extent of depreciation and when bottom will be reached in this cycle

[sheri257]

Originally Posted by Sassberto

It's a good thing for the tiny number of people who are going to move here this year. It's a bad thing for far more people. Think about the sheer number of people who can pay their mortgages but are underwater. They can't remodel, add on, or sell. Add on the foreclosed homes and unmaintained homes which are creating blight in our neighborhoods. The net effect of this is crushing CA's economy. There is nothing to cheer.

It won't be good just for people who move here ... it will also be good for people (like me) who have been waiting to buy.

It is a crushing thing now but ... does anybody really believe that 500K for a simple track home was a good thing? Even by California standards of higher housing prices ... this was completely insane.

It was totally unrealistic and totally unsustainable. Just because people were crazy enough to borrow that much money doesn't mean they should have.

I think the housing crash will ultimately be a great thing for this state ... because housing will be much more affordable.

This had to happen.

[nightbird47]

Originally Posted by sheri257

It won't be good just for people who move here ... it will also be good for people (like me) who have been waiting to buy.

It is a crushing thing now but ... does anybody really believe that 500K for a simple track home was a good thing? Even by California standards of higher housing prices ... this was completely insane.

It was totally unrealistic and totally unsustainable. Just because people were crazy enough to borrow that much money doesn't mean they should have.

I think the housing crash will ultimately be a great thing for this state ... because housing will be much more affordable.

This had to happen.

I left for more than economics but I think the cali price of my little house here would be a couple hundred k there at the peak, at least. No way would it be worth that in any area.

I remember in the 70's when speculation tripled the 'value' of our house three times its old value in a year or so. Its value to us was the same since we lived in it.

My hope is that this crash being so much worse than any in memory and having cost so many so much will teach people that homes are not investments, that they are your shelter and its a survival factor. Don't refinance the paid for house for goodies. Don't go way way over what you can afford because it sounds good on a house worth, realistically, a small portion of the price. The danger is its still crashing the economy and the rest of the bubbles, so things may be very very bad by 2012.

A relative of mine on two salaries from construction and receptionist in a dental office bought a 600k home out in the desert. He's working a couple of days a week, doing the daycare for the kids the rest and they are hanging on with a string. They were advised by everyone NOT to do it. Unless things get better really quick its likely that the string will break.

The other thing I hope people learn it how to be realistic. Tomorrow may bring winning the lottery or triple the pay, but then it may bring less hours or a drop in income or losing a job too. Dream of the best but remember there is an equal chance of the worse. Make sure you have a chance of not losing what you've gained if things go to the negative.

How many of the people out there hanging on, or having lost their homes or near were like my relative, hearing pie in the sky?

[Ludachris]

This mess didn't come about because California was way overpriced. Remember, this whole housing crisis was more a result of bad mortgages and how those mortgages were being packaged, bought and sold on wall street - not overpriced home values in areas like CA. Home values are dropping and the economy is crashing as a byproduct of the mortgage blunder. If it were simply a matter of overinflated prices, ALL homes in Silicon Valley would be affected or would have been affected from the start, and that is not the case. The more desirable areas in CA are still holding their value pretty well considering all that's going on.

The fact that some are celebrating this whole mess still bothers me. But I guess that's just human nature - every man for himself and screw everyone else. My wife and I haven't been wiped out by all this like many have (though we've been struggling), but even though I was a little more prepared than some, I can't sit here and shrug my shoulders when hearing all the horror stories and think that millions deserve it or were stupid for taking the risk. It's a shame that some are shrugging their shoulders saying "I told you so" right now. I have some family and friends that will be taking a massive loss because of all this - some will lose everything. Some aren't even homeowners, they've just lost their jobs as a result of this mess. Not everyone was gambling on making huge profits on the housing market, some were actually being pretty conservative. This crisis isn't discriminating, even those who planned well could be hit hard.

Sure, it would be nice to be able to live anywhere we wanted in California for less money, but not at the expense of the homeowners already there. I'm not going to sit here and hope that millions of people lose big time on their investment simply so we can get a better deal. Anyway, sorry for the rant. I just hate seeing all the cheering and shrugging going on, it just seems extremely inconsiderate. The number of innocent people who will be negatively affected will greatly outnumber those who will benefit. Market corrections happen, what we're seeing now didn't "have to happen" and probably wouldn't have happened on this scale if it were not for corporate greed.

[stellar9]

Come to the Twin Cities! It's not super cheap here, but people are very tolerant and there are large immigrant groups.

We moved to the West Metro area last October 2008 and have endured the coldest winter in almost 20 years (which is the last time I endured a MN winter-I moved to CA in '82). The kids love it and have no desire to move back.