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Unread 03-12-2007, 02:29 PM
 
47 posts, read 131,730 times
Reputation: 24
the odds are very small on that Puente Hills fault.but the odds on the san andreas are very high. more likely than not, in the near short term, in geologic time..

" Scientists monitoring the dangerous web of seismic faults beneath the densely populated San Francisco Bay region now calculate that there is a 70 percent chance that a major earthquake will strike somewhere in the area before 2030. "...
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Unread 03-12-2007, 02:54 PM
 
47 posts, read 131,730 times
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here is a little eyewitness story of a real earthquake. the 1906 quake, just like the one expected to happen again sometime on the san andreas>>

"The shock came, and hurled my bed against an opposite wall. I sprang up, and, holding firmly to the foot-board managed to keep on my feet to the door. The shock was constantly growing heavier; rumbles, crackling noises, and falling objects already commenced the din.

The door refused to open. The earthquake had wedged it in the door-frame. My husband was pushing on the opposite side and I pulled with all my strength, when a twist of the building released it, and the door sprang open.

We braced ourselves in the doorway, clinging to the casing, Our son appeared across the reception room, and my husband motioned to him to stand in his door also, for fear of the chimney.

It grew constantly worse, the noise deafening; the crash of dishes, falling pictures, the rattle of the flat tin roof, bookcases being overturned, the piano hurled across the parlor, the groaning and straining of the building itself, broken glass and falling plaster, made such a roar that no one noise could be distinguished.

We never knew when the chimney came tearing through; we never knew when a great marine picture weighing one hundred and twenty-five pounds crashed down, not eight feet away from us; we were frequently shaken loose from our hold on the door, and only kept our feet by mutual help and our utmost efforts, the floor moved like short, choppy waves of the sea, crisscrossed by a tide as mighty as themselves. The ceiling responded to all the angles of the floor. I never expected to come out alive. I looked across the reception-room at the white face of our son, and thought to see the floors give way with him momentarily. How a building could stand such motion and keep its frame intact is still a mystery to me.

Stand in front of your clock and count off forty-eight seconds, and imagine this scene to have continued for that length of time, and you can get some idea of what one could suffer during that period. ...

Frequent "tremblers" sent us scurrying to the road, and as night came on, we gathered some bedding together and went into the Park, the Mecca of all the city, All day I had been feeding homeless ones who had drifted out from the Mission district, where great clouds of angry smoke were rising and large areas had already been devastated.

As I took my load to go, I saw a mother and daughter sitting in the next alcove, into which four doors from flats opened. They were weary, and the girl almost fainting. Everything they had was burned, and they had had nothing to eat all day, I told them they could go up in our flat and sleep, if they. wished. They were afraid; so was I. Then I gathered all the door-mats in the alcoves about, went upstairs and found two old comforters, and made them a bed.

I gave them food, and hastened to the Park through the gathering twilight, My husband and son had spread a mattress under the protecting branches of some bushes, with a great eucalyptus-tree towering over us. We crawled in, sleeping crosswise of the mattress, and my long coat kept me snug and warm.

The immense fires started by the earthquake now made such a ruddy glow that it was easy to see everything, although the flames were two miles away. No lights were allowed in the Park, and all was soon quiet except the wail of a baby, the clang of an ambulance, and the incessant roll of wheels and tramp of feet, as the people constantly sought the refuge of People were all about us in huddled groups, sleeping the sleep of exhaustion on the lawns and under the shrubbery....

http://www.sfmuseum.net/1906/ew13.html

from one of many eyewitness accounts
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Unread 03-12-2007, 02:59 PM
 
Location: OZ!
17,097 posts, read 10,733,102 times
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We have earthquakes here in CA daily. We just don't feel most of them. But the ground is shaking. It's not a matter of "IF" we have a big one it's when we have the big one.
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Unread 03-12-2007, 03:05 PM
 
Location: OZ!
17,097 posts, read 10,733,102 times
Reputation: 12701
My family slept in our car in the middle of our yard and rode out the many aftershocks that kept coming after the Northridge quake. We could see/hear explosions all over the valley. People were sleeping out in their yards and in the nearby parks. No one wanted to venture into their once secure homes.
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Unread 03-12-2007, 03:10 PM
 
47 posts, read 131,730 times
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yes. lots of people went outside at 4:30 am. we could hear everyone on the streets. there was broken glass on our floors. we had to leave carefully.

while I was reading a few eyewitness accounts of the 1906 quake, I saw one where people mentioned were hurled in their beds like we were.
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Unread 03-12-2007, 03:10 PM
 
Location: South Bay
208 posts, read 599,452 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sedonaaz View Post
yes I would agree with you. if it were true.
here is a little recent info for you

"A new estimate of the effect of an earthquake along the Puente Hills fault shows that damage could occur on an unprecedented scale.
An earthquake of magnitude 7.2 to 7.5 would result in 3,000 to 18,000 deaths, 142,000 to 735,000 displaced households, and up to $250 billion in property damage, according to research by the U.S. Geological Survey and the Southern California Earthquake Center at the University of Southern California. The disaster would be the costliest in U.S. history.

The damage would be especially severe due to the fault's location under Los Angeles County and adjacent to Riverside and San Bernardino counties. In addition the fault runs under older, more vulnerable commercial and industrial structures.

By contrast, the most heavily shaken areas in the 1994 Northridge earthquake consisted mainly of wood-frame residential structures.

Estimated damages would also be greater than for a repeat of the historic 1857 San Andreas Fault earthquake"

http://www.physorg.com/news4263.html
so you are scared because some scientists are telling you how much the damage could be? the big quake back in in '89 caused about 60 deaths

http://www.cdc.gov/MMWR/preview/mmwrhtml/00001498.htm

why don't you research how many people have actually died in earthquake related deaths in california in the last several decades...then compare that to hurricanes, tornadoes, etc...
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Unread 03-12-2007, 03:23 PM
 
Location: OZ!
17,097 posts, read 10,733,102 times
Reputation: 12701
I think all natural disasters are bad...no one can compare them. Even if you've been through them all which is highly unlikely. If you are not frightened by earthquakes that's okay. They do frighten me. And for people who are considering moving their families here I think they should be made aware of the good and the bad. Yes, we have the good weather, probably the least amount of insects, great variety of things to do. It is a beautiful yet expensive place to live. But we do have earthquakes..and that should also be a consideration. And no, not everyone will get hurt or killed in an earthquake or any other disaster. But there is still that chance. If it's your time to go it probably wouldn't matter where you live!!
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Unread 03-12-2007, 07:08 PM
 
Location: Sherman Oaks, CA
4,748 posts, read 7,860,593 times
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After the '94 Northridge quake, I had a temp job that entailed typing up earthquake inspection reports. What struck me in all of these reports is this:

Housing that rests on a "soft first story" (a parking garage, commercial space, or "tuck under" parking, for example), is much less safe and stable. Many of the multi-dwelling structures that failed did so for this very reason. In fact, two thirds of the 46,000 uninhabitable housing units after the Northridge quake were due to this factor. This became very important to me when I was searching for an apartment later that year, of course. While my building does have tuck under parking, my apartment is on the other side - and we're on the top (second) floor. My car may get squished, but my family and I should be fine!

For more info, please see this site: http://quake.abag.ca.gov/mitigation/PR-Soft-Story.pdf (broken link)
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Unread 03-12-2007, 08:08 PM
 
47 posts, read 131,730 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SouthBayTodd View Post
so you are scared because some scientists are telling you how much the damage could be? the big quake back in in '89 caused about 60 deaths

http://www.cdc.gov/MMWR/preview/mmwrhtml/00001498.htm

why don't you research how many people have actually died in earthquake related deaths in california in the last several decades...then compare that to hurricanes, tornadoes, etc...
no I'm not scared. I was never afraid of earthquakes, until I was in a big one.
I have nothing to fear. I don't live there. I just know most people who live there don't acknowledge there is any risk.

maybe we should compare how many people died in hurricanes in new orleans before katrina hit? that's about as valid a statistic I think. one thing people fail to recognize, is that historical statistics of infrequent events like earthquakes or major hurricanes always compare to a time when populations were much less dense. comparing to 1906 would not be terribly valid.

3400 deaths, 15,000 injuries out of a total population of 400,000 in the 1906 quake. the population now for the metro area is close to 2 million. So 5 times the population. Of course better building codes now, but infinitely more glass and concrete and population density.

You might be interested to know the biggest earthquake in the US was not in CA. It was a 9.0 in Oregon in 1700. Of course the US wasn't the US yet.

>>>Largest Earthquakes in the United States. USGS Earthquake Hazards Program. <http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/eqlists/10maps_usa.html>. 20 November 2005.

>>In 1906, this earthquake rated the seventh largest in the United States (excluding Alaska and Hawaii). New Madrid, Missouri, had three earthquakes in 1811-1812 of magnitude 7.8 and two at 8.1. Fort Tejon, California had a magnitude 7.9 in 1857. Imperial Valley, California had a 7.8 quake in 1892. The largest earthquake had occurred in Oregon in 1700, with a magnitude of approximately 9.0.
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Unread 03-12-2007, 08:27 PM
 
Location: North County- San Diego
107 posts, read 640,947 times
Reputation: 45
There would have been many more deaths in the Northridge quake had it not happened at 4:30 am. The reason so many were spared was because of the timing....had it happened a few hours later.......
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