Do You Think Gavin Newsom Will Be the Next Governor? (Fresno: 2010, college)

[clongirl]

I'm a liberal originally from the City and would definitely not vote for him (despite even his gorgeous looks). I haven't been impressed on what he's done (or not done) for San Francisco. Crime seems way out of control now in SF, the homeless problem has become rampant and seems to be encouraged and even though I'm strongly against prop 8, I don't think he should have championed this cause as his foremost priority (at least this is how I see it). I just haven't seen many positives come out his administration. I also think that he'd be far too divisive for the state overall.

[majoun]

Originally Posted by clongirl

I'm a liberal originally from the City and would definitely not vote for him (despite even his gorgeous looks). I haven't been impressed on what he's done (or not done) for San Francisco. Crime seems way out of control now in SF, the homeless problem has become rampant and seems to be encouraged and even though I'm strongly against prop 8, I don't think he should have championed this cause as his foremost priority (at least this is how I see it). I just haven't seen many positives come out his administration. I also think that he'd be far too divisive for the state overall.

Those are my sentiments exactly having to live under his administration. Crime's gotten worse than L.A. and homelessness is almost as bad as L.A. His fellow "would be celebrity mayor" 500 miles to the south at least has accomplished SOMETHING - Gavin's been asleep at the wheel, not to mention his pathetic "rehab" experience is a strike against him.

[NewToCA]

I don't think he gets the Democratic nomination.

[skywalker400]

Besides gay marriage, I'm not sure he's that far left wacky liberal as all of you believe. Part of it is guilt by association, being the Mayor of San Francisco with its "progressive" board of supervisors and district attorney. I seriously doubt any Bay Area official has a chance a national office, just due to being associated with the region.
I get the feeling that Antonio Villaraigosa isn't quite the superstar mayor many had hoped, maybe LA people can chime in? I hear mixed stuff about Loretta Sanchez as well, and I'm not sure if Diane Feinstein has in her.

[buckeyenative01]

I don't think Villaraigosa would win, either. From what I remember in the 2005 mayoral election, he came in promoting himself as an agent of change (kinda like Barack Obama three years later) but has yet to deliver on almost everything he said he wanted to accomplish.

Granted the LA City Council's done a lot to hinder him, and the state's Republicans would go apesh*t over his affair a few years back if he decides to run.

[majoun]

Originally Posted by skywalker400

Besides gay marriage, I'm not sure he's that far left wacky liberal as all of you believe. Part of it is guilt by association, being the Mayor of San Francisco with its "progressive" board of supervisors and district attorney.

Kamala's talking about running for AG. She'll get hammered in the primary unless she faces only token opposition, in which case the GOP will have a field day with her. She's the worst DA in the state, and epitomizes everything bad about SF politics. (I really liked her predecessor, Terry Hallinan, but SF voters seemed to want to elect a minority woman over a white guy just to seem "progressive")

I seriously doubt any Bay Area official has a chance a national office, just due to being associated with the region.

We're talking about statewide office, which Bay Area officials have done very well in attaining throughout California's history. L.A. seems to carry more negative baggage within the state. As said before, Jerry Brown imo has a lock on the nomination for many reasons. But, if he backs out at the last minute, or if Feinstein's talk of leaving the Senate to run for governor amount to nothing as they have in the past, then the others might have a chance.

We're not talking about a presidential race. There's not going to be a second Bay Area US president any time soon (Herbert Hoover was the only Northern Californian president). IMO, there won't be a third Californian president any time soon regardless of where they're from, but that's another topic.

I get the feeling that Antonio Villaraigosa isn't quite the superstar mayor many had hoped, maybe LA people can chime in? I hear mixed stuff about Loretta Sanchez as well, and I'm not sure if Diane Feinstein has in her.

Tony shares Gavin's weakness of being a wanna-be celebrity who would have been better off going into acting. He did manage to avoid a run off but considering that the candidates he was running against were little known and eccentric (to put it nicely), his odds of being governor seem to be even lower than prior to the mayoral election. Never mind CA's historical resistance to electing LA mayors as governor. He shares many of Gavin's weaknesses but isn't quite as bad in said weaknesses. At least he can take credit for an overall drop in crime.

Feinstein could certainly win an election easily - but given her past track record she'll probably stay in the Senate and become the female Robert Byrd.
(She is not only older than Brown, but older than John McCain). Loretta Sanchez has some positives in winning a statewide election: a moderate Latina from an urban area who gets GOP support. She's also reasonably good looking, which is a plus. More conservative than I'd like (of course, she is from OC), much like DiFi, but IMO she's more likely to be the first governor of Mexican descent that California's had since the 1870s than Tony.

I voted for Westly in the 2006 Dem primary, and I voted for Garamendi in the 1994 Dem primary for governor as well as for Insurance Commissioner and Lieutenant Governor, and both are good, very highly qualified men who've been around CA Dem politics a long time. Garamendi's problem is that he's from rural California, and is more of a Bill Richardson/Brian Schweitzer type of Western Dem. While I could live with that easily, I don't know how much appeal it would have in the coastal parts of the state. Candidates from outside major media markets have a disadvantage. As for Westly, he'd get overshadowed by the "once and future governor Brown" and by the two glamour-boy mayors.

[buckeyenative01]

So if what I'm hearing is correct, the Democratic gubernatorial primary in California will essentially be a race between Newsom, Brown and maybe Villaraigosa?

[FresnoFacts]

I'm not sure if Brown should be considered a lock either, he also has things to overcome. His campaign will have to deal with his previous governor years (less is more, celebrity dating, and the Gov Moonbeam label), what people statewide feel he accomplished in Oakland, and more.

The problem for either party is too often they force voters into the "who do I dislike least" mode, not "who do I like best".

Personally I think the November Gubernatorial winner will be the Dem or Rep who is perceived closest to moderate status.

But unfortunately both parties typically nominate the candidate that appeals to the most vocal wings during the primary. And that usually means further to the left OR right than most Californians want to elect leader of the state.

[buckeyenative01]

Originally Posted by FresnoFacts

I'm not sure if Brown should be considered a lock either, he also has things to overcome. His campaign will have to deal with his previous governor years (less is more, celebrity dating, and the Gov Moonbeam label), what people statewide feel he accomplished in Oakland, and more.

The problem for either party is too often they force voters into the "who do I dislike least" mode, not "who do I like best".

Personally I think the November Gubernatorial winner will be the Dem or Rep who is perceived closest to moderate status.

But unfortunately both parties typically nominate the candidate that appeals to the most vocal wings during the primary. And that usually means further to the left OR right than most Californians want to elect leader of the state.

So essentially, we're seeing a repeat of the 2006 election?

Sometimes I wonder if California would be better off splitting into two halves...

[jdavid93225]

Originally Posted by bayarea-girl

Does the guy have a shot? What do you think CA?

I certainly hope not!