Time Magazine thought California was done in the 70s & again in the 90s (Long Beach: middle-class, fit in)

[majoun]

Originally Posted by EscapeCalifornia

Then who picks the people who get to write it?

I presume a non-partisan panel, with opportunities for participation from all sectors of Californian society, although lawyers, judges, and law professors would play the biggest role.

Since it's been so long since California last got a constitution, I can't think of a California-specific precedent, but that's how it has worked in other states. IIRC in Montana when they drew up a new constitution in the '70s their bar association and groups of law professors and judges as well as business groups were the main participants in drawing up a new constitution.

This is really a topic that deserves more research.

[user_id]

Originally Posted by majoun

In this case, a constitutional convention would remedy matters - presumably it would reorient the fiscal structure of CA to eliminate the state's dependence on high fees, high fines, and high sales tax, and would make CA a much friendlier place for small business.

Perhaps, but I don't think it is likely to occur. California is not doomed, it could recover. But, I think the probability is fairly low and as a result I'm not interested in investing in the state.

[user_id]

Originally Posted by MtnSurfer

The majority of Californians are 'not' wealthy but have jobs and 'can' support themselves.

Actually, 11.5% of Californians don't even have jobs.

Originally Posted by MtnSurfer

But if that was 'all' that mattered to business owners then they would have packed up and moved to the MidWest a long time ago where land is pennies on the dollar and labor is dirt cheap. Don't you think business owners care about lifestyle as well as their employees?

Employers really don't care about whether their employees can go to the beach or not. Its ironic you even mention lifestyle, as the high cost of living in California prevents even middle-income folks from doing things people in enjoy rather easily (e.g., buying a home).

Taxes and property costs are not the only thing that matter to businesses, that is why I mentioned a number of other things in my of my previous posts. California has a lot of talent, but other areas have grown a lot the last 20 years and also offer a good pool of talent. The high cost of living has actually pushed out talent from the state and also made it difficult for California businesses to get people to relocate here.

Originally Posted by MtnSurfer

It is not rocket science and not very diverse.

Except when its actually rocket science..... Your comments are extremely short sighted. You realize that manufacturing includes some rather sophisticated products right? Planes, rockets, semiconductors, weapons, farming equipment, etc etc. Low-skill manufacturing largely left the US decades ago...

Originally Posted by MtnSurfer

No, not really I mean it is simple economics and natural cycles which occur.

California's unemployment rate is one of the worst in the nation. You don't get that when you have a truly diverse economy, you get that when you're economy is overly focused. The growth in California's economy over the last decade has been almost all related to real estate. The other industries have started to leave the state.

Originally Posted by MtnSurfer

I don't see CA like this with any single large industry.

California is a large state, as a result its better to think of it has separate regions. Each region relies heavily on a single industry, to the point where if it left the region would decline just as a rust belt state did after the 1940's.

[majoun]

Originally Posted by user_id

Perhaps, but I don't think it is likely to occur.

Extreme times call for extreme measures.

Under normal circumstances, a constitutional convention would be extremely unlikely to occur - however, these are not normal circumstances we live in. There is a sense of disgust and a sense of a failed political system. The movement for a constitutional convention is growing all the time. Why do you think that it is unlikely to occur now, when the state's problems have become unmanageable, a "quick fix" isn't going to happen, and there is a widespread consensus of rage against the status quo and a need for deep, deep change?

If things are going well, there's no demand for a major overhaul of the system. That's how CA managed to get by for so many years. However, that's not the case anymore. Ever heard the saying, "out of chaos, reason ; out of reason, science"? We have chaos right now, and the chaos demands a solution. Our state still has a great deal of bright people, they just aren't in the State Legislature.

There is even a possibility that fear of a new Constitutional Convention may cause the Legislature to clean up its act in order to prevent the legislators from joining the millions of unemployed Californians....

California needs a state constitutional convention - Los Angeles Times

[RobE]

Apocalypse sells. Look at the recent week the History Channel had on the subject, for example. It was enough to make you want to reach for the Prozac.

What is ironic is that magazines like Time are perfectly fine with the various ills and peculiarities of NYC (America's Calcutta) while they have always viewed what goes on in California as somehow abnormal. That movie wasn't called "Fort Apache Inglewood," after all and it was a running joke more than anything else.

As for California, it is true L.A.'s inner city still have not socially and economically recovered from the 1965 Watts riot (I am old enough to remember when the area around Exposition Park was actually beautiful) and its sequels, the state's tax code is insane and resulted in frequent budget deficits, it is almost impossible now to get a family wage job without a college education (illegal immigration has turned construction work, for example, from a family wage employer into burger flipping money) during a time when tuition is skyrocketing due to those deficits, we are beyond the saturation point with illegal immigration, gangs are all over the place and destroying what were once nice working class communities, and one of the state's chief industries, development, is now at a standstill after the overheated building boom and real estate speculation and won't recover for several years.

The freeways are just insanely jammed now (even back in the 1970's, when that was a running joke, it was nothing) and a car based culture is burdened by high gas prices and insurance rates.

As someone who was born and raised in California, the state is at a historical nadir. Yeah, smog used to be so bad that your eyes would tear and the aerospace industry went through frequent boom and bust cycles (my father was a machinist, so I know this well. He decided to get off that train, get back in school and eventually got his master's). By the same token, though, during the 1970's, California had half the folks it does now and the state's infrastructure is creeking under the load. And more and more university graduates are exiting the state because it is just too expensive to live decently on a starter salary. California loses hundreds, if not thousands, of teachers every year as part of this, too.

People also used to come to California to remake themselves. That is no longer viable because they can't afford to even rent an apartment in an area that isn't a war zone.

On the other hand, there is always opportunity because California is where the people are, just like NYC. The average Chinese is poor as hell, but U.S. firms are tripping over themselves to go after that market. It's climate and live and let live mentality also encourages a lot of folks to stick it out because having new weird ideas isn't the social minus it is in other more conformist states.

Nonetheless, California is just worn out and the lifestyle has been degraded. The state constitution is like a gumbo cooked up by Satan. There are too many people using the state and the gap between rich and poor is much more extreme than it has been at any point in my lifetime. And the tragedy is that nobody has the stones to do what needs to be done to fix all this stuff because of a combination of political correctness, corruption, institutional inertia and ideological rigidity.

California isn't finished. It will carry on. Just not with its past luster and as a special place in the world. And that makes me sad.

[Curmudgeon]

Originally Posted by RobE

California isn't finished. It will carry on. Just not with its past luster and as a special place in the world. And that makes me sad.

It is sad. I still wax nostalgic periodically and recall the magical childhood I had off and on (military family) in this state beginning in the 40s and 50s and extending through the 60s. Even the early 70s were good but by the time I returned from my last duty station (also military) in the late 70s, things were showing disturbing signs of change.

I would never write off California if only, for no other reason, because of its size. And try as we might we've yet to be able to completely destroy the terrain. It will continue to be a draw, as will the weather. It's the strict partisanship mixed with political correctness and the ever present "do your own thing" mentality that I believe will continue to make the state sink lower. Despite all the recent rhetoric there seems to be no true sense of urgency to apply real solutions to the current and long-lasting troubles.

[user_id]

Originally Posted by majoun

Extreme times call for extreme measures....

I see no big push for change by the people or those in the government.

[MtnSurfer]

Originally Posted by user_id

Except when its actually rocket science..... Your comments are extremely short sighted. You realize that manufacturing includes some rather sophisticated products right? Planes, rockets, semiconductors, weapons, farming equipment, etc etc. Low-skill manufacturing largely left the US decades ago...

No, no, no. Research and Development, 'Rocket Science' or anything else where US national security or secrets are involved have not and will never be exported like the autos of the rust bowl. These are two entirely different things.

Last time I checked CalTech, Stanford, UCLA and UCSD along with other think tanks such JPL who conduct research with them weren't going anywhere. Unless of course your chicken little scenarios include the collapse of these institutions as well.

How about the largest employers of research, development and high tech work for the Gov't? Are they planning on pulling up their tent stakes and leaving anytime in the near future? Again a resounding No! Unless of course you have some inside info from the CEOs of these firms and know about something special that no one else does. I don't think so.

And is the SF Bay or Port of LA going to suddenly stop doing international trade simply becuase of some ppl deciding to move out state? Maybe in your mind, but again no. How about the largest argricultural belt of the nation. Did you hear it was moving?

Then there are the countless other large, medium and small companies that have and will continue to do business in CA. Why you ask? The better question is why wouldn't they? With 1 in 8 Americans living here it would be foolish to stop servicing them.

And oh yeah that little tourist trade thing, I guess Big Sur and Yosemite are falling into the ocean.

A more 'realistic' scenario might be some companies leave or at least do more work in other states. And then RE prices drop significantly more becuase more ppl like you and others continue to leave. I mean isn't that your whole point really? You can't see 'investing' in CA. If you and more ppl like you in fact have the money to invest in CA RE but are now taking your money to the South or MidWest instead that would effect supply and demand. So the foreclosures would continue and the demand declines more.

Oh but wait, what about the hundreds and thousands of other ppl who still plan to move to CA in spite of the chicken little forecasts such as these? Could the ppl leaving even equate to more than a drop in the bucket compared with the rest of the state's population? Maybe a drop or two, but I actually wish more. Then RE prices may finally drop significantly and present greater opportunities for those who are waiting to get in at the right time.

So no I still don't think chicken little is on to anything big or new here. Rather these are just simple economic cycles which have come before and will continue to occur long past anyone's lifetime here. CA has seen many recessions and booms in the past, both of which will continue.

Derek

[majoun]

Originally Posted by user_id

I see no big push for change by the people or those in the government.

Did you even read the link I posted?

Gavin Newsom having gotten aboard the constitutional convention bandwagon means there's obviously a popular sentiment for change. (Fortunately, Gavin's too inept to have much of an actual role in shaping a new Constitution.) A demagoguic politician like Newsom is not going to latch onto a cause unless there is a powerful movement pushing for that cause.

The Bay Area Council, a long established and influential business organization representing all nine Bay Area counties and composed of the 275 largest employers in the region, have been very active in pushing for a constitutional convention, and have noticed an upsurge of public support.

Bay Area Council - California Constitutional Convention
Repair California - California's for a Constitutional Convention

[majoun]

Originally Posted by Curmudgeon

I would never write off California if only, for no other reason, because of its size. And try as we might we've yet to be able to completely destroy the terrain. It will continue to be a draw, as will the weather. It's the strict partisanship mixed with political correctness and the ever present "do your own thing" mentality that I believe will continue to make the state sink lower. Despite all the recent rhetoric there seems to be no true sense of urgency to apply real solutions to the current and long-lasting troubles.

The public might not be out in the streets - but I would hardly refer to the Bay Area Council as being an insignificant group nor would I refer to their proposals as lacking a sense of urgency. They DO have significant influence in the corridors of power, and represent major business interests in the state.