1.5 million homes in foreclosure in '09 (Sacramento, Chico: short sale, mortgage, lenders)

[jaynetarzana]

That is what our (very honest) real estate agent told us. He and his wife are renting now and won't buy until the market bottoms out for real. I told him that I will buy when he buys.

[Charles]

Originally Posted by jaynetarzana

That is what our (very honest) real estate agent told us. He and his wife are renting now and won't buy until the market bottoms out for real. I told him that I will buy when he buys.

Does he pay attention to City Data forum? If not, then he should buy when you buy, because you probably know more than he does.

[jaynetarzana]

He reads everything. The guy subscribes to more real estate blogs and news sites than I can shake a stick at. I've never met anyone with better knowledge of the market. He can back up everything he says with actual data. He spends the better part of each morning just reading and taking it all in.

[treedonkey]

Originally Posted by jaynetarzana

He reads everything. The guy subscribes to more real estate blogs and news sites than I can shake a stick at. I've never met anyone with better knowledge of the market. He can back up everything he says with actual data. He spends the better part of each morning just reading and taking it all in.

Sounds like he's well read, but has he mentioned that he, like everyone else, has NO WAY OF KNOWING what the market will do.

[jaynetarzana]

He certainly has mentioned that although there are some pretty clear indications which direction the market is going tobe heading in for quite some time. Besides, even when the recovery does begin, it will be slow so even if you wait until the bottom is declared to buy, you aren't going to risk much. It isn't as though prices are going to skyrocket. They will most likely be pretty flat for awhile.

[treedonkey]

Originally Posted by jaynetarzana

there are some pretty clear indications which direction the market is going to be heading in for quite some time

That's completely false. Your guess is as good as mine. If he's not telling you that than he thinks too much of himself and is really NOT being honest at all.

[bayarea-girl]

Treedonkey, ok to be fair like 90% of people are employed nationally. I understand this. In some parts of CA and other places the unemployment rate is more than 20% and increasing. Let's not forget the people that unemployment is not capturing, the numbers would be pretty scary if we knew that real number. Our government and the media tells us everything LATE and after the fact.

All I know is what I see, most of my friends that had high paying jobs have lost them or at least one person from a dual income family have lost their jobs. My company and my husband's company which seemed to be very stable companies have gone threw 2 layoffs already and will continue layoffs for the rest of the year and I hear what is happening from coast to coast.

Now, where I live in Walnut Creek there are so many stores and restaurants that have closed. Hardly anyone is eating out. It is still busy on the weekends but not like before. I've got to travel a bit for my job so I've seen hardly any travelors at the airport. If you were in the airport like I was this past Christmas then you really know what I am talking about. NO TRAVELORS.

The US is in debt and is not making anything new and we are still at war. More businesses (and we are talking long time companies) are closing and banks are not lending. People's retirement plans are GONE. The Global economy is hurting. These combined things will have a greater affect than people holding onto their money and feeling more comfortable to spend.

Also, do I know people who have lost their homes yes! Too many, and these are people that put money down. And, I know more people who's homes are either worth half than when they bought it or are worthless. The homes the banks have and are selling for so cheap is because they can get cash for it and don't have to rely on other banks and investors to finance/back these debts. These people need as much money as they can get too. So do I think home prices will go down, YEAP without a doubt at some point it will go back up but not any time soon.

[drshang]

Originally Posted by treedonkey

Sounds like he's well read, but has he mentioned that he, like everyone else, has NO WAY OF KNOWING what the market will do.

In terms of investment analysis, the probability that the real estate market in California will continue declining for months and years to come is pretty much about as slam dunk and obvious of a prediction as you can possibly make in the investing world. I think there was one report that came out that it was a 99% chance of it continuing to decline. How fast it drops and how long it takes to recover are certainly unknown because government intervention can impact things very fast (not to mention normal market ebbs and flows).

[timelesschild]

Foreclosures continue to mount - Pasadena Star-News

This was in the news today or yesterday; when the next wave of resets and foreclosures hit, it will be quite a sight.

[jaynetarzana]

And it sounds like southern California is going to bear the brunt of it in this state. I think with news like this, current home sales are going to come to a screeching halt. The houses that will sell are going to be foreclosures, REO and short sales.