1.5 million homes in foreclosure in '09

[Bideshi]

Even when the market "bottoms" in probably two more years or so, it won't start back up again for a long time. There is plenty of time to buy. Buy only for a place to live. It will not be a good investment.

[DMenscha]

Originally Posted by bayarea-girl

Treedonkey, ok to be fair like 90% of people are employed nationally. I understand this. In some parts of CA and other places the unemployment rate is more than 20% and increasing.

Oh please, do tells us where the unemployment rate is more than 15% let alone 20%. You can rant and rave all you want until you believe the stuff you post, but the facts are quite different. Our poor little county is almost always at the top of the unemployment numbers, and we're at 12.5 or something.

Believe me, I'm no apologist for the real estate industry, but in my little neck of the woods, I've been busier than I have been in the past two years. It's a small market, and not like any other place in CA, but it's showing signs of a floor.

You should wear a hard hat so when the sky falls you won't get hurt.

[MotleyCrew]

Originally Posted by DMenscha

Oh please, do tells us where the unemployment rate is more than 15% let alone 20%. You can rant and rave all you want until you believe the stuff you post, but the facts are quite different. Our poor little county is almost always at the top of the unemployment numbers, and we're at 12.5 or something.

Believe me, I'm no apologist for the real estate industry, but in my little neck of the woods, I've been busier than I have been in the past two years. It's a small market, and not like any other place in CA, but it's showing signs of a floor.

You should wear a hard hat so when the sky falls you won't get hurt.

Butte County sits as over 13% right now and Glen County is even higher, Colusa county is around the 15% mark and it looks like the trend will continue to tick up according to the POTUS. Chico Enterprise Record.

[bayarea-girl]

DMenscha, if you interpret what I and others say about the economy to be rants well I'd say the reality has yet to hit home with you. But I don't make the facts up: The recession has claimed a net total of 4.4 million jobs since December 2007. It's left 12.5 million people seeking work — more than the population of Pennsylvania. The number I believe is higher if you count people who can no longer count on unemployment benefits.

CNN Political Ticker: All politics, all the time Blog Archive - Obama: unemployment will likely hit double digits « - Blogs from CNN.com

Unemployment Rates, by Metro Area - Real Time Economics - WSJ
Four U.S. Cities with the Highest Unemployment Rate

The unemployment rate around January and February were the worst in some cities/counties in CA. But many places are above 15% and reaching if not reach 20%. El Centro, CA has 26.8% unemployment.

Six California cities have unemployment above 15% - Sacramento Business Journal:

[jaynetarzana]

Originally Posted by DMenscha

Believe me, I'm no apologist for the real estate industry, but in my little neck of the woods, I've been busier than I have been in the past two years. It's a small market, and not like any other place in CA, but it's showing signs of a floor.

Says the real estate broker with everything to gain from people believing that the market won't continue to drop.

[Charles]

For fun yesterday we used redfin to search for five BR SFR homes, 1995 or later in south OC. Something like six of the first eight or eight of the first 12 or something like that (I forget) were short sales.

While the process of purchasing a "short sale" itself is really complicated (so far, at least to me), and redfin posts some sort of disclaimer something like "This home is flagged as a short sale. We're sorry, we don't tour or write offers on short sales because of the slim chance that you'll get the home", what does it mean when a high percentage of a sample size is short sales? Would this mean that the prices have further to go and since there is no movement (low number of recent sales) and lots of short sales, the price equilibrium hasn't caught up yet? Once the rate of sales picks up the market prices will have to fall? I guess I just don't really understand in simple terms what a short sale is and what its effects on a regional real estate market are. Anyone have any experience purchasing a short sale? Was it worth it?

"What is a Short Sale?

A short sale listing is one in which the seller still owns the property, but owes more money on his mortgage than he will get from selling the property. Most often, more than one bank holds a mortgage on the property and each bank has to approve the sale. These banks and lenders will be evaluating multiple offers at once, many coming from wealthy investors with all cash offers and the patience to wait it out.


How are Short Sales Different Than Foreclosures?

Short sale homes are still owned by the home-owner, while foreclosures are owned by banks. If the home-owner cannot sell the home through a short sale, the bank initiates foreclosure to try to sell the home directly, often in an auction. If the auction fails to turn up a buyer willing to pay at least what the bank was owed on the home, the home becomes Real Estate Owned (REO), where the owner is the bank. The bank then typically sells the property through a real estate agent. "

from

http://www.redfin.com/buy-a-home/short-sales

[mysticaltyger]

Originally Posted by jaynetarzana

This does not look like positive news for those who keep saying that the housing recovery is around the corner.

First half foreclosures break records - Jul. 16, 2009

I know it's difficult. But ultimately, it is positive news. People were buying houses they couldn't afford. Lending practices have been way too loose for many years now. It will take time for things to correct. There is no way to avoid the pain. It's just a question of getting it over with relatively quickly, or having the government intervene (even more than it has) and stretching out the pain over a longer period of time.

[jaynetarzana]

I completely agree.