California Unemployment Increased to 12.2% in August (includes look at 20 largest cities) (Westminster: foreclosures, mortgage)

[AliveandWell]

Originally Posted by BayAreaHillbilly

Detroit is over 25% and MI overall is gunning for 16%. I can understand why they came to IN. It's all relative.

Well, LA is not much better now. And let's not forget that the numbers they put out for unemployment for each city are not the real numbers. I'm willing to guess the real statistics are double what is written.

[jc76]

Bayarea-girl, I'm with ya for the most part. I have been laid off for 11 months now. I have submitted over 120 applications/resume in that time. I have not got one call, not one call. I have a strong work history and a professional approach, and the Indiana Workone Federal Program on my side, still nothing. Not Taco Bell, not 7-11, not even bagging at the grocery store...when I say nothing I mean nothing. No jobs. Period. So I have to agree with you that there is no way in hell the economy is getting any better, if it is getting better it really won't matter to me unless I get a job.
My town bounces around from the 16% to 20% area. Goodwill, eBay and my smarts for buying and reselling have been my only lifeline in all of this.

[user_id]

Originally Posted by AliveandWell

Well, LA is not much better now. And let's not forget that the numbers they put out for unemployment for each city are not the real numbers. I'm willing to guess the real statistics are double what is written.

LA and Detroit are worlds apart, the economic situation in the two cities is not even comparable. I grew up (and currently live) in Los Angeles, but I've also lived in Rust Belt cities. Worlds apart.

What are the "real numbers" are they hidden under some rock?

[bayarea-girl]

user_id, do you work in the media or for the government? Or do you believe what the media is saying and don't think things are bad because you have a job?

Never sad that I don't understand that jobs lag recovery, meaning that unemployment should stabilize and new jobs are created unlike what is happening now. Unemployment is still climbing not declining. So this so called recovery is not really happening. Please re-read what I wrote. Jobs and housing go hand in hand and are a true reflection with how our economy is really doing. In a healthy economy banks lend to businesses, businesses hire people, people buy houses, etc. The economy right now is not stable, even our President and other economist have admitted this. They are fearful that as our economy is recovering we have the potential of the economy going towards a depression.

Never interpreted the end of the recession as everything is good now. Nope not at all. I think that is something you are creating. The end of the recession to me means again that jobs aren't being lost at such a high rate month after month. That people are able to get loans to buy homes. Credit card companies aren't closing and that regular banks aren't in trouble. Do you know how many banks close monthly? It is a ridiculous number.

SFgate.com has been following the fact that there has been less traffic in the bay area as a result in unemployment/the recession. I don't know where you live but I've been mentioning this for months now. The other day it was truly obvious how sad things have become. Restaurants are closing and you see less people in the city. SFgate.com has also been following parking lots in the city as an indicator of how many people are frequenting the city and if they are shopping. There was another thread about this and I posted the articles I'll try to find them for you.


In San Francisco, the are a I was referring to when going over the commercial property vacancies I strongly disagree with you that they over developed the area. If I was talking about Sacramento then I might agree with you. But in SF there is no place to build much of anything new. The commercial building have been there before I was born. Just a year ago you couldn't find property to lease out very easily or as cheap as you can now. Nothing would stay on the market long enough. Now there are so many vacancies. Businesses can't get loans. They just can't.

How is it easy to get a home mortgage now? If that was the case you would see more and more people buying these cheap properties but that is not the case. The banking standards have made it harder for people to get loans. The people that are buying right now are investors that have cash. Your assessment just doesn't make sense.

We aren't creating anything new. That is a fact. I backed my statements up and you haven't. You are going off of what you think. The trade deficit is not modest and it should be alarming. Take our great state of CA we are in the whole. Sure we make money and that is not our problem we are spenders. So when you look at our trade deficit we are spending more then we are shipping out. CA like our country is in the hole financially because we can't manage our money and have borrowed too much that we can't repay the debt at this time. So now is the time for us to look at our expenses at cut back.

[bayarea-girl]

Also, the real unemployment numbers I am sure the powers that be know those numbers. Will we be previe to the information probably not until after we've gotten out of this recession.

[user_id]

Originally Posted by bayarea-girl

Never sad that I don't understand that jobs lag recovery, meaning that unemployment should stabilize and new jobs are created unlike what is happening now. Unemployment is still climbing not declining. So this so called recovery is not really happening.

You said "It makes sense that as an economy is recovering that jobs are the last to be added. I'm actually not disbutting that." and that went on to saying something conflicting.

You seem to not understand how an economy can grow (i.e., not be in a recession) while also having an increasing unemployment and the answer is simply "population growth". Suppose that there are 1 million new workers each year, but only 800,000 new jobs are created. Here, the economy is growing and adding jobs, but there are 200,000 people without jobs and hence the unemployment rate increases. You see "new jobs" can be created, while having an increasing unemployment rate!

But this is a separate issue from the fact that the unemployment rate lags the recovery. This has happened in every recession since WW2, see here:

EmploymentMeasureAug2009.jpg (image)

Originally Posted by bayarea-girl

The end of the recession to me means again that jobs aren't being lost at such a high rate month after month. That people are able to get loans to buy homes. Credit card companies aren't closing and that regular banks aren't in trouble. Do you know how many banks close monthly? It is a ridiculous number.

Exactly, none of this is what it means for the recession to end and that is the problem. You hear people talk about the recession ending and you are thinking it means the above, but it does not.

And to say it again, people are able to get mortgages just fine. Also around 10~15 banks are failing a month.

You seem to think "end of recession" means "a return to insane lending", lending is going to continue to tighten. Its going to get harder to get a mortgage (you'll need crazy things like down payments), credit cards will have lower limits, higher rates and will be harder to get. Auto loans will start to require those crazy down payments, etc. But this is all a return to normal lending.

Originally Posted by bayarea-girl

In San Francisco, the are a I was referring to when going over the commercial property vacancies I strongly disagree with you that they over developed the area.

San Fransisco does not exist in a glass bubble, building both in and outside of San Fransisco will effect the demand for commercial real estate within San Fransisco. Any business that does not depend on local demand (e.g., a restaurant) can move to an area just outside the city and they will do just that if the prices are better.

Commercial property in California has been overbuilt, this effects all areas. Prices in San Fransisco will need to drop until it makes sense for businesses to stay/move to the city to do business.

Originally Posted by bayarea-girl

How is it easy to get a home mortgage now? If that was the case you would see more and more people buying these cheap properties but that is not the case.

Wait....what cheap properties? The only area that has "cheap properties" are the inland communities. Coastal California is still very much expensive.

Anyhow, its easy to get a mortgage right now because the FED and government are supporting the mortgage markets. You can get a FHA loan with just 3.5% down payment! Jumbos are a bit harder to get, but no harder than 10 years ago. Historically Jumbos required decent sized down payments, only during the last 7 years or was it possible to get a Jumbo with little down payment.

Originally Posted by bayarea-girl

We aren't creating anything new. That is a fact. I backed my statements up and you haven't.

Huh? You did not back up anything, you simply stated that there was a trade deficit. Something that I already mentioned. A trade deficit does not mean "we are not creating anything new", nor does it mean that we don't export anything. Rather it means we import more than we export.

I honestly don't even know what you are suggesting. Boeing is working on new planes, caterpillar is working on new industrial equipment, Intel is working on next generation processors, Microsoft is working on a new OS (Windows 7), Apple is working on next generation products, etc. Every major company is working and developing new products.

[bayarea-girl]

Unless the residential properties are under $400K, maybe it has been raised but you can't get government lending for mortgages in CA in a nice area for under $400K and in order to get these loans the properties have to be within a certain area. People can't get mortgages just fine they barely can even refinance their existing loans.

Your assessment of the recession being over and job growth is a bit flawed and I don't agree with it at all. I'm not factoring in new workers (pt workers looking for ft work or the college graduates or mothers ready to rejoin the workforce, why should I it only makes the scenario even more bleak, while your at it factor in all the jobs that are being shipped off to other countries) in my evaluation and proof that the recession is not over, I'm only considering the people that have lost their jobs and have been unemployed for the last 12 months+. Will they be able to find work are new jobs being created for them? How many people do they have to compete with for that one opportunity? Do we even have accurate data of how many people are unemployed, nope. It is currently estimated that 14.9 million people are unemployed, again a number I believe is higher and is growing. Somehow you think that 10 million jobs have been created or will be created in the next month or so? In order to have a stable economy we are looking at 150,000 - 180,000 new jobs need to be created each and every month. That is not happening, this is not a stable economy. You may not feel it because you probably have a job. I have a job but I feel it. BTW, we are adding less than 50,000 new jobs per month and we probably won't see job growth until 2010-2011 (about the same time housing is suppose to stabilize).

Employment Situation Summary
now Total Unemployed Nearly 12 Million
Total 10 Year Job Gains: Negative 203k | The Big Picture
How jobs growth forecast was done - USATODAY.com
Obama: Economy probably won't produce enough jobs until 2010 - CNN.com
10-Year Private Sector Job Growth Finally Goes Negative - BusinessWeek

Look at it this way, in order for the housing to stabilize it means prices don't increase significantly and prices don't decrease either. Prices should remain pretty stable. This is just not happening. In other states where people can buy homes with cash for like $50K and or less they can't do so. The reason why they can't is because of the recession. They don't have the money and don't have the jobs to do so and probably can't get the loan from the bank. The funny thing is in some places banks can't even give the properties away.

94 banks (and counting ) have closed this year. The FDIC is running out of $$$.
FDIC: Failed Bank List and some how you still think that we have a stable economy and or we are recovering? I'm all for being optimistic but at some point we have to face reality.

According to the New York Times: FOR the first time since the Depression, the American economy has added virtually no jobs in the private sector over a 10-year period.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/08/bu.../08charts.html

The commercial vacancy rate in SF is a clear indication to me that new jobs won't be added any time soon.

[tijlover]

Originally Posted by FresnoFacts

Here's one today from what was just a few years ago a big destination for those leaving California:
Las Vegas 13.4%

I hear so many critics here in Las Vegas who blame our unemployment situation on the fact that we've done too little to diversify our economy, being too dependent on gaming.

Reading your recent unemployment figures in a diversified California economy I should hope should help silence the critics here if they should read these statistics.

[user_id]

Originally Posted by bayarea-girl

Unless the residential properties are under $400K, maybe it has been raised but you can't get government lending for mortgages in CA in a nice area for under $400K

They raised the confirming limit quite a bit ago, its not $400k in California.

Originally Posted by bayarea-girl

People can't get mortgages just fine they barely can even refinance their existing loans.

What people are you talking about? People with no income, bad credit and no down payment? Yeah those people can't get a mortgage. But people with decent credit, down payments and verifiable income are having no trouble getting mortgages right now. As I said before, the mortgage is still looser today than it was 10 years ago because the government is supporting the market right now.

Refinance is a totally different issue, the reason why so many people can't refinance is because they are underwater! People with equity and appropriate income are able to refinance just fine.

Originally Posted by bayarea-girl

I'm only considering the people that have lost their jobs and have been unemployed for the last 12 months+. Will they be able to find work are new jobs being created for them?

Obviously jobs are not created for particular people. Whether or not the guy that has been unemployed for the last 12 months is going to be able to find a job soon has a lot to do with what industry he works in. A number of industries got over heated during the housing bubble and there are simply too many people looking for jobs in that field. These people are going to need to look into other opportunities.

Regardless, the unemployment rate is high and its going to take awhile for it to start to decline. But that is not inconsistent with the recession ending today. Again, the problem here is that you are misinterpreting the word "recession" for something that it is not.

Originally Posted by bayarea-girl

Somehow you think that 10 million jobs have been created or will be created in the next month or so?

I never suggested such a thing. Rather I've suggested that the recession can end while the unemployment rate keeps increasing. Which is true, its happened a number of times in the past.

Originally Posted by bayarea-girl

The commercial vacancy rate in SF is a clear indication to me that new jobs won't be added any time soon.

New jobs are being added, its just that jobs are also being lost. But you are pretending I said things I did not, I never suggested the employment situation is going to improve anytime soon.

[bayarea-girl]

They raised the confirming limit in 2008 to $600K+. It expires at the end of this year. Again, one would have to live in a certain area like Oakland to qualify. Not every area or person will qualify for these types of loans. Fannie Mae Loans, Conforming Mortgage $729,750 to $625,500, Conforming Jumbo Mortgage

People with A+ credit are still having a hard time getting loans. It has been all over the papers. Here are some examples of what I am talking about. Not everyone is a subprime borrower and I was not considering them. People are not able to refinance just fine. Do we even live in the same country?
http://www.gjsentinel.com/hp/content...tories/2009/09
http://www.rebuild.org/news-article/...ng_hangup.html
Unlikely suspects walk away from mortgages

Don't think I am misinterpreting what a recession is:

• the state of the economy declines; a widespread decline in the GDP and employment and trade lasting from six months to a year
• recess: a small concavity
• the act of ceding back

Maybe the correct term for what is happening is called a Depression:

• a mental state characterized by a pessimistic sense of inadequacy and a despondent lack of activity
• a long-term economic state characterized by unemployment and low prices and low levels of trade and investment
• natural depression: a sunken or depressed geological formation
• sad feelings of gloom and inadequacy
• a period during the 1930s when there was a worldwide economic depression and mass unemployment
• low: an air mass of lower pressure; often brings precipitation; "a low moved in over night bringing sleet and snow"
• depressive disorder: a state of depression and anhedonia so severe as to require clinical intervention
• angular distance below the horizon (especially of a celestial object)

In economics, a recession is a general slowdown in economic activity over a long period of time, or a business cycle contraction.[1][2] During recessions, many macroeconomic indicators vary in a similar way. Production as measured by Gross Domestic Product (GDP), employment, investment spending, capacity utilization, household incomes and business profits all fall during recessions.
Governments usually respond to recessions by adopting expansionary macroeconomic policies, such as increasing money supply, increasing government spending and decreasing taxation.


Again, new jobs are being added but not at a rate that will hold true for a stabilizing economy. For us to be out of this recession we need to be creating new jobs of 150K to 180K per month. We are not doing so. We are creating less than 50K jobs. More jobs are being lost than new jobs created so things are not balancing themselves out now are they? So this means we are not out of the woods.



Some how you glossed over my other findings and have taken a small portion of what I am saying to bolster your argument which is ok, but others can read. Never said anything you didn't say or try to convey, I might have gotten something mixed up but thought you said we are out of the recession and that things are improving? I don't see the improvements and believe we will be in this recession/depression until sometime next year into 2011.