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Old 06-01-2007, 01:37 AM
HDL
 
Location: Seek Jesus while He can still be found!
3,140 posts, read 6,005,965 times
Reputation: 8239

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I just found out this past weekend that my former home in the Sacramento area is in foreclosure and back on the market as a Short Sale ! It is currently listed for 12% less than what I sold it for in July 2005, but I expect that IF it sells (which is highly unlikely in the current market place), it will sell for 25% less than what I sold it for at it's peak .

The funny thing is, I would always hear Realtors say if you priced a home right, it would sell ! Now, I'm hearing Realtors say you have to give it six months or increase the commission to Agents ! Prices are still HIGH in CA, but the media really does not report how bad it truly is in many areas of CA with overbuilding and excessive inventories .

I wonder how many ex-Californians will return and buy again ! I may be interested in Santa Cruz/Aptos/Soquel when that market decreases more .
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Old 06-01-2007, 01:42 AM
 
11,715 posts, read 35,875,875 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by happydawglady View Post
I wonder how many ex-Californians will return and buy again ! I may be interested in Santa Cruz/Aptos/Soquel when that market decreases more .
Well in my area, prices would have to drop by at least 50% across the board to restore some sanity to the price to income ratio. I don't see that happening.
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Old 06-01-2007, 09:59 AM
 
4,610 posts, read 10,188,509 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by happydawglady View Post
I wonder how many ex-Californians will return and buy again ! I may be interested in Santa Cruz/Aptos/Soquel when that market decreases more .

We are planning on returning in about a year. (wish it was sooner though). We shall see where this market goes. Everyone can guess but no one knows for sure. Anything can happen to change this one way or another.
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Old 06-01-2007, 11:08 AM
 
Location: Happiness is found inside your smile :)
3,178 posts, read 13,395,862 times
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Default Crossing my fingers

Quote:
Originally Posted by happydawglady View Post
I just found out this past weekend that my former home in the Sacramento area is in foreclosure and back on the market as a Short Sale !

SEE!!!! I told you the Sac market is plummeting - go down baby - go down!!!
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Old 06-06-2007, 06:01 AM
 
1,868 posts, read 5,221,864 times
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Default Another article for the "cheerleaders" to tear apart

State of the Housing Market: Update from Schahrzad Berkland | eFinanceDirectory.com
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Old 06-06-2007, 06:43 AM
 
458 posts, read 685,496 times
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Interesting article. Historical Southern California Real Estate prices:

Historical Median Home Sales Prices From 1982

2007 looks like 1991. The fundamentals in 1991 were much stronger than today. You had higher interest rates, less questionable loans and a greater percentage of people could afford homes at their current prices. Plus in the early 90's prices had not risen nearly as fast as they have the past few years. The down potential is much greater this time.

I predict a 40% drop over the next 4-5 years. If you look back at the early 90's, prices leveled off for about 4 years near their highs, then they dropped rapidly. Looking at current prices, we are on year number 3 or 4 of these current prices (depending on which county you are looking at), so 2008 should be interesting.

Just like the increase in prices was much greater than most expected, the drop will be also.

In 5-10 years when this all shakes out, I will be back to buying in SoCal. But not yet, not at these prices.

Last edited by Winkelman; 06-06-2007 at 07:03 AM..
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Old 06-06-2007, 10:18 AM
 
Location: Sacramento
13,781 posts, read 23,755,254 times
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Berkland's drop is inflation adjusted, so if the market drop 20% from a peak in the summer of 2006 over a four year period, he would consider this to be about a 33% decline (assuming a 3% inflation rate). Since he views bottoms of cycles running from 5-7 years, a 20% drop over a six year period (the midpoint in his range) would equate to a 40% drop.
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Old 06-06-2007, 10:19 AM
 
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I just looked at last months title numbers and in The O.C. the number of sales is down but the price is still up. Certain pockets of the county are slower then others. But if a home is priced right from the beginning and has the great exposure they are still selling relatively quickly as a whole!.
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Old 06-06-2007, 10:49 AM
 
4,610 posts, read 10,188,509 times
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I have to agree about the Orange County market. I flew out there about 6 weeks ago to look at homes in Laguna Beach, Laguna Niguel and Dana Point with ocean views. These homes are moving (selling). Some of the homes I looked at are already in escrow. For me, If the location is great, the home is in move-in condition and the view is the view I am looking for, then I will pay the price. We can't buy right now anyways and I was just looking to see what I could get for the money. We'll see what happens.
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Old 06-06-2007, 01:50 PM
 
Location: Windermere, FL
269 posts, read 804,097 times
Reputation: 172
Default California Housing Market

Here's my 2 cents...

I think that the overall market in California will drop another 4.5% this year and about 5% next year. Then there will be about 2 years of stagnant prices...they won't go up they won't go down. From that point on we'll see a return to the normal/historical appreciation rate of 1.5% annually. The poster earlier that predicted it would shoot up 40% above 2006 levels is dreaming...maybe over the next 40 years.

The last 7 years was a once in a lifetime ride and i'ts over.
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