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Old 05-30-2007, 07:56 AM
 
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Are CA home headed for the sky or are they about to crash? Discuss your thoughts on the housing market in CA here.
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Old 05-30-2007, 11:04 AM
 
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Great idea Sassberto. Now if we talk about the crash...it won't get deleted? lol
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Old 05-30-2007, 03:23 PM
 
Location: Tijuana Exurbs
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Housing prices peaked in late 2004 to mid 2005 in San Diego. Prices have probably declined anywhere from 10% - 20% since then depending on location, perhaps 25% declines for some condos. I believe SFRs won't drop any further than 20% after which they'll be flat until about 2011. After that the appreciation will begin again, but nowhere near the speed we experienced in the 1998-2005 period. That appreciation was caused by record low mortgage rates the likes of which we'll never see again.

Anyone predicting or hoping for 50% price declines, sorry, it isn't going to happen.

My guess for the best time to buy, probably 2010 or 2011. You'll reap the value of most of the decline by then, and reap the benefits of all of the appreciation to come in the 7 years that follow. However, that appreciation will probably be in the 4% - 5% a year range for SFRs.

So home 'less' folks start saving up for your down payment. You've got 3 years to get it done!
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Old 05-30-2007, 03:33 PM
 
Location: Happiness is found inside your smile :)
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I see the Sacramento market starting to plummet - now if it could just go down to 2004 prices I could move back!
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Old 05-30-2007, 03:50 PM
 
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Because so many people wish the Sac market would plummet, it probably won't.

We're down maybe 10% from the peak in late 2005 in Folsom. Pretty much sideways action of late. I don't see too many for sale signs up compared to last year.

Seattle seems like it's been a good market the last few years. Must be all the business Boeing has been picking up.
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Old 05-30-2007, 04:38 PM
 
Location: Happiness is found inside your smile :)
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Here's a great comparison for you Kingsnkali

My ex bought his house at the SAME time we bought ours

His in Elk Grove was 320K, ours in Seattle was 310K - so very similar in price!

In 2005 his house was approx 500K

His now (by zillow.com) is 388K, ours is 530K!!!
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Old 05-30-2007, 05:09 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CityGirl72 View Post
Here's a great comparison for you Kingsnkali

My ex bought his house at the SAME time we bought ours

His in Elk Grove was 320K, ours in Seattle was 310K - so very similar in price!

In 2005 his house was approx 500K

His now (by zillow.com) is 388K, ours is 530K!!!
That's very interesting. Zillow tends to estimate high too. My friends house in San Diego says it's worth about 130k more than what the exact same house just sold for down the street.
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Old 05-30-2007, 05:21 PM
 
Location: Alexandria, VA
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Zillow is all over the place....it often runs way to high or way too low seen both about equally there!
MBG
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Old 05-31-2007, 12:02 AM
 
Location: Sacramento
13,781 posts, read 23,751,182 times
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Default Predicting Home Prices

Based upon the lack of good land availability, employment growth and compensation and population projections, I would predict that after a brief downturn the market will head back up.

Calling timeframes and % is always difficult but I'll take a stab at it. I think that prices will decline about 10-20% from their peak, nominally the spring of 2006 time frame. I think that by the end of 2009, prices will begin to climb again. My long term prediction, allowing for the psychological nuances of pricing and markets, is that 10 years from now, during the summer of 2017, prices will be at least 40% above their 2006 peak.
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Old 05-31-2007, 11:46 PM
 
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San Jose market is still doing pretty good. The low end of the market is getting hit, as is expected. The middle to high ends are still going up in value, and not staying on the market long. In the suburb I live in, homes are selling in a weekend for over the asking price. A home recently sold around here for over $100K over the asking price in 1 day. Ouch! I agree you shouldn't wait too long.
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