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Old 08-15-2019, 01:02 PM
 
Location: New York Area
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Acajack View Post
Here in Quebec in particular the economic/financial argument has always been, rightly or wrongly, the Achilles heel of the independence movement.

As Quebec has become more confident in its abilities and prospects, this has become a bit less of an issue that people will use against the separatists. Though ironically Quebec's relatively good economic fortunes have made many people less angry about their "situation", and therefore has taken much of the wind out of the separatist sails.

But I challenge anyone to find a quote from a Quebec separatist politician saying that we can afford to become independent because, anyway, the UN, the World Bank, the IMF, etc. will bail us out if we run into trouble.
I don't think anyone in any of the other "postage stamp" republics openly discusses that issue either. But there is a reason that prior to WW I no colonies were actively seeking independence except for the successful ones, i.e. the U.S., Canada, Australia and New Zealand. It is true that the Philippines did resist the transfer of power from Spain to the U.S. but that was, in hindsight, more of a case of Islamic radicalism, early 1900's style. Mindanao, and other southern islands have been ungovernable even by "independent" Philippines. During the inter-war period, Ireland, and India, which are either viable or borderline viable, were among the few independence-seekers.

The floodgates opened after WW II and the establishment of the U.N. and the U.S. Marshall Plan. I doubt that was coincidence. At least Quebec had referendums in 1980 and 1995, both of which went "non." The people may have been motivated by a combination of forward-looking economics and the fact that any Clarity Act referendums and negotiations were likely to require Quebec to compensate the ROC for airports, highways, the Seaway and other improvements.That is likely the genesis of the possibly apocryphal "lobster in boiling pot" remark Parizeau may have made. The Kenyans may have had less choice when the Mau Maus fought for independence. I digress, but "oui" was close to winning the last vote. Not sure on the margins in 1980.

As far as finding someone saying that Quebec can rely on the U.N. you won't find it. That doesn't mean that they are not conscious of the netting under the trapeze.

Mod cut.

Last edited by PJSaturn; Today at 03:09 PM.. Reason: Orphaned (reply to post which has been deleted).
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Old 08-15-2019, 01:14 PM
 
Location: Gatineau, Québec
22,294 posts, read 27,761,595 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jbgusa View Post

The floodgates opened after WW II and the establishment of the U.N. and the U.S. Marshall Plan. I doubt that was coincidence. At least Quebec had referendums in 1980 and 1995, both of which went "non." The people may have been motivated by a combination of forward-looking economics and the fact that any Clarity Act referendums .
.
The Clarity Act was adopted in 2000 so five years after the last referendum in 1995. In that campaign (and that of 1980) there was no discussion of the Clarity Act or anything of that sort.


The Clarity Act was a federal reaction to the shock of the near-death experience of 1995.


Prior to that (both in 1980 and right up to the last minute in 1995) the feds never even considered that Oui could ever come close to winning, as they almost did.


So they were confident with the referendum process as it was because they were pretty darn sure they'd always win.


The Clarity Act is directly related to the feds' realization that the Oui actually could obtain a majority of votes one day.
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Old 08-15-2019, 01:16 PM
 
Location: Gatineau, Québec
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jbgusa View Post
.That is likely the genesis of the possibly apocryphal "lobster in boiling pot" remark Parizeau may have made..

Again, this is not related to the Clarity Act at all. The comment was made in 1995 and no one had ever heard of the act at that time.
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Old 08-15-2019, 01:17 PM
 
Location: Gatineau, Québec
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jbgusa View Post
. I digress, but "oui" was close to winning the last vote. Not sure on the margins in 1980.

.

Roughly 50.6 to 49.4 in 1995.


About 59-41 in 1980.
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Old 08-15-2019, 01:19 PM
 
Location: Gatineau, Québec
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jbgusa View Post
negotiations were likely to require Quebec to compensate the ROC for airports, highways, the Seaway and other improvements..

It's generally agreed by both sides that this type of compensation would not be on the table, as Quebecers of course have paid through their taxes for 20-25% of any federal stuff in the rest of the country. So they'd pretty much call it even.


So yes there would be tough negotiations, but not about this.
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Old 08-15-2019, 01:24 PM
 
Location: New York Area
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Acajack View Post
It's generally agreed by both sides that this type of compensation would not be on the table, as Quebecers of course have paid through their taxes for 20-25% of any federal stuff in the rest of the country. So they'd pretty much call it even.

So yes there would be tough negotiations, but not about this.
About what else could there be to negotiate? As far at the tax payments what about equalization?
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Old 08-15-2019, 01:58 PM
 
Location: New York Area
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Mod cut: Quoted post deleted.

I actually did not know the timing of the Clarity Act. Or what gave Quebec the ability to unilaterally schedule a referendum about secession. That did not go too well in the U.S. when a commission authorized by Virginia's state legislature, on April 17, 1861, voted to secede from the union.

Last edited by PJSaturn; Today at 03:11 PM..
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Old 08-15-2019, 02:39 PM
 
Location: Gatineau, Québec
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jbgusa View Post
I actually did not know the timing of the Clarity Act. Or what gave Quebec the ability to unilaterally schedule a referendum about secession. That did not go too well in the U.S. when a commission authorized by Virginia's state legislature, on April 17, 1861, voted to secede from the union.
The bolded raises a good question. Part of the reason Quebec has been allowed to hold two votes on secession is what I alluded to earlier: the feds were always convinced they'd win up until that point.


Another reason is guilt. I'd say there were two forms of guilt at play. One in 1980 and one 1995.


In 1980 there was still quite a bit of guilt or at least sympathy among Anglo-Canadians that French Canadians had gotten a raw deal in the federation. People were not supportive of separation and hoped for a Non win but a lot of people understood the reason for the flirtation with independence.


By 1995 francophones' fortunes (and that of their language) had improved quite a bit and some of the guilt about the raw deal had evaporated, but a few years before we'd had the failure of the Meech Lake accord which was meant as an olive branch to Quebec to get it to sign onto the Constitution. Meech's failure was seen by most everyone inside and also some people outside Quebec, as a slap in the face to Quebec. Perhaps there was a bit of resignation as well à la "well, maybe we aren't meant to share a country with Quebec after all?" The federal and non-Québécois political classes in Canada were also a bit at a loss for words and bereft of ideas at the time, which left the door open for another referendum without much of anyone (credible) questioning why we had to go through this again.
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Old 08-15-2019, 02:43 PM
 
Location: Gatineau, Québec
22,294 posts, read 27,761,595 times
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Without getting overly poetic, there is also something revealing about how Canada sees itself when the mosaic imagery is evoked, as opposed to the U.S. melting pot.


A mosaic is made up of constituent parts the retain their physical integrity even when they become part of a larger whole. You can break off one part of the mosaic but the rest of the mosaic still continues to exist as a whole.


A melting pot leads to a blend. Once things are blended (in a kind of fusion) you can no longer separate the constituent parts that were once distinct elements from each other.


(end of the poetry lecture)
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Old 08-15-2019, 02:52 PM
 
Location: Gatineau, Québec
22,294 posts, read 27,761,595 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jbgusa View Post
About what else could there be to negotiate? As far at the tax payments what about equalization?
Equalization (at least for Quebec) would be dead in the water if Quebec became independent.


But there would be plenty of other stuff to negotiate like the national debt, how freely goods and people would flow between the two countries, citizenship (dual or not), matters of trade and taxation, currency, public service employees and pensions, the rights of indigenous peoples, etc.
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