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Old 08-31-2015, 09:41 AM
 
1,691 posts, read 1,657,050 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gouligann View Post
I live on a border town and when the Canadian dollar is decent, we often go across once a week and shop for groceries in the states. There are many items we can't even get in Canada and the savings are well worth it.

What confuses me is that when our dollar is low, we hardly see any cars with American tags (lisence plates) over here doing the same thing.

I wonder if US citizens don't realize or don't care how much money they can save shopping in Canada when their dollar is so much better than ours?

Are they patriotic to the point that they don't want to spend their money in Canada, or do they not want to bother getting passports (thanks to 911) so they can cross back and forth?
Honestly, even with the exchange rate, prices in many parts of Canada are just coming to par with American prices.
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Old 09-01-2015, 02:38 AM
 
Location: Toronto
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Originally Posted by botticelli View Post
life time might be an over exaggeration (for some of people it could be true), I know, but if we look at historical exchange rate, the 90c+ is really very rare.

I don't claim to be an expert or have a crystal ball, but the reason behind CAD's high value in the previous years was oil price, now two factors make it less likely in the future (same for AUD)

1) China's growth slowed. I don't think it will revert to the consistent 9-10% growth any more.
2) the oil industry has experience some fundamental structural change. the US is becoming an export from an net importer.

I am not saying it is totally impossible - nobody can, but unless we have a strong growth engine as huge as China (India doesn't come close, Brazil/Russia are in recession), or there is some sort of huge disruption in oil supply, I just don't see how CAD can revert to its high level. Now is probably a bit of an oversold but 80-85c is probably reasonable.

Of course I totally want to have the 1:1 era back, not that I am particularly interested in visiting any part of the US any time soon (Ecuador uses USD too!)

I agree with you the Canada economy is resilient but it has always been. It is not something new so why do we expect high CAD compared with historical average? Canada didn't get comparatively stronger vis--vis the US. And we still largely depend on the US for exporting.
Total exaggeration Botti.. An economy is too complicated and factors around the world too complex to make such long term predictions. Nobody would have predicted 20 years ago that Canada would rise from 72 cent USD to at parity or greater in 15 years but that is exactly what happened.

Canada is a resource rich country with a low population.. If its not oil we don't know what the global situation is going to be like in 15-20 years and beyond where demand for oil or even other resources will prop up the value.. Too far away to make such bold predictions. Its not just resources either, we simply don't know other industries that could someday prop up the value of CAD.

Also, we need to look at the importance of this to most of our daily lives.. For me its largely unchanged except when I travel I notice that its more expensive - not really an impact to me but I'm in a dual income partnership with low fixed expenses I can absorb it very largely no problema, my travel patterns simply won't change. Has your life changed drastically in a .76 USD world vs a 1.00 USD world in Canada? Food a bit more expensive - maybe but gas is cheaper but I just got a 3 percent yearly COL raise at work - soooo you know what I mean? Be honest aside from macro-economics what has changed for you in the last few months - I bet not too much.. Do you think Nat, BK Brusan, Magnatomicflux, Zoisite, Acajack etc have their lives changed drastically in a .76 USD world? Probably not.. Jambo said he isn't going to the U.S as much as he would normally - hey fair enough I won't either but big deal, all the more reason to travel some place else whose dollar has depreciated in a similar fashion...

In the near term I think you're right, I think as long as oil remains depressed there isn't anything else in the near future that will be able to boost it up in the CAD economy to parity.. I'd go far to say that in the next 5 years you are most likely probably very very right but who knows.. In a little over a year we went from what a hundred dollars or more a barrel of oil to what is it now 48 dollars.... I have no clue in certainty how much a barrel of oil is going to cost in 2018, 2021, 2024, 2027 etc and that is just speaking to oil.. With that said Botti, most of us in these forums in the Canada section have lived in Canada a long time, we are used to a CAD dollar value less than .80 USD - we survived then largely no problem and we will now and into the future

Last edited by fusion2; 09-01-2015 at 03:29 AM..
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Old 09-01-2015, 07:15 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fusion2 View Post

Also, we need to look at the importance of this to most of our daily lives.. For me its largely unchanged except when I travel I notice that its more expensive - not really an impact to me but I'm in a dual income partnership with low fixed expenses I can absorb it very largely no problema, my travel patterns simply won't change. Has your life changed drastically in a .76 USD world vs a 1.00 USD world in Canada? Food a bit more expensive - maybe but gas is cheaper but I just got a 3 percent yearly COL raise at work - soooo you know what I mean? Be honest aside from macro-economics what has changed for you in the last few months - I bet not too much.. Do you think Nat, BK Brusan, Magnatomicflux, Zoisite, Acajack etc have their lives changed drastically in a .76 USD world? Probably not.. Jambo said he isn't going to the U.S as much as he would normally - hey fair enough I won't either but big deal, all the more reason to travel some place else whose dollar has depreciated in a similar fashion...
I never said declining exchange rate impacts our daily lives. I hardly felt it in making purchases either, except a few items which I normally buy from USD denominated websites. And since I no longer has interest in visiting the US any time soon (after Yellowstone this year I am pretty much done with the country), it doesn't really impact my travel plan that much either. Visiting the US is very expensive to start with because the hotel price is very high, even before the exchange rate swing. A budget to visit west coast USA is close to a trip to west Europe all things considered so I really don't see the point of doing that. Fortunately the Euro fell almost as much.

I agree nobody can really predict exchange rate fluctuations. I am only talking based on historical normalcy.
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Old 09-01-2015, 07:23 AM
 
10,847 posts, read 11,265,341 times
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Originally Posted by db108108 View Post
Honestly, even with the exchange rate, prices in many parts of Canada are just coming to par with American prices.
I don't start to believe people actually would think Americans would be better off shopping in Canada. The sheer size of our sales tax is high enough to deter most of them. On top of that, gas price if they ever need to refill (still 30% higher even with current exchange rate).

People in Pennsylvania, Massachusetts and New York pay 0% sales tax on clothing and footwear (for items under a certain price level). New Hampshire and Oregon simply charges no sales tax at all (so people in Washington, Vermont or Maine would probably shop there than in BC or Quebec). And just by checking the price on American online retails one would immediately realize it makes absolutely no sense for an American to make purchases in Canada.
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Old 09-01-2015, 08:53 AM
 
18,275 posts, read 10,377,134 times
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Originally Posted by botticelli View Post
no problem, Mexico is still on this continent and remains cheap. This continent had more than two countries.
A younger perspective that no longer suites our desires .

Having visited Mexico many times in the past and making a very conscious decision at this age in life to not want to spend any more time in countries with begging children, high crime and the associated risk - I'll go to places that are not chit-holes thanks. Cheap is not the major consideration now.

Been there, done that, have more than one "T" shirt, don't need any more now. We're now much older and picky about our surroundings. Being accosted with a hand out on the street or trying to enjoy a meal on a terrace while my view is filled with poverty and filth is an experience I'm going to forego to spend more time with "established friends" rather than look for new "acquaintances".

There was a time when adventure and curiosity were the major factors in our travel considerations,.... not today.

Our remaining time is at a premium. We'll spend it wisely.

Having said the above, a River Cruise or visit to a Greek Isle has been discussed with emphasis from my better half that there be no available golfing.
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Old 09-01-2015, 09:36 AM
 
Location: Hougary, Texberta
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BruSan View Post
A younger perspective that no longer suites our desires .

making a very conscious decision at this age in life to not want to spend any more time in countries with begging children, high crime and the associated risk - I'll go to places that are not chit-holes thanks.

Definitely scratch the US.
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Old 09-01-2015, 10:03 AM
 
18,275 posts, read 10,377,134 times
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Originally Posted by mikeyyc View Post
Definitely scratch the US.
Sorry; but for us, that does not follow the reasoning already provided.

It also does not follow the more commonly accepted logic. The U.S. and Canada still provide those things that have come to be suited to our priorities in later life as I was very careful to explain in my prior post.
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Old 09-01-2015, 01:13 PM
 
1,691 posts, read 1,657,050 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by botticelli View Post
I don't start to believe people actually would think Americans would be better off shopping in Canada. The sheer size of our sales tax is high enough to deter most of them. On top of that, gas price if they ever need to refill (still 30% higher even with current exchange rate).

People in Pennsylvania, Massachusetts and New York pay 0% sales tax on clothing and footwear (for items under a certain price level). New Hampshire and Oregon simply charges no sales tax at all (so people in Washington, Vermont or Maine would probably shop there than in BC or Quebec). And just by checking the price on American online retails one would immediately realize it makes absolutely no sense for an American to make purchases in Canada.
After being in NS for a month (home, for me - currently live in Ohio), the only thing that is a steal is lumber which is more expensive in the US, even with the exchange rate. Other things range from almost at par (even factoring in the advantage of using a US credit card), to mildly overpriced, to ridiculously overpriced. A rotisserie chicken in NS is 10.99, for instance. Here in Ohio, it's 4.99. I could go on and on.
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Old 09-01-2015, 03:34 PM
 
Location: Toronto
12,581 posts, read 11,141,644 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by botticelli View Post
I never said declining exchange rate impacts our daily lives. I hardly felt it in making purchases either, except a few items which I normally buy from USD denominated websites. And since I no longer has interest in visiting the US any time soon (after Yellowstone this year I am pretty much done with the country), it doesn't really impact my travel plan that much either. Visiting the US is very expensive to start with because the hotel price is very high, even before the exchange rate swing. A budget to visit west coast USA is close to a trip to west Europe all things considered so I really don't see the point of doing that. Fortunately the Euro fell almost as much.

I agree nobody can really predict exchange rate fluctuations. I am only talking based on historical normalcy.
Yeah I agree with this post.. With the value of the CAD right now I simply don't see the appeal of visiting the U.S when I could go to so many other cheaper places.. More bang for the buck..

I agree about historical normalcy btw - the CAD dollar at parity was unusual but if it happens once, it can happen again but we'll see, its not causing me sleepless nights one way or the other.
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Old 09-01-2015, 03:36 PM
 
Location: Toronto
12,581 posts, read 11,141,644 times
Reputation: 3738
Quote:
Originally Posted by BruSan View Post
A younger perspective that no longer suites our desires .

Having visited Mexico many times in the past and making a very conscious decision at this age in life to not want to spend any more time in countries with begging children, high crime and the associated risk - I'll go to places that are not chit-holes thanks. Cheap is not the major consideration now.

Been there, done that, have more than one "T" shirt, don't need any more now. We're now much older and picky about our surroundings. Being accosted with a hand out on the street or trying to enjoy a meal on a terrace while my view is filled with poverty and filth is an experience I'm going to forego to spend more time with "established friends" rather than look for new "acquaintances".

There was a time when adventure and curiosity were the major factors in our travel considerations,.... not today.

Our remaining time is at a premium. We'll spend it wisely.

Having said the above, a River Cruise or visit to a Greek Isle has been discussed with emphasis from my better half that there be no available golfing.
Chit-holes - Bru this is the first post of yours ever that makes me go

I LOVED Mexico City - my kind of Chit hole lol..
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