U.S. CitiesCity-Data Forum Index
Go Back   City-Data Forum > World Forums > Canada
 [Register]
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
View detailed profile (Advanced) or search
site with Google Custom Search

Search Forums  (Advanced)
Reply Start New Thread
 
Old 10-12-2015, 01:57 PM
 
Location: Toronto
12,581 posts, read 11,170,425 times
Reputation: 3738

Advertisements

Quote:
Originally Posted by BruSan View Post
Uuuh; change it to what?
An asteroid is on a collision course with the earth.. Better move now!
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message

 
Old 10-12-2015, 10:06 PM
 
1,691 posts, read 1,659,973 times
Reputation: 1168
Lower! Lower! My student loans are in CAD, so lower!

I must check the exchange rate on xe.com about 20 times a day. These last few days have been giving me a sinking feeling, but the dollar has lost about 80 basis points since yesterday, so I'm breathing a bit lighter. I *should* have sent money back when it was 74.50 a week and a half ago.

Seriously though, it's impossible to say. For some fun, search for Canadian Dollar outlook and you'll get a wide variety of views. This time last year nobody thought it would go to 74 cents, so in a year it could end up back in the mid 80s, low 90s (if oil really recovers), or in the 60s. Back in May when the dollar was in the mid 80s, the big banks were predicting a bottom at 81 cents. That obviously didn't happen. So nobody really knows, kind of like with the stock market.

I would bet that, should a minority government be elected on the 19th, the dollar will drop.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 10-13-2015, 08:18 AM
 
Location: Hougary, Texberta
8,607 posts, read 11,111,868 times
Reputation: 10329
Quote:
Originally Posted by db108108 View Post
Lower! Lower! My student loans are in CAD, so lower!

I must check the exchange rate on xe.com about 20 times a day. These last few days have been giving me a sinking feeling, but the dollar has lost about 80 basis points since yesterday, so I'm breathing a bit lighter. I *should* have sent money back when it was 74.50 a week and a half ago.

Seriously though, it's impossible to say. For some fun, search for Canadian Dollar outlook and you'll get a wide variety of views. This time last year nobody thought it would go to 74 cents, so in a year it could end up back in the mid 80s, low 90s (if oil really recovers), or in the 60s. Back in May when the dollar was in the mid 80s, the big banks were predicting a bottom at 81 cents. That obviously didn't happen. So nobody really knows, kind of like with the stock market.

I would bet that, should a minority government be elected on the 19th, the dollar will drop.
Not as much as if either of the other two get a majority.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 10-13-2015, 08:27 AM
 
18,354 posts, read 10,418,262 times
Reputation: 13426
Quote:
Originally Posted by mikeyyc View Post
Not as much as if either of the other two get a majority.
Oh brother! Don't even joke about a thing like that. All those promises and so little tax base to pay for them spread over the long suffering middle class. Gads.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 10-13-2015, 10:55 AM
 
Location: Hougary, Texberta
8,607 posts, read 11,111,868 times
Reputation: 10329
Quote:
Originally Posted by BruSan View Post
Oh brother! Don't even joke about a thing like that. All those promises and so little tax base to pay for them spread over the long suffering middle class. Gads.
As much as I personally don't want it. Part of me wants to say f-it, let the NDP in. Once they're in power, one election cycle and it would be Conservative for the next generation.

That being said, I've been disenfranchised, and living in Texas I'm in the personal hell of the other extreme.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 10-13-2015, 01:23 PM
 
1,691 posts, read 1,659,973 times
Reputation: 1168
Quote:
Originally Posted by BruSan View Post
Oh brother! Don't even joke about a thing like that. All those promises and so little tax base to pay for them spread over the long suffering middle class. Gads.
Yeah. Hopefully the Conservatives won't get a chance to tack another 32% onto the federal debt.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 10-21-2015, 09:36 AM
 
Location: NH/UT/WA
283 posts, read 185,373 times
Reputation: 437
I think it's more likely for CAD to drop to $0.50 US than back to parity.

The twin pillars of Canadian economic growth, high commodity prices and a gigantic property bubble, are beginning to unravel. Take out those two factors and the Canadian economy has been hollowed out and extremely uncompetitive.

Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 10-21-2015, 01:00 PM
 
1,691 posts, read 1,659,973 times
Reputation: 1168
Quote:
Originally Posted by ZachF View Post
I think it's more likely for CAD to drop to $0.50 US than back to parity.

The twin pillars of Canadian economic growth, high commodity prices and a gigantic property bubble, are beginning to unravel. Take out those two factors and the Canadian economy has been hollowed out and extremely uncompetitive.
Nobody in Canada seems to be able to address this. A falling Canadian dollar - which is precipitated by productivity numbers like this - only masks low productivity. With the dollar at 70 some cents, there is little impetus to improve productivity, either.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 10-21-2015, 02:35 PM
 
Location: NH/UT/WA
283 posts, read 185,373 times
Reputation: 437
Quote:
Originally Posted by db108108 View Post
Nobody in Canada seems to be able to address this. A falling Canadian dollar - which is precipitated by productivity numbers like this - only masks low productivity. With the dollar at 70 some cents, there is little impetus to improve productivity, either.
According to the conference board, Canadian productivity in constant PPP dollars per hour grew from $44.80 per hour in 2000 to $51.17 in 2014, a growth rate of less than 1% per year, while the USA grew from $52.86 to $66.47, equal a little under 2% per year, half the rate of the US.

At the same time, the Canadian dollar surged by about 60%, and the rate of inflation was at least equal to and likely greater than that of the US, eventually leading to a giant gap in unit labor costs, basically doubling vs the US from 2001 to 2011... It's no wonder manufacturing's share of GDP declined in that same period from 18% to under 10% now. (The US only dropped from about 15% to 12% over that same period).

It also doesn't help that Canadian tar sand oil is basically the most expensive type of oil extraction in North America.

Canada is going to have a rough next few years, rougher than the US 2008-2011, and the early 90s/late 80s property bubble bust in Canada. Canada will claw back some productivity by cutting the fat (increasing unemployment, and the rest will have to equal out via currency swings. PPP parity exchange for the Canadian dollar is about $0.80 US, but Canada without high oil prices will be competing with the lower cost Midwest and US south where PPP levels are about 85-90% the US average, couple in a likely increase in relative inflation from a more spend and borrow-prone labour government and I see a Canadian dollar of $0.5XX a very likely possibility.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 10-21-2015, 04:19 PM
 
Location: Toronto
12,581 posts, read 11,170,425 times
Reputation: 3738
Quote:
Originally Posted by ZachF View Post
According to the conference board, Canadian productivity in constant PPP dollars per hour grew from $44.80 per hour in 2000 to $51.17 in 2014, a growth rate of less than 1% per year, while the USA grew from $52.86 to $66.47, equal a little under 2% per year, half the rate of the US.

At the same time, the Canadian dollar surged by about 60%, and the rate of inflation was at least equal to and likely greater than that of the US, eventually leading to a giant gap in unit labor costs, basically doubling vs the US from 2001 to 2011... It's no wonder manufacturing's share of GDP declined in that same period from 18% to under 10% now. (The US only dropped from about 15% to 12% over that same period).

It also doesn't help that Canadian tar sand oil is basically the most expensive type of oil extraction in North America.

Canada is going to have a rough next few years, rougher than the US 2008-2011, and the early 90s/late 80s property bubble bust in Canada. Canada will claw back some productivity by cutting the fat (increasing unemployment, and the rest will have to equal out via currency swings. PPP parity exchange for the Canadian dollar is about $0.80 US, but Canada without high oil prices will be competing with the lower cost Midwest and US south where PPP levels are about 85-90% the US average, couple in a likely increase in relative inflation from a more spend and borrow-prone labour government and I see a Canadian dollar of $0.5XX a very likely possibility.
zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz zzzzz
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.

Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.


Reply
Please update this thread with any new information or opinions. This open thread is still read by thousands of people, so we encourage all additional points of view.

Quick Reply
Message:

Over $104,000 in prizes was already given out to active posters on our forum and additional giveaways are planned!

Go Back   City-Data Forum > World Forums > Canada
Follow City-Data.com founder on our Forum or

All times are GMT -6.

2005-2019, Advameg, Inc. · Please obey Forum Rules · Terms of Use and Privacy Policy · Bug Bounty

City-Data.com - Archive 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35 - Top