Not many new listings (Charleston, Duncan: sales, apartment, mortgage broker)

[moneill]

Don't know how all those arms worked but can't homeowners renegotiate? Now with lower interest rates I know some people around here are renegotiating their mortgages (they don't have arms)

I've had more activity in the last two weeks than I have had in the last three months. Go figure, the holidays, the terrible economy....and people want to go look at houses. I think most of them are relocations. So far nobody is moving up.....

[charlottePA]

Originally Posted by moneill

Don't know how all those arms worked but can't homeowners renegotiate? Now with lower interest rates I know some people around here are renegotiating their mortgages (they don't have arms)

I've had more activity in the last two weeks than I have had in the last three months. Go figure, the holidays, the terrible economy....and people want to go look at houses. I think most of them are relocations. So far nobody is moving up.....

All this talk of empirical evidence....that ain't there. Where are the houses that are going for 30% off?? A foreclosure here or there isn't a trend. USCJoe is the only one that has presented any sort of data approaching a trend--and the trend indicates maybe 10% off list. Certainly not 30%. USCJoe could pull the stats on this, but how many listings have come on the market this fall/winter versus previous years? Are we seeing an approaching tsumani of inventory that will drive down prices?? My hypothesis is no.

I'm also suspect of national reports on the housing industry. Charleston and the Carolinas in general aren't Michigan or some other rust-belt state that has been in slump for a decade.

[OleTomCat]

The actual number is closer to 7% off of previous list, this was up on the news the other day.

The market here has not been hit near as hard as some areas of the country where houses have taken that 30% hit and more.

I would like to see a bigger drop so that we can move up in house from my starter house that I have been in for 15 years.

[USCJoe]

Originally Posted by Flat2MT

Actually, empirical evidence is used.
I know many a realtor who pushed and prodded homebuyers, who had no business buying a home, to take on Interest only or ARM loans because in a couple of years....

1) Your credit score will improve so you can qualify for a fixed rate,
2) You will get a raise at work so you don't have to eat beans and rice forever just to pay your house payment,
3) Your home will increase in value and you can use the equity as a DP for your fixed rate loan and,
4) Your low 'teaser' rate affords you the opportunity to buy all those things you have ever desired on your credit card and you can pay it back with cheaper dollars.

If people choose to live beyond their means and want to keep up with the 'Joneses' go right ahead but don't whine to the govt that you now need the Federal Govt's help to get you out of your situation.

I can see many reasons to question whether the home owners who overextended themselves deserve to be "bailed out" by the federal government. I can also understand that at times the "ends justify the means", so it is possible that those advocating a bailout of some home owners might be right in believing that this is one of the only and/or best options to address the housing crisis.

You mentioned knowing "many a Realtor who pushed and prodded homebuyers, who had no business buying a home, to take on Interest only or ARM loans because in a couple of years...."

I am surprised that many Realtors or even any Realtor would confess to pushing and prodding their client into the purchase of a home that they could not afford. I think many home owners who are encountering financial problems in making mortgage payments may have gone into their home purchase "with eyes closed" rather than necessarily relying on advise by their Realtor.

[stosh]

[quote=USCJoe;6569051]

Originally Posted by Flat2MT

....I find the comment that "most experts that do this for a living are mostly incorrect but this time they have empirical evidence to support their positions" amusing. As the word empirical denotes information gained by means of observation, experience, or experiment, does this mean that these experts do not normally take experience, observation or an experiment into consideration when taking or asserting a position?

Actually, you have it only half correct so if you are going to use Wiki as a reference, you can't pick and choose as you left out the next key sentence......It is a central concept in science and the scientific method is that all evidence must be empirical, or empirically based, that is, dependent on evidence or consequences that are observable by the senses.

Also, did you look at variations of 'empirical' in Wiki?
In statistics, "empirical" quantities are those computed from observed values, as opposed to those derived from theoretical considerations.
In economics, "empirical" generally refers to statistical or econometric analysis of numeric data. Other forms of observation-based hypothesis testing are not considered to be "empirics."

[quote=USCJoe;6569051]

Originally Posted by Flat2MT

I am not aware of anyone who has a requirement to "move up." Maybe a desire, but not necessarily a requirement. It is interesting to note that many, in my opinion, overly pessimistic evaluations of the real estate market in the short as well as long term, are being made by those who are renting and who certainly have a vested interest in the perception of the real estate market in the Charleston area

Does it really change anything if Flat2MT is a homeowner, slum lord, renter, tourist, etc here in Mt Pleasant? The poster may not even live in the area!!! It doesn't matter. We all have a vested interest in what happens here in Mt P. It is just that our vested interests vary. So what?

USCJoe, did you get the chance to view 60 Minutes which is linked here? What part of that story don't you get or don't understand?

Facts are Facts and you can continue to ignore them but I suggest you don't. You'd be doing a disservice to your clients; afterall, it is in your best interest to have an informed client now isn't it?

[stosh]

Originally Posted by charlottePA

All this talk of empirical evidence....that ain't there. Where are the houses that are going for 30% off?? A foreclosure here or there isn't a trend. USCJoe is the only one that has presented any sort of data approaching a trend--and the trend indicates maybe 10% off list. Certainly not 30%. USCJoe could pull the stats on this, but how many listings have come on the market this fall/winter versus previous years? Are we seeing an approaching tsumani of inventory that will drive down prices?? My hypothesis is no.

I'm also suspect of national reports on the housing industry. Charleston and the Carolinas in general aren't Michigan or some other rust-belt state that has been in slump for a decade.

Read today's paper especially the headline where you see the '47% decline'
Also, listings don't mean anything and are nothing but smoke and mirrors.

A hypothesis is an educated guess....the key word being 'educated.'
You may want to sit with USCJoe and watch that 60 Minutes piece together. Then explain to the rest of us your interpretation of what was presented.

Never, ever participate in a gunfight armed only with a knife....

[USCJoe]

[quote=stosh;6573770][quote=USCJoe;6569051]

Actually, you have it only half correct so if you are going to use Wiki as a reference, you can't pick and choose as you left out the next key sentence......It is a central concept in science and the scientific method is that all evidence must be empirical, or empirically based, that is, dependent on evidence or consequences that are observable by the senses.

Also, did you look at variations of 'empirical' in Wiki?
In statistics, "empirical" quantities are those computed from observed values, as opposed to those derived from theoretical considerations.
In economics, "empirical" generally refers to statistical or econometric analysis of numeric data. Other forms of observation-based hypothesis testing are not considered to be "empirics."

Originally Posted by USCJoe

Does it really change anything if Flat2MT is a homeowner, slum lord, renter, tourist, etc here in Mt Pleasant? The poster may not even live in the area!!! It doesn't matter. We all have a vested interest in what happens here in Mt P. It is just that our vested interests vary. So what?

USCJoe, did you get the chance to view 60 Minutes which is linked here? What part of that story don't you get or don't understand?

Facts are Facts and you can continue to ignore them but I suggest you don't. You'd be doing a disservice to your clients; afterall, it is in your best interest to have an informed client now isn't it?

I used the definition from The American Heritage Dictionary of the English Language which I believe is a rather respected source. The next "key sentence" did not have a citation so I have no idea how authoritative that further description would be. I don't think that I ever made reference to Flat2M being a renter. It is true that we all have an interest in what happens in our community. Those interests vary, but in terms of the current and future state of the real estate market I would suspect that someone who has a vested interest in a substantial drop in real estate prices might have a tendency to be a little less objective than a neutral observer.

I have not had an opportunity to listen to 60 minutes. Did they feature and discuss the real estate market in the Charleston area and note the financial profile of past, current and future buyers ? Facts are facts and when discussing real estate activity in the Charleston area I have used verifiable information and statistics for forum members to interpret themselves and to support my observations. I wish those who strongly believe that the Charleston area will experience substantial price drops, ie. 55%+ would provide statistical information pertaining to the Charleston area that would support that belief. I have yet to see any such documented evidence.

It is certainly in any professionals interest to have informed clients and I believe I and most of Realtors on this forum do have informed clients. It is the duty of a Realtor to make all relevant information pertaining to the purchase of a home available to their client and let their client determine how they want to proceed. I think some forum members underestimate the ability of a home buyer to make their own educated decision as whether to rent or purchase a home in todays real estate market.

[moneill]

Well -- there are all kinds of theories of what might happen here there and everywhere. Nobody knows and for every situation you can find stats, professionals, etc. to back it up.

Again I will ask the question. If you have an ARM right now -- why can't you renegotiate. I do remember now having one family who renegotiated last month because of their arm.


..

[USCJoe]

I am certainly not an expert on mortgage financing, but I would think that it would be a "no-brainer", if you qualify, to refinance your ARM into a fixed low interest loan. With interest rates so low, I would not think that many ARMs taken out within the past year or so would adjust much higher than their original or last adjusted rate.

[moneill]

Yeah I don't think the next wave is going to be as devastating. There will be some that may not be able to renegotiate but I would bet most will be able to lock in -- maybe as low as 5 percent. Our mortgage person in the know says we can do it for 4.5......I mean come on -- how can you complain about that!!!!