Not many new listings (Charleston: good credit, how much, attorney)

[USCJoe]

Originally Posted by stosh

Thanks for the clarification.

Love to know what the original list price was in the MLS and it's sales price and compare that % change with the numbers the MLS is pushing. I bet it's a lot more than the 7% we're lead to believe. Same goes with starting the DOM counter over to keep those stats down also.

Just more smoke and mirrors by those who want to keep putting lipstick on this financial pig....it's still a pig people!

There is no doubt that the selling price discount from list price as noted in the mls statistics is greater than 7%, as many of the sold listings were originally listed for more than when they sold. I used the mls statistics to compare different time frames and the relative discounts to sales price over time. The sales to list price and days on market is probably the least accurate data to use when evaluating the probable selling price of a particular home or how "stale" a home may be relative to others on the market. The statistics are of some help in evaluating trends in the real estate market from one period to the next, although limited.

[meks]

downtown Charleston is completely dependant on tourism, Riley has made that a mission for decades

rent has far outpaced income and it's finally coming home to roost

one of the largest problems I've always seen from tourism is that although it employees thousands of people, most are barely over minimum wage workers... so it doesn't help the local economy as much as it helps the few local rich people that own these shops

rarely would you find an employee in downtown that could actually afford to even live downtown

decades of smoke and mirrors are being washed off IMHO

[moneill]

rarely would you find an employee in downtown that could actually afford to even live downtown

This is a fairly typical symptom of a downtown in a city.

[kev4heels]

Hey guys/gals - I just glossed over this thread and came up with a question concerning refinancing...do you bankers/lenders out there think the Mortgage Rates are going to continue to fall? They have been dropping pretty drastically in the last couple of months and I'm looking to refinance, but I want to wait until the right time.

thanks!

[pokrplr]

Current rates are almost 2% less now vs. when I purchased back in Oct 07 so I want to know that answer too

[DJShymansky]

They can't say with any certainty. 4.5% is amazingly low right now for a 30-tear fixed, and FHA is hovering around 5%.

[moneill]

We moved into our new house in July 2003 and we have 4.875 for 30 years. A couple of our nieghbours that bought at the same time also have the same rate.

I am excited to see rates dropping. If we can manage to sell our house it will be nice not to have a bigger rate on our new home.

[moneill]

My suggestion find a good mortgage person. They can help you get all the paperwork ready (apparently it can take a bit longer these days) and can keep an eye on what's happening and maybe give you a heads up when the rates look like they have bottomed out.

[The CMR]

I have not been on good ole City-Data in a while but love to chime in during passionate discussions regarding Charleston real estate.

Since it is Christmas time and I am in a giving mood let me the buyers and sellers out there some ideas.

Sellers
* Most of you need to get a clue and maybe a new agent. Your homes are priced too high.
* I estimate 8 out of 10 homes in Charleston are overpriced for this current market.
* Price them right because you may have about a 3-4 month window of gov't sponsored low rates. Hopefully "Big Mama" gives you more time.
* If you miss this window you are probably dead meat. If our fiat $ currency collapses sooner rather than later and Treasuries are sold off kiss low rates bye bye.
* Try selling your home in 7%+ or double digit rate environment with tight credit. Good luck.
* You will then be forced to really make massive price adjustments to lure buyers.
* If I were you I would do everything in my power to sell my home during the next couple of months while rates are low.

Buyers
* Look to make offers at what prices were around 2000-2001 as a guide. 2005-06 was the top of the market. I use these years because this is when real estate started making ridiculous gains that put it in bubble territory. Look at any chart of real estate prices and the graph goes straight up starting in this time period.
* These are artificial gains created by our Ponzi Economy and Creative Financing Mortgage Industry that WILL revert back to the mean. It happens in the stock market and it WILL/IS happen in real estate.
* Most of the gains in homes everywhere are false gains due to easy credit and inflation.
* Look at PITI + Regime (if applicable) vs. Rent to determine if the home is priced correctly. Many of the homes currently listed are also for rent at the same time so you can compare. If they are not for rent determine what the rent would be and compare.
* Stick to your game plan and do not get rushed into a bad deal. Patience is a virtue and renting is not a bad scenario if you can not find your dream home priced correctly in this disillusional market.
* It will take years to fix the housing market because it took years to create the mess we are in now.

The reason the inventory is not rising is that I believe many of the listings are expiring and not being placed back on the market. I will post something in a few days to prove it. Unfortunately, Months Inventory is rising because sales were horendous last month. The next few months while rates are LOW will be a crucial test for real estate markets everywhere to determine how bad it really is right now.

There are many areas in Charleston experiencing double digit losses. The reason the losses are not worse is because most of the homes selling are on the lower tier of the market. You have to be real careful when you look at the MLS Stats. The high end >$600k is not really selling and this is where the higher discounts apply. It is tougher to sell these homes because they are typically Jumbo Loans which are tougher to get these days.

Currently (According to the MLS) as of Nov 08 there is 80 months worth of Single Family Residential homes in the TriCounty Region that are listed >$600k. That is 6.6 yrs worth of inventory mainly because November was such a poor month for sales. Since last year we have already seen approx a 15% decline in this segment of the market for the TriCounty. If I segmented the market into specific areas I could easily demonstrate 25% declines. It depends on where you look based on more specific variables. We all get caught up in the macro stats a bit too much sometimes. What you need to worry about are the stats that apply to the home you are buying/selling and forget about the rest of the noise.

It will be interesting to watch these trends in a weakening economic environment unless you really believe Obama is going to wave his magic wand and then part the red sea of debt once he enters office with his New New Deal.

God bless America and Happy Holidays.

[USCJoe]

Originally Posted by The CMR

I have not been on good ole City-Data in a while but love to chime in during passionate discussions regarding Charleston real estate.

Since it is Christmas time and I am in a giving mood let me the buyers and sellers out there some ideas.

Sellers
* Most of you need to get a clue and maybe a new agent. Your homes are priced too high.
* I estimate 8 out of 10 homes in Charleston are overpriced for this current market.
* Price them right because you may have about a 3-4 month window of gov't sponsored low rates. Hopefully "Big Mama" gives you more time.
* If you miss this window you are probably dead meat. If our fiat $ currency collapses sooner rather than later and Treasuries are sold off kiss low rates bye bye.
* Try selling your home in 7%+ or double digit rate environment with tight credit. Good luck.
* You will then be forced to really make massive price adjustments to lure buyers.
* If I were you I would do everything in my power to sell my home during the next couple of months while rates are low.

Buyers
* Look to make offers at what prices were around 2000-2001 as a guide. 2005-06 was the top of the market. I use these years because this is when real estate started making ridiculous gains that put it in bubble territory. Look at any chart of real estate prices and the graph goes straight up starting in this time period.
* These are artificial gains created by our Ponzi Economy and Creative Financing Mortgage Industry that WILL revert back to the mean. It happens in the stock market and it WILL/IS happen in real estate.
* Most of the gains in homes everywhere are false gains due to easy credit and inflation.
* Look at PITI + Regime (if applicable) vs. Rent to determine if the home is priced correctly. Many of the homes currently listed are also for rent at the same time so you can compare. If they are not for rent determine what the rent would be and compare.
* Stick to your game plan and do not get rushed into a bad deal. Patience is a virtue and renting is not a bad scenario if you can not find your dream home priced correctly in this disillusional market.
* It will take years to fix the housing market because it took years to create the mess we are in now.

The reason the inventory is not rising is that I believe many of the listings are expiring and not being placed back on the market. I will post something in a few days to prove it. Unfortunately, Months Inventory is rising because sales were horendous last month. The next few months while rates are LOW will be a crucial test for real estate markets everywhere to determine how bad it really is right now.

There are many areas in Charleston experiencing double digit losses. The reason the losses are not worse is because most of the homes selling are on the lower tier of the market. You have to be real careful when you look at the MLS Stats. The high end >$600k is not really selling and this is where the higher discounts apply. It is tougher to sell these homes because they are typically Jumbo Loans which are tougher to get these days.

Currently (According to the MLS) as of Nov 08 there is 80 months worth of Single Family Residential homes in the TriCounty Region that are listed >$600k. That is 6.6 yrs worth of inventory mainly because November was such a poor month for sales. Since last year we have already seen approx a 15% decline in this segment of the market for the TriCounty. If I segmented the market into specific areas I could easily demonstrate 25% declines. It depends on where you look based on more specific variables. We all get caught up in the macro stats a bit too much sometimes. What you need to worry about are the stats that apply to the home you are buying/selling and forget about the rest of the noise.

It will be interesting to watch these trends in a weakening economic environment unless you really believe Obama is going to wave his magic wand and then part the red sea of debt once he enters office with his New New Deal.

God bless America and Happy Holidays.

You make a number of good points in your post, particularly that "we all get caught up in the macro stats a bit too much sometimes. What you need to worry about are the stats that apply to the home you are buying/selling and forget about the rest of the noise." I do differ with you on two major points, one that "Most of you(sellers) need to get a clue and maybe a new agent." and the other "Look to make offers at what prices were around 2000-2001 as a guide."

You seem to infer that the majority of home sellers might want to consider getting a new agent. Having been in the real estate business for 14 years, I have found that often times a seller is insistent that their agent list their home for a price which is difficult to justify through recent home sales and the real estate market at the time. Many home owners set their list price based upon their motivation and time frame in which they want their home to sell. Others have an unrealistic expectation of the value of their home based upon their emotional attachment to it and the cosmetic improvements they have made. An experienced and realistic Realtor will point out the "comps" and added value to the home that the improvements warrant and provide a recommended price range consistent with the sellers motivation and related factors. You seem to place the potential blame for a home not selling on the listing Realtor, rather than the home owner. In most instances I think that such blame is misplaced.

I certainly differ from you in the advise that a buyer should "look to make an offer at what prices were around 2000-2001.+ Using the Belle Hall Plantation subdivision in Mt. Pleasant as an example, we find that in 2000, the average selling price for a home under $600,000 was $102 a foot. In 2001 it was $101 a foot.The average price per square foot of a home that sold in Belle Hall Plantation under $600,000 this year has been $168. The average current home on the market at this time in the under $600,000 range is $186 a foot. I did not include home prices in Belle Hall Plantation above $600,000, as there were really no home sales in that price range in the 2000-2001 time frame and the homes over $600,000 on the market in Belle Hall are a higher quality than the homes sold in 2000-2001. If a buyer were to follow your advise in making an offer on a home, they would be offering about $67 a square foot less than what comparable homes have sold for in the neighborhood this year and about $85 less than the current list prices. I question how much success that a potential buyer will have with such offers.