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In January, we have had a wind chill factor as low as the teens during the day....even colder near the water. Now that's not saying that it can't also be in the 50's or 60's during the day. Several times I have had relatives from up north come visit in January and Feb. and tell me that it felt colder here than in New England because of the dampness in the air and the winds. For your toddler, I would definitely bring a winter jacket with hood and mittens or gloves. Shorts may be a bit extreme, but jeans and sweaters would be more in order.
We were down on Folly for a weekend in Feb. last year and the winds were 32 mph, wind chill factor was 27* during the day, just to give you an idea.
Hey Flatlander - Folly is a great place for the winter months...it will get a little cold at night but you will gets some 60s/70s weather if things repeat past year. I am a Realtor on James Island and do a lot of work at Folly. There are lots of great things to do such as the kids playground and the Pier. For more kids stuff, you can go five minutes down the road to James Island county park.