UNsold home inventory info -Charleston (sales, 2009, foreclosure)

[Flat2MT]

Originally Posted by USCJoe

I assume that you are generalizing when you make the comment that my buyers obtained an FHA with little money down and that they will probably default on the loan. The buyers I referred to obtained a conventional loan at a great mortgage rate and the appraisal of the home was a good bit above the contract price. My buyers, a commodities trader and paralegal purchased a home well within their ability to make monthly mortgage payments. They have no intent to sell in the near term and will not be harmed financially if the home value remains the same or even decreases to some degree. It would be more useful to forum members if posters did not use speculation to support their opinions and positions/arguments.

You mention that the "shadow inventory" does not show up in the mls. This is true, but you seem to infer, unless I am wrong, that the inventory of homes in the Charleston area held by the banks has increased year over year. It would be useful if you could post some figures and the source of your stats to support this assertion.

You mentioned that many homes have been pulled off the market to rent which is reflected in the decrease in inventory from year to year. I do not know whether rentals have increased year over year, but I suspect that neither do you. Unless these renters intend to sleep on the beach, they will need to purchase or rent a home in the future which put downward pressure on sales inventory There are certainly many undeveloped lots available on which to build. However, until the market and economy does turn around, I don't know what relevance that has in the short term on the inventory of unsold homes.I would think that the inventory will need to decline relatively substantially before builders start a large volume of new construction to address any future demand.

You mentioned that you have read many of my posts which leads you to believe that I am in some type of denial. In order to support this contention, would you most kindly identify the posts where my comments have indicated a denial of the current state of the real estate market and/or the potential future of the real estate market in the Charleston area. It would also be interesting if you could elaborate upon damage the real estate industry has done to create the "real estate bubble."

I look forward to an objective and fact supported response to my comments.

Charleston County does not publish its Master In Equity auction results unlike Beaufort County so I am not sure where one would begin to mine this data.

I've attended a couple of Charleston County MIE auctions over the past couple of months and each time the plaintiff (Bank et al) always ends up with a significant majority of the homes across all price ranges. For example, last Tuesday, October 6, from my count, 43 homes were actually auctioned off and only 4 (lower end) were won by someone other than the plaintiff.

It will take many months for most of the higher end homes to find their way back into the inventory supply....and if and when they do, they are the exception rather than the rule.

Thanks to TARP, the Banks have no incentive to get rid of these 'white elephants'....

Now on the lower end, those homes are tossed back into the inventory stream as quickly as possible....

[GordonGekkoSC]

If the buyers had good jobs why did they need $8k in assistance to buy a home? The answer is they did not but the realtors use this as the next gimmick to get people to buy a home, courtesy of the US taxpayer. The appraisal makes no difference because it just talks about the price on the date the home was inspected. Your buyers are not very bright if they bought a home could go down in value and are ok with that scenario.

I can not post a chart of "shadow" inventory because it is internal with each bank. A peak of it is the Masters Equity list from each county. If you want to see these distressed loans then go to the FDIC website pick any bank and look at non accrual assets in their call reports.

How many wanna be sellers of homes in Charleston are moving and becoming landlords because they can not sell their home quick enough or they are upside down because the mortgage is worth more than what a buyer will actually pay? Tons of people fall in this category, which is why the mls inventory numbers are difficult to nail down.

You want a chart for every explanation but many of these scenarios can not be spit out in charts such as what you put out from the mls or like videos you make in Mt. Pleasant with a stupid song playing in the background. This is fragmented data which makes purchasing a home difficult which is why the default rate remains high because many Realtors are not paying attention to the market.

What you do not seem to understand is the concept of "shadow inventory" or what happens when banks go under. Google Corus Bank in FL and look at the impact this failed bank has on the real estate market. When a bank goes under their delinquent residential and commercial assets will be sold off by the FDIC for 25-50 cents on the dollar. What do you think happens to real estate values of comparable homes when this occurs? Duuuuuh, they go down.

Currently only 90 or so banks have failed but as the doo doo continues to hit the fan and banks run out of cash you could see over 1000 banks fail in the next year or two which will continue to put negative pressure on real estate values.

Go read about how the real estate market in Japan has fared over the past 20 years during a deflationary economic environment. Do you know what Deflation means? Do you think buying real estate while deflation is occuring is a good investment?

You can learn a great deal from history if you wake up and pay attention to what is happening in the world.

Originally Posted by USCJoe

I assume that you are generalizing when you make the comment that my buyers obtained an FHA with little money down and that they will probably default on the loan. The buyers I referred to obtained a conventional loan at a great mortgage rate and the appraisal of the home was a good bit above the contract price. My buyers, a commodities trader and paralegal purchased a home well within their ability to make monthly mortgage payments. They have no intent to sell in the near term and will not be harmed financially if the home value remains the same or even decreases to some degree. It would be more useful to forum members if posters did not use speculation to support their opinions and positions/arguments.

You mention that the "shadow inventory" does not show up in the mls. This is true, but you seem to infer, unless I am wrong, that the inventory of homes in the Charleston area held by the banks has increased year over year. It would be useful if you could post some figures and the source of your stats to support this assertion.

You mentioned that many homes have been pulled off the market to rent which is reflected in the decrease in inventory from year to year. I do not know whether rentals have increased year over year, but I suspect that neither do you. Unless these renters intend to sleep on the beach, they will need to purchase or rent a home in the future which put downward pressure on sales inventory There are certainly many undeveloped lots available on which to build. However, until the market and economy does turn around, I don't know what relevance that has in the short term on the inventory of unsold homes.I would think that the inventory will need to decline relatively substantially before builders start a large volume of new construction to address any future demand.

You mentioned that you have read many of my posts which leads you to believe that I am in some type of denial. In order to support this contention, would you most kindly identify the posts where my comments have indicated a denial of the current state of the real estate market and/or the potential future of the real estate market in the Charleston area. It would also be interesting if you could elaborate upon damage the real estate industry has done to create the "real estate bubble."

I look forward to an objective and fact supported response to my comments.

[USCJoe]

If a buyer qualifies for the credit are you suggesting that they forgo the credit or that in representing a client I not mention the availability of the credit? With the reasoning you are using I assume you would question why anyone would take a tax deduction on their tax return if they qualified to do so under the tax code. I see no comment on my part that my clients are okay with the knowledge that the value of their home could decrease in the coming months, just that if it does so they will not be in financial jeopardy. This is also generally the case when a prudent investor purchases a stock that could drop in value the same day they purchase it. They are aware of the risks and choose to go forward with the decision to purchase an asset. Would you classify every investor who purchases a stock knowing it could decrease in value over time, "not very bright?"

I am not asking that you present a chart to support your arguments, only that you present some figures justifying or supporting your remarks or opinions rather than making general assertions.

There are certainly many home owners who have rented their homes because of their inability to sell them. I am not questioning this. However, MLS inventory numbers are not difficult to nail down. "They are what they are."

Originally Posted by GordonGekkoSC

If the buyers had good jobs why did they need $8k in assistance to buy a home? The answer is they did not but the realtors use this as the next gimmick to get people to buy a home, courtesy of the US taxpayer. The appraisal makes no difference because it just talks about the price on the date the home was inspected. Your buyers are not very bright if they bought a home could go down in value and are ok with that scenario.

I can not post a chart of "shadow" inventory because it is internal with each bank. A peak of it is the Masters Equity list from each county. If you want to see these distressed loans then go to the FDIC website pick any bank and look at non accrual assets in their call reports.

How many wanna be sellers of homes in Charleston are moving and becoming landlords because they can not sell their home quick enough or they are upside down because the mortgage is worth more than what a buyer will actually pay? Tons of people fall in this category, which is why the mls inventory numbers are difficult to nail down.

I am wondering what relevance your comment about my videos and the background music has to with the issue under discussion. If you are able to enlighten me and other forum members that would be appreciated and useful.

You seem to have overlooked referencing where I appear to be in denial of the current economic and housing market that you asserted in your last post.

You want a chart for every explanation but many of these scenarios can not be spit out in charts such as what you put out from the mls or like videos you make in Mt. Pleasant with a stupid song playing in the background. This is fragmented data which makes purchasing a home difficult which is why the default rate remains high because many Realtors are not paying attention to the market.

What you do not seem to understand is the concept of "shadow inventory" or what happens when banks go under. Google Corus Bank in FL and look at the impact this failed bank has on the real estate market. When a bank goes under their delinquent residential and commercial assets will be sold off by the FDIC for 25-50 cents on the dollar. What do you think happens to real estate values of comparable homes when this occurs? Duuuuuh, they go down.

Currently only 90 or so banks have failed but as the doo doo continues to hit the fan and banks run out of cash you could see over 1000 banks fail in the next year or two which will continue to put negative pressure on real estate values.

Go read about how the real estate market in Japan has fared over the past 20 years during a deflationary economic environment. Do you know what Deflation means? Do you think buying real estate while deflation is occuring is a good investment?

You can learn a great deal from history if you wake up and pay attention to what is happening in the world.

[the~x~factor]

Originally Posted by GordonGekkoSC

You want a chart for every explanation but many of these scenarios can not be spit out in charts such as what you put out from the mls or like videos you make in Mt. Pleasant with a stupid song playing in the background.

Not all the video's are stupid, I was actually in one which I did stress my displeasure.

The video's are all "cherry" picked BTW, just highlighting the "select" areas.

Funny I've never seen a "foreclosure" sign in these hand picked video's but yet my Family & I see PLENTY driving the area....Hmmmm...

[USCJoe]

I find your comment surprising as I have not seen any foreclosure signs in driving through neighborhoods, not just the neighborhoods and streets I have videotaped.I am unsure as to where you and your family have seen "plenty driving the area." There are many short sale homes on the market which are different than foreclosures and even those do not have "foreclosure" signs in the front yard. Occasionally I have seen a sign in the window of a HUD or similar repossession or notice of bank owned property, but these certainly would not show up on in any video I were to take driving through a neighborhood. The areas I have video taped in Mt. Pleasant are those attractions and communities that I feel would be of interest to out of town visitors and that attract local residents. I suspect that I could video tape trash collection areas, a trailer park or two and a few "low income" areas of the town, but don't know whether the average out of town visitor would find these areas worth visiting during their short stay in Charleston. If the video taping of non "cherry picked" areas would be helpful to those considering relocating to the Charleston area maybe x-factor could identify such areas and video tape and post them for forum members.

Originally Posted by the~x~factor

Not all the video's are stupid, I was actually in one which I did stress my displeasure.

The video's are all "cherry" picked BTW, just highlighting the "select" areas.

Funny I've never seen a "foreclosure" sign in these hand picked video's but yet my Family & I see PLENTY driving the area....Hmmmm...

[pokrplr]

Just curious Joe, what's the diff between a foreclosure and a HUD home? Only reason i ask is, the very 1st home we bought 15yrs ago was a HUD home and got a tremendous deal on it. We were able to sell it a few yrs later for double the purchase price thus helping us to move up to we are today...

[USCJoe]

A HUD home is a home that has been repossessed by HUD when a home buyer defaults on an FHA loan. The government pays off the lender and HUD takes possession of the home to be auctioned off down the road. HUD generally will post a notice in the window of the home that has been foreclosed on. In my many years of selling homes in the Charleston area, particularly in Mt. Pleasant I have noticed only a handful of posted foreclosure notices in Mt. Pleasant.

Originally Posted by pokrplr

Just curious Joe, what's the diff between a foreclosure and a HUD home? Only reason i ask is, the very 1st home we bought 15yrs ago was a HUD home and got a tremendous deal on it. We were able to sell it a few yrs later for double the purchase price thus helping us to move up to we are today...

[pokrplr]

Originally Posted by USCJoe

A HUD home is a home that has been repossessed by HUD when a home buyer defaults on an FHA loan. The government pays off the lender and HUD takes possession of the home to be auctioned off down the road. HUD generally will post a notice in the window of the home that has been foreclosed on. In my many years of selling homes in the Charleston area, particularly in Mt. Pleasant I have noticed only a handful of posted foreclosure notices in Mt. Pleasant.

Thanks!!

In a nut-shell it kinda seems like the same thing then?? ... Anyway, I'm glad we stumbled across one. 5 day auction, 0 bids....Well, 1 bid if you count ours. We stole that house

[MichaelNYC]

Hi Joe,

Just had to comment... after reading this comment to your video.

You provide a great insight to various areas in Mt Pleasant and as simple as that.. you show various areas and not concentrating on anything specific.. but an overall view... for people to watch and get a view/feel of MP. No way does it push nor promote MP or yourself.. it simply shows the area. Not hiding anything... not highlighting anything... just sit back and enjoy the video please

Had to comment Joe on you and your video's behalf

*****************

Originally Posted by the~x~factor
Not all the video's are stupid, I was actually in one which I did stress my displeasure.

The video's are all "cherry" picked BTW, just highlighting the "select" areas.

Funny I've never seen a "foreclosure" sign in these hand picked video's but yet my Family & I see PLENTY driving the area....Hmmmm...

Originally Posted by USCJoe

I find your comment surprising as I have not seen any foreclosure signs in driving through neighborhoods, not just the neighborhoods and streets I have videotaped.I am unsure as to where you and your family have seen "plenty driving the area." There are many short sale homes on the market which are different than foreclosures and even those do not have "foreclosure" signs in the front yard. Occasionally I have seen a sign in the window of a HUD or similar repossession or notice of bank owned property, but these certainly would not show up on in any video I were to take driving through a neighborhood. The areas I have video taped in Mt. Pleasant are those attractions and communities that I feel would be of interest to out of town visitors and that attract local residents. I suspect that I could video tape trash collection areas, a trailer park or two and a few "low income" areas of the town, but don't know whether the average out of town visitor would find these areas worth visiting during their short stay in Charleston. If the video taping of non "cherry picked" areas would be helpful to those considering relocating to the Charleston area maybe x-factor could identify such areas and video tape and post them for forum members.

[USCJoe]

I appreciate the comments and have a difficult time understanding how someone can objectively find fault with them, as long as they provide insight into the Charleston area and some of it's many attractions which may be unknown and of interest to visitors to the area. As you know, it is difficult and time consuming for a non resident who has not visited the Charleston area, to get a good feel for what the tri-county has to offer without extensive research and driving. I feel that information of any type is useful to anyone considering relocating or just visiting the area. As a Realtor, the more information my clients have the higher the liklyhood that they will be satisfided in their decision to choose a particular area in which to live whether they have only a week-end to househunt or decide to rent for a year to "check out the area." The videos, photos and information I and other Realtors on this forum post result in a win-win situation for all concerned.

Originally Posted by MichaelNYC

Hi Joe,

Just had to comment... after reading this comment to your video.

You provide a great insight to various areas in Mt Pleasant and as simple as that.. you show various areas and not concentrating on anything specific.. but an overall view... for people to watch and get a view/feel of MP. No way does it push nor promote MP or yourself.. it simply shows the area. Not hiding anything... not highlighting anything... just sit back and enjoy the video please

Had to comment Joe on you and your video's behalf

*****************

Originally Posted by the~x~factor
Not all the video's are stupid, I was actually in one which I did stress my displeasure.

The video's are all "cherry" picked BTW, just highlighting the "select" areas.

Funny I've never seen a "foreclosure" sign in these hand picked video's but yet my Family & I see PLENTY driving the area....Hmmmm...