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Old 11-04-2010, 03:50 PM
 
Location: Union County
5,783 posts, read 8,416,909 times
Reputation: 4818

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Foreclosure shadow inventory will take more than 40 months to clear: Fitch HousingWire

Quote:
The shadow inventory of delinquent loans, foreclosures, and REOs stands at 7 million homes, which would take the market more than 40 months to clear, more than three years, according to Fitch Ratings.
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Old 11-05-2010, 01:28 PM
 
Location: Albuquerque
5,549 posts, read 14,195,167 times
Reputation: 2700
Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeyKid
... shadow-inventory-of-foreclosures
The definition of "shadow inventory" - according to the article:

" delinquent loans, foreclosures, and REOs "

My definition includes all the houses being rented out "until market conditions improve."

Know anyone doing that? I know lots ( of people in denial ) like that.

I know some that can barely hold on for a little while longer, some can hold
out for a while longer, some that can hold out indefinitely, but probably won't.

I would wager that my definition is more than 2x the definition of the article's.
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Old 11-05-2010, 05:40 PM
 
Location: Union County, NC
2,115 posts, read 6,442,714 times
Reputation: 1130
I'm an amateur at this and I'm trying to follow everyone's logic. I've only purchased two homes in my life - the one I live in (Union County) and an investment property (Charlotte) I closed on less than a month ago.

The one I live in was purchased in 2006. I've contemplated putting it on the market so that we might get into a home we were previously priced out of. However, I have doubts about how easy it would be to sale the home we're currently in.

Someone advised that we put the house up for sale and rent at the same time. I'm not sure I see the wisdom in doing so. Having two mortgages doesn't thrill me.

But, I figured the earliest I'd be prepared to make a move would be Spring just because I didn't want the hassle of having a market on the house during the holidays. But, I guess that by Spring the forecast is for an oversaturated market? Is that what I'm reading?
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Old 11-05-2010, 08:40 PM
 
171 posts, read 277,494 times
Reputation: 95
The logic is this. No jobs, no house sales. We are already at beyond 2 years supply of homes and the figure rises. In 24 states where their is judicial review, the Banksters have stopped their foreclosures and repossessions because even they are afraid that lying in court will get them tossed in jail. NC is one such state. So these homes in addition to the 2 year supply are piling up as part of inventory that nobody can pay for.

In addition what sales there are, are only possible because the Federal Reserve is almost paying people to take a mortgage now. (and this long term puts everyone's savings/retirement/childrens future at great risk) When that finally collapses, housing will take a nose dive that will be unlike anything seen in living memory.

My advice to you is if you want to sell a place, put it on the market and price it to move. The longer you wait the less you get for it. If you want to buy another place, make sure it is a place that you will want to live for a long time. Otherwise, rent.
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Old 11-05-2010, 08:53 PM
 
Location: Huntersville
1,852 posts, read 4,668,263 times
Reputation: 525
It's interesting how people say "price it to move" like its that easy. You may be over priced, you may be priced right. You may not even want or be able to lower your price. The market sucks right now, even it's priced "right". There aren't enough buyers period for the inventory. And with mortgages being tough to get, thats not improving any time soon. I don't what you are selling you house for, but look at it this way. If you have you house listed at $250,000, and people aren't looking that means you may be $25K+ over. Because people, would still look at it, just could offer lower. I am not an expert, just providing another opinion. Your realtor can probably provide the right advice, and you are lucky you don't have to sell.

As for keeping it on the market, I would.. it doesn't hurt at this point. And as the saying goes. It only takes one!

Good luck..
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Old 11-05-2010, 08:56 PM
 
Location: Union County, NC
2,115 posts, read 6,442,714 times
Reputation: 1130
When did NC become a judicial review state? And I am aware that there was a moratorium on foreclosures in judicial review states and some banks chose to extend that to other states but I thought, for the most part, that was lifted?

But I otherwise understand your logic. Thank you sincerely for the reply.
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Old 11-05-2010, 09:09 PM
 
171 posts, read 277,494 times
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In NC the court has always been involved in foreclosures The one being foreclosed upon ultimately has the right to have the case presented to a judge. This is what is meant by judicial review.

Essentially the Banksters have been showing up to court with documents claiming ownership of the first mortgage which wasn't the case. They may have ownership but the point was the document they were presenting did not establish this. This entire debacle was exposed when JPM was accused of fraud in foreclosure case in Florida 6 or 7 weeks ago. More recently, they got their bought and paid for congress to attempt to pass a law that would have remove the legal reprecussions of committing fraud in court. Amazingly the US Senate passed this unanimously without debate and the only thing that stopped it was that Obama got cold feet before the election and vetoed it.

This is a digression, they will find a way, probably when no one is looking, to resume the foreclosures here. There is too much money at stake for too many people with some power.
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Old 11-05-2010, 09:10 PM
 
171 posts, read 277,494 times
Reputation: 95
Quote:
Originally Posted by Whytewulf View Post
It's interesting how people say "price it to move" like its that easy. ....
Nobody said it was easy. If it was this conversation would not be taking place. None the less regardless of what the person owes on the place, it is irrelevant to selling the home.
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Old 11-05-2010, 10:29 PM
 
123 posts, read 245,827 times
Reputation: 84
So..if you are me, moving from within NC near Raleigh some time between now and June...great credit, money to put down, in a rental now having sold my home here in Sept....do you buy now if you can, wait until the Spring, or avoid it for now?

PROS NOW: Low interest rates, low prices, lots of choices
CONS: ??

What does anyone think in this market is a fair offer (% off asking price) on a home in "jeopardy"...realistically?

Also, does anyone know if a price listed on a short sale is negotiable or not? How about bank owned pricing?

Thanks and don't slay me...brainstorming here!
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Old 11-06-2010, 04:56 AM
 
171 posts, read 277,494 times
Reputation: 95
On your first question, house prices may fall another 50% but it depends upon your price range. The higher you go, the farther the lead weight has to go before it hits the ground.

Interest rates are not going to go anywhere. The financial voodoo economics being played by the Federal Reserve in cahoots with the US Treasury and the TBTF banks are forcing these rates to be irresponsibly low. If they raised them to where they would typically be, the housing market simply collapses along with these banks. Not going to happen as long as they can get away with it. Your best bet is to watch gold price vs dollar. If you see gold falling over a long period, this is your signal. The reason for this is too complicated for this topic.

If you believe what I just said, then % off on your offer should be extremely aggressive. If you get a real estate agent who balks at your offer, tells you that you will insult the buyers, then tell the agent that he/she is insulting you, fire them, and get another. It's business, not a social acceptance test. You will never see these people again once you move in.

Sales are alway negotiable even on bank owned property. As always, your ability to negotiate depends upon your ability to not fall in love with a house. i.e. you will walk away if a deal on your terms can't be meant.
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