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Old 03-06-2011, 06:21 PM
 
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I don't think Charlotte will keep growing so it may never happen. The workforce has been officially dropping since 2008. It's been decreased by over 35,000 jobs in the last 2 years. Population change always follows workforce size.
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Old 03-06-2011, 06:35 PM
 
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Originally Posted by mike7586 View Post
I think you're seriously overestimating the growth rate. In the last 10 years, it looks like the Charlotte metro added around 400-500,000 people. Atlanta and Dallas added over 1 million people in the last 10 years. Also, in the 1970's Atlanta and Dallas metros were larger than present day Charlotte metro. If we even see the type of growth we did in the last 20 years in the future, Charlotte is more likely to have around 3-3.5 million people, not 5+ million. It's going to take a lot longer for that to happen. Regardless, the growth rate in Charlotte is nothing to scoff at - it's still growing fast, just not as fast as you think.
Good post. This is exactly what I was trying to tell him/her.

There is no doubt that Charlotte is growing at a good clip, but some people act like millions of people can move to an area in such a short amount of time.
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Old 03-06-2011, 06:41 PM
 
Location: The place where the road & the sky collide
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Originally Posted by bgNCATL View Post
Good post. This is exactly what I was trying to tell him/her.

There is no doubt that Charlotte is growing at a good clip, but some people act like millions of people can move to an area in such a short amount of time.
There are 2 or 3 counties which will probably be in the MSA by 2020. you are assuming that no additional counties will be added. I'm saying that with a CSA of ~2.5 million, with some of those counties added, growth could be moderate & still come to ~3 million. Is that more clear?
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Old 03-06-2011, 07:22 PM
 
Location: Atlanta
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Originally Posted by southbound_295 View Post
I may be right or may be wrong, but here's the census results for the NC counties. Since 2 of the counties in the MSA are in SC, we're waiting patiently to do the full count. 2010 Census Data - 2010 Census Iredell will probably be the next county into the MSA, so you may want to look at that county's figures too before you discount my assertation that the MSA will reach 3 million in less than 20 years. Happy calculating.

(& remember, the closest city to Charlotte with a population of over a million is Philadelphia, not Atlanta.)
That's because Charlotte has annexed most of Mecklenburg County. For example, Ballantyne is in Charlotte city limits. There are still farms in Charlotte city limits. Atlanta has over 500,000 in a much smaller area and is more densely populated. If Atlanta annexed the entire area inside 285 it would have at least 1 million people.

Even with counties such as Iredell, which now only has 158,000 people, still won't be enough to bring Charlotte metro to 5+ million in 20 years. If you look at population projects for 2030, Metro Charlotte is estimated to have around 3-3.5 million people. As an example, Atlanta has 40 years on Charlotte (as Metro Atlanta was the same size as Metro Charlotte in the 1970's) and has historically grown much faster than Charlotte. I think it's safe to say it'll take 30-40 years before Metro Charlotte reaches 5+ million people.

I'm not trying to talk down about Charlotte (I'm originally from there) as the growth has been pretty significant, I'm just being realistic.
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Old 03-06-2011, 07:54 PM
 
Location: The place where the road & the sky collide
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Originally Posted by mike7586 View Post
That's because Charlotte has annexed most of Mecklenburg County. For example, Ballantyne is in Charlotte city limits. There are still farms in Charlotte city limits. Atlanta has over 500,000 in a much smaller area and is more densely populated. If Atlanta annexed the entire area inside 285 it would have at least 1 million people.

Even with counties such as Iredell, which now only has 158,000 people, still won't be enough to bring Charlotte metro to 5+ million in 20 years. If you look at population projects for 2030, Metro Charlotte is estimated to have around 3-3.5 million people. As an example, Atlanta has 40 years on Charlotte (as Metro Atlanta was the same size as Metro Charlotte in the 1970's) and has historically grown much faster than Charlotte. I think it's safe to say it'll take 30-40 years before Metro Charlotte reaches 5+ million people.

I'm not trying to talk down about Charlotte (I'm originally from there) as the growth has been pretty significant, I'm just being realistic.
I have no clue about 20 years out, but I do think that ~3 million is feasible in 10 years, w/the addition of more of the NC counties in the CSA, if the job thing picks up again.

I added the figures for the NC counties in the MSA. 1,505,017. The NC counties of the CSA total 2,258,314. Since the MSA & CSA overlap state lines, that's as good as it gets for now. However, just so you understand, I'm not saying this to be competitive, but based on what is already in the CSA, if several counties are added to the MSA, ~3 million is not that much of a stretch. It just depends on which counties get added.
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Old 03-06-2011, 08:01 PM
 
Location: Charlotte, NC (in my mind)
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Originally Posted by yantosh22 View Post
I don't think Charlotte will keep growing so it may never happen. The workforce has been officially dropping since 2008. It's been decreased by over 35,000 jobs in the last 2 years. Population change always follows workforce size.
Agreed. I think Charlotte will be smaller in the 2020 census than in 2010 with the way the economy is looking unless things somehow magically get better.
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Old 03-06-2011, 08:21 PM
 
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Originally Posted by bchris02 View Post
Agreed. I think Charlotte will be smaller in the 2020 census than in 2010 with the way the economy is looking unless things somehow magically get better.
I doubt that quite a bit, given that nearly the entire country is in a similar economic situation. I'm from Detroit, and Detroit was shrinking when I left. Charlotte may have slowed down from its breakneck speed, but it is not shrinking.
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Old 03-06-2011, 08:26 PM
 
Location: Charlotte, NC (in my mind)
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Originally Posted by cls4lions View Post
I doubt that quite a bit, given that nearly the entire country is in a similar economic situation. I'm from Detroit, and Detroit was shrinking when I left. Charlotte may have slowed down from its breakneck speed, but it is not shrinking.
Who knows. Few can imagine the type of economic hardship we are about to go through. By 2020 we will have seen economic catastrophe that makes Americans look back at the Great Depression longingly. We will have a very different country by then so its really impossible to predict.
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Old 03-07-2011, 07:12 AM
 
Location: Crown Town
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bchris02 View Post
Who knows. Few can imagine the type of economic hardship we are about to go through. By 2020 we will have seen economic catastrophe that makes Americans look back at the Great Depression longingly. We will have a very different country by then so its really impossible to predict.
But Charlotte grew during the current downturn. If you go back and read through the old pages in this forum, you’ll find where several posters predicted Charlotte would already be Detroit by now. They said everybody was leaving and soon the city would shut down, LOL. That didn’t happen and the economy is already starting the turn. If it turns for the worse again, why should we expect the city not to grow, given it still grew in the recent economic downturn? If you look at all cities in the country, pretty much what you've seen the past couple of decades, is what you’ll get in our lifetimes. Detroit has been spiraling down for years now, and high growth cities like Atlanta and Dallas, and yes even Charlotte, have been booming for years. You shouldn’t expect to see any cataclysmic changes in the opposite direction within the next ten years.
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Old 03-07-2011, 09:08 AM
 
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Charlotte’s population is now where Atlanta was in the 70s.

It’s growth rate is likely to follow Atlanta and Dallas etc, but the city really, really needs to make the hard decisions now to avoid becoming the mess of that Atlanta/Dallas/Houston/Phoenix are. It should just focus on smart growth, which would make it a much better city to live in than its bigger peers.
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