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Old 03-07-2011, 08:24 PM
 
1,666 posts, read 2,411,457 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by adavi215 View Post
I think one thing people are forgetting is that Dallas and Atlanta MSA/CSA are huge. Southbound295 brings up a good point in looking at what counties are considered part of MSA threshold. Are all of the counties in present day Atlanta there in 1960? Idk, but that would be an interesting metric. As Charlotte grows so does its influence. As I have stated before, if the Energy Hub takes off, and it's centered in Union County, then Anson County will experience growth as well. Even Lancaster might grow, which is also growing due to Ballantyne. Another thing to look at is the NC Research Center in Kannapolis. Rowan and Cabarrus are practically like Mecklenburg and Gaston county, joined at the hip. If that center takes off expect to see Cabarrus and Rowan grow. Someone already mentioned Iredell.
Which means here are the following counties most likely to be included in the MSA:
Rowan
Iredell
Lancaster
Lincolton
Some other counties to watch are Cleveland, Chester, and Chesterfield. I think eventually all of these counties will be a part of the MSA. When this happens the core counties, as in the most dense and most urban counties, will be Mecklenburg, York, Gaston, and Cabarrus. Any county that touches one of them at that time will be either an MSA or CSA county. I did not include Union because this will be Mecklenburg's Cary.

On a side note, I think Charlotte will hit 1 million before the metro hits 5 million. I say Charlotte hits 1 million at 2021. Hits 5 million 2035. I give it 20-30 years due to more counties being added to the MSA. Another thing to watch is Hickory MSA being merged with Charlotte's in the future. That too is something worth considering.
Your right all those counties were not there back in the 70s . As time passed and Atlanta started booming the other counties came in. But Can definitely see Charlotte being 5 million by 2035 that sounds reasonable. I guess if we are all all around to see this I guess we will all find out then
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Old 03-07-2011, 09:51 PM
 
Location: The place where the road & the sky collide
21,903 posts, read 27,179,065 times
Reputation: 8966
Quote:
Originally Posted by adavi215 View Post
I think one thing people are forgetting is that Dallas and Atlanta MSA/CSA are huge. Southbound295 brings up a good point in looking at what counties are considered part of MSA threshold. Are all of the counties in present day Atlanta there in 1960? Idk, but that would be an interesting metric. As Charlotte grows so does its influence. As I have stated before, if the Energy Hub takes off, and it's centered in Union County, then Anson County will experience growth as well. Even Lancaster might grow, which is also growing due to Ballantyne. Another thing to look at is the NC Research Center in Kannapolis. Rowan and Cabarrus are practically like Mecklenburg and Gaston county, joined at the hip. If that center takes off expect to see Cabarrus and Rowan grow. Someone already mentioned Iredell.
Which means here are the following counties most likely to be included in the MSA:
Rowan
Iredell
Lancaster
Lincolton
Some other counties to watch are Cleveland, Chester, and Chesterfield. I think eventually all of these counties will be a part of the MSA. When this happens the core counties, as in the most dense and most urban counties, will be Mecklenburg, York, Gaston, and Cabarrus. Any county that touches one of them at that time will be either an MSA or CSA county. I did not include Union because this will be Mecklenburg's Cary.

On a side note, I think Charlotte will hit 1 million before the metro hits 5 million. I say Charlotte hits 1 million at 2021. Hits 5 million 2035. I give it 20-30 years due to more counties being added to the MSA. Another thing to watch is Hickory MSA being merged with Charlotte's in the future. That too is something worth considering.
Don't forget the Duke training facility in Kings Mountain. I was going to take a picture last weekend, but Mother Nature thought otherwise. Then there's Chemetall Foote. . .

I think that Iredell will be the next county into the MSA. I also supect that Lincoln & Cleveland will go in together, as they both border Gaston.
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Old 03-08-2011, 04:28 AM
 
1,661 posts, read 2,788,121 times
Reputation: 549
Quote:
Originally Posted by Carolina Blue View Post
Well then how do you explain the areas high growth rates from 2007 to 2010?
We don't know the current population growth rate. it's obvious however the job situation in Charlotte didn't begin to show up until 2009. It is known however that the current workforce and the current number of employed here is smaller than 2007, continues to fall, and as a side to that, the average household income in Mecklenburg has dropped as well. Anyone can look this up on the various government BLS sites. The news doesn't report these numbers and instead only reports the meaningless "unemployment rate".

Charlotte's growth over the last decade won't be matched over the next decade if these trends are not reduced substantially. It's clear the area did a huge amount of growing that coincided with the unsustainable and reckless growth of the finance industry in the USA. It's also clear now this is an industry that is barely holding on and only with great government assistance that IMO, has a very uncertain future. So unless there is something else to take it's place of a similar magnitude, don't expect Charlotte to do major growing anytime soon.

The question of this topic was to ask about Charlotte's growth rate and outcome. I've given my opinion of the cause and effect of this. I stand by the statement that without jobs growth, there won't be population growth. It doesn't matter what happened in the past.
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Old 03-08-2011, 05:52 AM
 
Location: Atlanta
969 posts, read 1,661,800 times
Reputation: 623
Quote:
Originally Posted by PeytonC View Post
Man it sure is good to see the folks from Atlanta come in here and keep us in check. That never happens. Took them record time to get in on this one, too.
I'm originally from Charlotte (my parents still live there) but now I live in Atlanta... so I like to come in the Charlotte board and see what's going on from time to time. I specifically stated in my post I wasn't knocking Charlotte, just trying to be realistic as it took 30-40 years with Atlanta's growth (which has historically been double Charlotte's) to reach its current metro population.
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Old 03-08-2011, 06:10 AM
 
4,677 posts, read 8,035,965 times
Reputation: 1236
Quote:
Originally Posted by yantosh22 View Post
We don't know the current population growth rate. it's obvious however the job situation in Charlotte didn't begin to show up until 2009. It is known however that the current workforce and the current number of employed here is smaller than 2007, continues to fall, and as a side to that, the average household income in Mecklenburg has dropped as well. Anyone can look this up on the various government BLS sites. The news doesn't report these numbers and instead only reports the meaningless "unemployment rate".

Charlotte's growth over the last decade won't be matched over the next decade if these trends are not reduced substantially. It's clear the area did a huge amount of growing that coincided with the unsustainable and reckless growth of the finance industry in the USA. It's also clear now this is an industry that is barely holding on and only with great government assistance that IMO, has a very uncertain future. So unless there is something else to take it's place of a similar magnitude, don't expect Charlotte to do major growing anytime soon.

The question of this topic was to ask about Charlotte's growth rate and outcome. I've given my opinion of the cause and effect of this. I stand by the statement that without jobs growth, there won't be population growth. It doesn't matter what happened in the past.
I definitely respect your opinion and don't knock you for that. I'm also realistic and a recent college grad so I know about Charlotte's job situation. However, things are starting to turn around. Companies are still relocating here, people are starting businesses, construction is picking up. As with any recovery things will be slower than before. But Charlotte is no Detroit.
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Old 03-08-2011, 06:21 AM
 
123 posts, read 245,876 times
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"It's also clear now this is an industry that is barely holding on and only with great government assistance that IMO, has a very uncertain future" said Yantosh22

Not sure where you are getting this info from...banks are sitting on an enormous surplus of cash! They have repaid billions and will continue to do so as people pay back debt and then go shopping etc. Businesses are flush with cash (big biz) and they will also look to banks for expansion plans. It won't be like the heyday as it was but things will turn around. Keep in mind, Charlotte is the 2nd largest financial center in the USA! That is saying something like it or not.

BTW, I do NOT work in any field related to finance! I do however, have a checking account with Wachovia/Wells!
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Old 03-08-2011, 06:52 AM
 
1,661 posts, read 2,788,121 times
Reputation: 549
Quote:
Originally Posted by jdubs1017 View Post
.....Not sure where you are getting this info from...banks are sitting on an enormous surplus of cash! They have repaid billions and will continue to do so as people pay back debt and then go shopping etc. Businesses are flush with cash (big biz) and they will also look to banks for expansion plans. It won't be like the heyday as it was but things will turn around. Keep in mind, Charlotte is the 2nd largest financial center in the USA! That is saying something like it or not......
This simply isn't the case. This isn't the place to debate this, but the TBTF banks have serious issues and if it wasn't for the federal government, they wouldn't be here now.

Charlotte will do well and will be lucky if BofA, Wells and Ally manage to hold their own. IMO, they are not going to provide the job growth they provided over the last 20 years.
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Old 03-08-2011, 07:43 AM
 
Location: Crown Town
2,742 posts, read 5,987,884 times
Reputation: 1667
Quote:
Originally Posted by yantosh22 View Post
We don't know the current population growth rate. it's obvious however the job situation in Charlotte didn't begin to show up until 2009. It is known however that the current workforce and the current number of employed here is smaller than 2007, continues to fall, and as a side to that, the average household income in Mecklenburg has dropped as well. Anyone can look this up on the various government BLS sites. The news doesn't report these numbers and instead only reports the meaningless "unemployment rate".

Charlotte's growth over the last decade won't be matched over the next decade if these trends are not reduced substantially. It's clear the area did a huge amount of growing that coincided with the unsustainable and reckless growth of the finance industry in the USA. It's also clear now this is an industry that is barely holding on and only with great government assistance that IMO, has a very uncertain future. So unless there is something else to take it's place of a similar magnitude, don't expect Charlotte to do major growing anytime soon.

The question of this topic was to ask about Charlotte's growth rate and outcome. I've given my opinion of the cause and effect of this. I stand by the statement that without jobs growth, there won't be population growth. It doesn't matter what happened in the past.
You're wrong. The facts don’t back up your “assumptions”. The recession started in 2007. Big layoffs in the financial services industry started well before then. And we do indeed know the area’s growth rate. Unless you've been under a rock, it’s been well reported that the area has continued to grow during this downturn. Other than your opinion, there are no facts that support your statements. That's why the past does matter.

People still flocking to Charlotte. Area's population surges even as economy has taken a slide over last decade.”

Full story: People still flocking to Charlotte - CharlotteObserver.com (http://www.charlotteobserver.com/2011/03/03/2106162/people-still-flocking-to-charlotte.html# - broken link)
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Old 03-08-2011, 09:07 AM
 
1,661 posts, read 2,788,121 times
Reputation: 549
I would have hoped you would have at least read that article you quoted. First it disputes nothing that I said. Second, it says these two things:
  • "The Charlotte region, by contrast, lost nearly 52,000 jobs,...."
  • "Population growth has slowed in the Charlotte area....."
I have not made any assumptions. As I stated above you can go to the BIS and look at the size of the labor force for Mecklenburg and the actual number of employed. It's not good.
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Old 03-08-2011, 09:46 AM
 
Location: Crown Town
2,742 posts, read 5,987,884 times
Reputation: 1667
Quote:
Originally Posted by yantosh22 View Post
I would have hoped you would have at least read that article you quoted. First it disputes nothing that I said. Second, it says these two things:
  • "The Charlotte region, by contrast, lost nearly 52,000 jobs,...."
  • "Population growth has slowed in the Charlotte area....."
I have not made any assumptions. As I stated above you can go to the BIS and look at the size of the labor force for Mecklenburg and the actual number of employed. It's not good.
The entire premise of that article contradicts the point you're trying to make. Just because the population growth "slowed", does not mean the population is still not growing "fast". Because it is. Charlotte is still one of the fastest growing places in the country. The title of the article itself says, "People still flocking to Charlotte. Area's population surges even as economy has taken a slide over last decade.” You said matter of factly, "Job growth is a prerequisite for population growth." If Charlotte's jobs have declined over the past three years, which is what you said, how do you explain the population growth? You still haven't answered that question.
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