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Old 11-07-2012, 09:58 AM
 
3,914 posts, read 3,940,876 times
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^That is an interesting question:

In NC turnout was
  • Obama - 2,177,794
  • Romney - 2,274,793
  • Other - 56,837
  • Romney trumps Obama by 96,999
Mecklenburg Actual
  • 676,961
  • 450,042
  • Did not vote 226,919
  • Romney - 170, 495
  • Obama - 270,705
  • Other - 4,897
Suppose 100% of Meckenburg had voted @ assign votes at same percentages. The NC state race changes as follows:

  • Obama - 2,584,993
  • Romney - 2,531,254
  • Other -
  • Obama trumps Romney by 53,739
So there you are. If every eligible in Mecklenburg had voted and the percentages held, then Obama would have won NC and NC would be blue. In other words, who doesn't vote is as important as those who do. This one county could have easily changed the election completely. Instead, it was the voters in Wake who pulled it out for Romney if what you said is true.
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Old 11-07-2012, 09:59 AM
 
Location: Charlotte NC
11,717 posts, read 9,341,825 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by coped View Post
Republicans are the Whigs of the 21st century. They will no longer exist or will fundamentally change by 2020.
Locally I don't think so.. but as far as the POTUS is concerned? Yeah.. until they admit the demo is changing they will keep losing. They offend the people they need in order to win.

The only way to secure a win is to discourage people from voting... which is sad.
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Old 11-07-2012, 10:05 AM
 
Location: Charlotte NC
11,717 posts, read 9,341,825 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by frewroad View Post
So there you are. If every eligible in Mecklenburg had voted and the percentages held, then Obama would have won NC and NC would be blue. In other words, who doesn't vote is as important as those who do. This one county could have easily changed the election completely. Instead, it was the voters in Wake who pulled it out for Romney if what you said is true.
interesting...

too bad for Romney.... it probably forced the Pacs to spend more time and money that could have went to Ohio or Florida.
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Old 11-07-2012, 10:53 AM
 
2,603 posts, read 4,269,878 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Feltdesigner View Post
Locally I don't think so.. but as far as the POTUS is concerned? Yeah.. until they admit the demo is changing they will keep losing. They offend the people they need in order to win.

The only way to secure a win is to discourage people from voting... which is sad.
There is a demographic tsunami coming in 20 years when the baby boomers start dying in droves. Even locally the GOP is going to be in serious trouble.
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Old 11-07-2012, 10:57 AM
 
Location: The place where the road & the sky collide
21,858 posts, read 27,133,212 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeyKid View Post
Percentage wise, those that did vote in Meck voted at a much higher percentage for Obama than in Wake county. Period. You can concentrate on those that didn't vote - I'm choosing to concentrate on the ones who did. We can debate who those 1 out of 3 in Meck that didn't vote would have voted for, but I'd wager that if Meck had a higher turn out NC may have stayed blue or at worst been much closer in an already close race... and likely this means that NC will be seriously in play for 2016.

Ultimately, Romney's "base" was more voting against Obama than for Romney... which is firmly on the horrendous job the GOP does at a national level.

Sure you called it correctly, but as you admit Obama knew he didn't need it and look how close it was anyway. OH and FL were the real action. As for the state level, I don't see the switch to more red as necessarily a good or bad thing. We'll see how they do!
I agree, but also the reality is that the Republicans picked off people outside of Charlotte with dog-whistle mass mailings. Grover Norquist's group focused on Obama with blatantly twisted "facts". The NC state Republican party sent out nasty, hateful mailings for state candidates. In my US house district (10), McHenry sent out a nasty, hateful mailing about Patsy Keever. They picked people off that way.

Making the state legislature more red is not good. 2 years ago they ran on jobs, jobs, jobs. They slashed the education budget & gave us Amendment One. Bev set a record for vetoes. Annexation has kept property taxes down & they've made it next to impossible.. Giving them the whole state government will not be good. These are not moderate Republicans.
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Old 11-07-2012, 11:10 AM
 
6,270 posts, read 9,993,341 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by coped View Post
There is a demographic tsunami coming in 20 years when the baby boomers start dying in droves. Even locally the GOP is going to be in serious trouble.
Locally (ie Mecklenburg) they are already in trouble. As for the president, let's look at the facts here. Obama was far less popular Nationally this time around than he was back in 2008. Florida, Virginia, and Ohio almost didn't vote for him. He supports gay marriage too, yet he still had a close race in NC. When the economy is in the toilet, presidents usually lose their job.

The dems at the state level in NC certainly didn't help with their not-so-smart governor, the legal problems, and the sex scandal (a homosexual sex scandal at that in a state that approved amendment 1). The head of the dems in NC was asked to step down, but he refused. Instead, he continued on with the planning of the DNC.

To be quite honest, the NC dems were a mess, and it was time for a house cleaning. Obama certainly didn't help himself by giving these state dems a spotlight at the DNC. Even with all of this, it was still a relatively close race in NC. So in my mind, the republicans (especially the ones on the far right) had better get their acts together. It will be tough winning the White House in 2016 when you have NC, VA, Ohio, Florida and a few others that can go either way.
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Old 11-07-2012, 11:23 AM
 
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iMO, there isn't much difference between the Democratic and Republican parties when it comes to national politics. On issues where the future of our country hangs, huge military outlays, continuing economic destruction caused by the finance industry & federal reserve, corporate exporting of American industry, there was little said by either of them.

This election instead was American Idol - Presidential Edition.

With that said this election was the GOP's to lose given the horrible job of Obama, but like 2004 where it was the Democrats to lose, the party ended up nominating a pair who were not very good candidates. Romney might have pulled it off, if, he had picked Condelissa Rice for running mate as once rumored. But he didn't and discovered that white bread doesn't go well with more white bread these days.

Romney/Ryan 2012 = Kerry/Edwards 2004 (well except for maybe that thing with the mistress, love child, & sex tape)

I think it would have been a much more interesting election if Newt Gingrich had been nominated, but the Rovian side of the GOP saw to it that would not have happened. It backfired on them.
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Old 11-07-2012, 11:42 AM
 
Location: Union County
5,783 posts, read 8,411,000 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by frewroad View Post
So there you are. If every eligible in Mecklenburg had voted and the percentages held, then Obama would have won NC and NC would be blue. In other words, who doesn't vote is as important as those who do. This one county could have easily changed the election completely. Instead, it was the voters in Wake who pulled it out for Romney if what you said is true.
Come 2016 this will put Meck county directly in the cross hairs for the DNC. Maybe they thought just having the DNC was enough (it was percentage wise), but it didn't materialize in turn-out. Frankly the DNC is just simply better at national elections and I don't see that changing as long as the GOP keeps picking horrible overall candidates, panders to the extreme right in primaries, and the trend of older male white voters as an overall percentage keeps declining (which it will). IMO their best shot is a true libertarian in someone like a Ron Paul (would have gotten my vote and done incredibly better with younger voters than Romney did) who has real answers to really hard questions and doesn't overshadow important fiscal conservative policies with social conservative talking points. The GOP needs the establishment to accept an anti-establishment candidate. Until then I think the majority will favor left moderates who don't do silly things like limiting women's and gay's rights as a priority. I had a binder full of women - rofl.

Quote:
Originally Posted by southbound_295 View Post
I agree, but also the reality is that the Republicans picked off people outside of Charlotte with dog-whistle mass mailings. Grover Norquist's group focused on Obama with blatantly twisted "facts". The NC state Republican party sent out nasty, hateful mailings for state candidates. In my US house district (10), McHenry sent out a nasty, hateful mailing about Patsy Keever. They picked people off that way.

Making the state legislature more red is not good. 2 years ago they ran on jobs, jobs, jobs. They slashed the education budget & gave us Amendment One. Bev set a record for vetoes. Annexation has kept property taxes down & they've made it next to impossible.. Giving them the whole state government will not be good. These are not moderate Republicans.
I'm willing to give them the benefit of the doubt just as I hope folks who voted for Romney can pull it together and consider compromises for the good of the country. We need to stop worrying about contraception and find a way to back off from this fiscal cliff everyone knows is looming. Since it's finally not in the best interest of the GOP to keep the economy bad for election purposes, one hopes adult politics can emerge... I personally hope that the NC leadership will lead the way in building a stronger state for my kids to grow up in - I will continue optimistic on this front and give them some time.
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Old 11-07-2012, 12:13 PM
 
2,603 posts, read 4,269,878 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by frewroad View Post
I think it would have been a much more interesting election if Newt Gingrich had been nominated, but the Rovian side of the GOP saw to it that would not have happened. It backfired on them.
Newt Gingrich is white bread personified. He's probably the most overtly racist candidate in the GOP stable. He also is a tad bipolar and lacks moral fiber. Gingrich speaks to Deep South but could never speak to the country.
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Old 11-07-2012, 12:18 PM
 
Location: The place where the road & the sky collide
21,858 posts, read 27,133,212 times
Reputation: 8929
Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeyKid View Post
Come 2016 this will put Meck county directly in the cross hairs for the DNC. Maybe they thought just having the DNC was enough (it was percentage wise), but it didn't materialize in turn-out. Frankly the DNC is just simply better at national elections and I don't see that changing as long as the GOP keeps picking horrible overall candidates, panders to the extreme right in primaries, and the trend of older male white voters as an overall percentage keeps declining (which it will). IMO their best shot is a true libertarian in someone like a Ron Paul (would have gotten my vote and done incredibly better with younger voters than Romney did) who has real answers to really hard questions and doesn't overshadow important fiscal conservative policies with social conservative talking points. The GOP needs the establishment to accept an anti-establishment candidate. Until then I think the majority will favor left moderates who don't do silly things like limiting women's and gay's rights as a priority. I had a binder full of women - rofl.



I'm willing to give them the benefit of the doubt just as I hope folks who voted for Romney can pull it together and consider compromises for the good of the country. We need to stop worrying about contraception and find a way to back off from this fiscal cliff everyone knows is looming. Since it's finally not in the best interest of the GOP to keep the economy bad for election purposes, one hopes adult politics can emerge... I personally hope that the NC leadership will lead the way in building a stronger state for my kids to grow up in - I will continue optimistic on this front and give them some time.
Google "Deb Butler NC senate" I can't post the link because of what the url says.

I'm happy to vote for moderate Republicans. Attacking Planned Parenthood on the national & state level is not moderate. Without the horrible mass mailings outside of Charlotte, I have no doubt that the presidential election & several other elections would have ended differently or closer. Sending out mailings saying that a candidate is against traditional marriage because that candidate was against Amendment One is dog-whistle politics.

McCrory has promised to sign whatever the Republicans give him. His jobs plan is "Drill baby drill".
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