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Old 02-12-2013, 06:15 AM
 
Location: Matthews, NC
14,693 posts, read 23,089,694 times
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It's possible, but it ain't great!
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Old 02-12-2013, 07:18 AM
 
3,914 posts, read 3,945,062 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Geologic View Post
.
I do think that $10 Gasoline is a real possibility within 5 years, esepcially if the US dollar slides, so maybe my view on oil is more extreme than yours is.
I heard this said in 1979. Yet relatively speaking, gasoline is cheaper now than it was then. It was often used to scare people into making decisions that never panned out. Furthermore, new technology means the USA is currently producing more gasoline than it uses so it has become a major exporter of the commodity and last year hit a record for gasoline exports.

If gasoline does hit $10/gallon the economics of that simply means other technologies become viable for automobiles. Hydrogen, bio fuels, natural gas, etc are all possibilities. I am a fan of transit but building transit lines at great public expense come with a host of complex issues. These are not issues just limited to Charlotte. Furthermore the cost of transit comes with social impacts where given the choice most people would prefer to live in a detached home with a yard. Automobiles make this possible.

Americans drive automobiles because they can. You mention freedom, we have the freedom to make this choice. We will choose to change when the situation makes alternatives a better choice. I'm not sure why people are so against this.
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Old 02-12-2013, 07:20 AM
 
Location: Charlotte NC
11,723 posts, read 9,353,324 times
Reputation: 5231
Quote:
Originally Posted by Geologic View Post
I can see nothing wrong with making a comparison with other countries.
It seems that: You missed all the important parts of my previous post, so I feel compelled to HIGHLIGHT again, the main points that you did not comment upon:
No need to point them out again.. I'm not against public transportation or using a car less. I'm in favor of all rail projects this city proposes but I don't think the HK or Tokyo models are good examples when talking about Charlotte.

Charlotte is a a fraction of HK or NYC and bragging about transit or economic growth is misguided IMO.

Once you view Charlotte for what it is (a growing mid-size city) and look at the transportation model in place I can't see how anyone would feel it's light years behind HK.

Look at these:





This is Charlotte my friend, no need to build 80 story units with studio apartments for a city this size. Research the Vue (spelling) and you will see what happens when Charlotte tried to go all HK before the market crashed. We are thinking green, thinking mass transit and rail but you have to take off the HK goggles and look at Charlotte for what it is and what it can be given it's size.
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Old 02-12-2013, 07:25 AM
 
Location: Charlotte NC
11,723 posts, read 9,353,324 times
Reputation: 5231
Quote:
Originally Posted by frewroad View Post
I heard this said in 1979. Yet relatively speaking, gasoline is cheaper now than it was then. It was often used to scare people into making decisions that never panned out. Furthermore, new technology means the USA is currently producing more gasoline than it uses so it has become a major exporter of the commodity and last year hit a record for gasoline exports.

If gasoline does hit $10/gallon the economics of that simply means other technologies become viable for automobiles. Hydrogen, bio fuels, natural gas, etc are all possibilities. I am a fan of transit but building transit lines at great public expense come with a host of complex issues. These are not issues just limited to Charlotte. Furthermore the cost of transit comes with social impacts where given the choice most people would prefer to live in a detached home with a yard. Automobiles make this possible.

American's drive automobiles because they can. You mention freedom, we have the freedom to make this choice.
I agree.... a lot of people move to Charlotte for the house and yard. There are some who prefer city living and that's also an option but if one wants to re-enact HK or other densely populated cities we have NYC, Boston, DC and Chicago.

..and there is high speed from Boston to DC.
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Old 02-12-2013, 08:16 AM
 
Location: Hong Kong
1,329 posts, read 869,577 times
Reputation: 217
Quote:
Originally Posted by frewroad View Post
I heard this said in 1979. Yet relatively speaking, gasoline is cheaper now than it was then. It was often used to scare people into making decisions that never panned out. Furthermore, new technology means the USA is currently producing more gasoline than it uses so it has become a major exporter of the commodity and last year hit a record for gasoline exports.

If gasoline does hit $10/gallon the economics of that simply means other technologies become viable for automobiles. Hydrogen, bio fuels, natural gas, etc are all possibilities. I am a fan of transit but building transit lines at great public expense come with a host of complex issues. These are not issues just limited to Charlotte. Furthermore the cost of transit comes with social impacts where given the choice most people would prefer to live in a detached home with a yard. Automobiles make this possible.

Americans drive automobiles because they can. You mention freedom, we have the freedom to make this choice. We will choose to change when the situation makes alternatives a better choice. I'm not sure why people are so against this.
Well, all I can say is: You MAY be right, but I don't want to bet on Oil staying at current levels. I would rather be "hedged" by having a living arrangement that can sustain a big jump in prices. I have already seen gasoline prices rise from under 20 cents to about $4,00 - that's a 20X increase. And I see no reason that rises will not continue.

All those new technologies that you have listed are unlikely to help passenger cars much. How much savings do you really get with a hybrid? From what I have read, they cost more and the ultimate driving cost per mile is not substantially lower. Living carfree, and not needing a car is the best way to hedge.

"Americans drive because they can" ??
What does that mean?
I think it is more accurate to say: Many Americans drive because they have to. There is no other effective time-efficient way to get around - for most of them, given where they live. I want to be part of the minority that does have effective alternative ways of going about my daily routine.
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Old 02-12-2013, 08:25 AM
 
Location: Hong Kong
1,329 posts, read 869,577 times
Reputation: 217
Quote:
Originally Posted by Feltdesigner View Post
... if one wants to re-enact HK or other densely populated cities we have NYC, Boston, DC and Chicago.
..and there is high speed from Boston to DC.
Okay.
I have my own reasons for not wanting to live in NYC or Chicago again, and weather is one of them.

I also think that NC & SC have potential to grow much faster (than the Northeast), if they get transport right.
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Old 02-12-2013, 08:31 AM
 
Location: Hong Kong
1,329 posts, read 869,577 times
Reputation: 217
Quote:
Originally Posted by Feltdesigner View Post
I agree.... a lot of people move to Charlotte for the house and yard.
Nothing wrong with that.
Londoners like gardens too.
But they have more transport options
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Old 02-12-2013, 09:35 AM
 
Location: The place where the road & the sky collide
21,894 posts, read 27,173,603 times
Reputation: 8966
Quote:
Originally Posted by Geologic View Post
Well, all I can say is: You MAY be right, but I don't want to bet on Oil staying at current levels. I would rather be "hedged" by having a living arrangement that can sustain a big jump in prices. I have already seen gasoline prices rise from under 20 cents to about $4,00 - that's a 20X increase. And I see no reason that rises will not continue.

All those new technologies that you have listed are unlikely to help passenger cars much. How much savings do you really get with a hybrid? From what I have read, they cost more and the ultimate driving cost per mile is not substantially lower. Living carfree, and not needing a car is the best way to hedge.

"Americans drive because they can" ??
What does that mean?
I think it is more accurate to say: Many Americans drive because they have to. There is no other effective time-efficient way to get around - for most of them, given where they live. I want to be part of the minority that does have effective alternative ways of going about my daily routine.
If you remember gas prices under 20 cents, you are older than I am. I remember 20 cents only during "gas wars".

Hong Kong is so crowded because people from mainland China fled to the then-British colony when Chairman Mao took over.

That said, if you are older than I am, don't plan on the transit system being finished in this lifetime.

Density will increase in NC because of a change made last year in the annexation law. That said, there are places throughout the region that would be good bets for investment, but your best bet for living without a a car is Charlotte, given your stated requirements.
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Old 02-12-2013, 10:04 AM
 
3,914 posts, read 3,945,062 times
Reputation: 1272
Quote:
Originally Posted by Geologic View Post
I think it is more accurate to say: Many Americans drive because they have to. There is no other effective time-efficient way to get around - for most of them, given where they live. I want to be part of the minority that does have effective alternative ways of going about my daily routine.
Not really. People choose to live in the places they live. They can very well choose to live in places that don't require an automobile. As I said earlier, if given the choice in living in dense compact quarters or having a house with a yard, they will choose the house and yard. This has been happening in Charlotte for over 100 years.

Another fallacy is the one that states that building of transit results in high density. It doesn't. Density is achieved either because local conditions (lack of land & over population) cause it, or choice is removed from the people that forces them to live in such conditions. (Portland's urban development zone) Transit's only purpose is to solve transit problems caused by density. This fallacy is repeated endlessly by people pushing transit as the only option, yet they can never provide any definitive proof. (i.e. compared to a no build situation)

If you want to live somewhere where you can ride on a train, I've got no issue with this. Again it's a choice. Where the issue arises is when such advocacy attempts to remove the same choice from others who choose to live differently.
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Old 02-12-2013, 10:25 AM
 
Location: Charlotte NC
11,723 posts, read 9,353,324 times
Reputation: 5231
20 cents? I remember when it was $1.00 and we could fill our Saturn up with $12.00 in Philly in 2003.

..and one of the reason's gas is so high is due to the demand from China...

from Bloomberg

Quote:
The number of private passenger vehicles in China was 62.4 million at the end of 2011, a sevenfold increase on the 8.45 million at the end of 2003, according to National Bureau of Statistics data. The number of cars may surpass 200 million by 2020, the official Xinhua News Agency reported on July 31, citing the Ministry of Transport.
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