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Old 12-11-2013, 07:24 PM
 
1,226 posts, read 2,055,483 times
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All the buzz has died down.... doesn't seem like anybody has any interest in the McKibben report.

I'm no expert, but from reading the report, http://fpc.ucps.k12.nc.us/documents/TOTALPRESENTATION.pdf, I'm predicting that they are going to recommend no new schools. The total numbers for Union County never reach over capacity. The highest we reach is 43776 in 2018, and we have a capacity of 44736. All the schools that are overcapacity (with the exception of Marvin Middle) have adjacent schools that are below capacity. In addition, by the time a new school is built out and ready to accept new students, the numbers are projected to start to decline. very.interesting. Does anybody think that it does show we need new schools???

I am going to predict that in Marvin Ridge, they will redistrict the elementary schools to give relief to Sandy Ridge and to give more to Marvin Elementary. Probably Providence Downs South, since Providence South already goes to Marvin? They need to move about 100 elementary school kids. There really is no sense in redistricting the whole cluster, because the elementary schools don't need less, they actually can take on more. So I would think that they look for a more temporary solution. I can't imagine they keep the cap in place for three years, although that is an option. I would think that a more reasonable solution would be to do a "partial feeder" like some of the other clusters, and have some of Sandy Ridge feed into Cuthberson or part of Rea View feed into Weddington for the next 4-5 years, while grandfathering in all juniors and seniors....

Kensington seems to have 300 kids too many, and Waxhaw seems to have room for 300 more. Newtown seems to have 150-200 too many kids, and Wesley Chapel seems to have room for just that many.

It's the middle and highschools that are going to be the big problem. The numbers just would not sustain a new school, but the current capacity just isn't enough in the next 2-5 years. Maybe they increase Weddington Middle from 1000 to 1200 like some of the others? Or redo some of those other old schools?? It will be interesting to see what they come up with. They really need to think outside the box, maybe make some year around schools, have 6th grade in elementary, or offer more online courses in MS/HS?
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Old 12-11-2013, 09:03 PM
 
Location: Charlotte Metro Area
2,155 posts, read 3,383,517 times
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One word: Trailers.
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Old 12-12-2013, 05:46 AM
 
Location: Wesley Chapel
423 posts, read 664,049 times
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I wish the report stated what the capacity was for each school. Reading the report, it was hard to guess what changes would be made because I don't know how many kids the schools will/can handle.

OP, how do you know the WC Elementary has enough space for those extra kids? Do you know what their capacity is?
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Old 12-12-2013, 07:37 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lauralaylin View Post
I wish the report stated what the capacity was for each school. Reading the report, it was hard to guess what changes would be made because I don't know how many kids the schools will/can handle.

OP, how do you know the WC Elementary has enough space for those extra kids? Do you know what their capacity is?
WC has a capacity of 670 kids, they only have 515 this year and projected to go down with each year.

Everybody is talking about the need for a new elementary school.... including myself, but these numbers just don't support that. Total capacity in elementary is 20,415 and the highest projection year is 19,148 students, and expected to quickly fall after that. They just need to readjust those boundaries somehow.

The first column on the following document lists each school's capacity.

http://fpc.ucps.k12.nc.us/documents/UCPSEnrollmentForecast012913.pdf
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Old 12-12-2013, 12:48 PM
 
Location: Wesley Chapel
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Thanks! Someone also gave me a link to that after I wrote earlier. Lot easier to understand this with that information included.
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Old 12-12-2013, 01:49 PM
 
Location: Union County
5,787 posts, read 8,431,731 times
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The board meeting was so crowded in anticipation of redistricting - even had some emotional pleas from parents directed at the board... yet all that was addressed on the subject was this forecast. Which is pretty much what we expected. It's an interesting read.

You reference MR and your points are good - relieving Sandy Ridge into under utilized Marvin and Rea View. But the issue is the Middle and High, which will hit about 120% capacity in the next 3 years. Moving Elem kids around won't address that.

It's similar situations in the other clusters - room in the Elems, but overcrowding in the Middle and Highs. They need to relieve the Middle and High Schools.

Cuthbertson is in really bad shape numbers wise... it seems to be the worst as they're going to peak at 150% capacity in the Middle school according to the forecast.

Trailers won't be enough - too many kids. Even if you wanted to ignore the safety aspect, losing the Fed funding for having trailers is not the way to go. They need to do something... and I'm very curious what it will be... stay tuned!
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Old 12-12-2013, 03:58 PM
 
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if 2 schools at the high school level (middle school too) are way above capacity in the next couple years, redistricting I don't think is off the table
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Old 12-12-2013, 05:10 PM
 
Location: Union County
5,787 posts, read 8,431,731 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mewith3 View Post
if 2 schools at the high school level (middle school too) are way above capacity in the next couple years, redistricting I don't think is off the table
I'm not quite sure what you mean... there's no doubt they are going to redistrict. They have to.
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Old 12-12-2013, 08:22 PM
 
1,226 posts, read 2,055,483 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeyKid View Post
The board meeting was so crowded in anticipation of redistricting - even had some emotional pleas from parents directed at the board... yet all that was addressed on the subject was this forecast. Which is pretty much what we expected. It's an interesting read.

You reference MR and your points are good - relieving Sandy Ridge into under utilized Marvin and Rea View. But the issue is the Middle and High, which will hit about 120% capacity in the next 3 years. Moving Elem kids around won't address that.

It's similar situations in the other clusters - room in the Elems, but overcrowding in the Middle and Highs. They need to relieve the Middle and High Schools.

Cuthbertson is in really bad shape numbers wise... it seems to be the worst as they're going to peak at 150% capacity in the Middle school according to the forecast.

Trailers won't be enough - too many kids. Even if you wanted to ignore the safety aspect, losing the Fed funding for having trailers is not the way to go. They need to do something... and I'm very curious what it will be... stay tuned!
Yeah, sandy ridge redistricting is the easy part.... that's why I was able to come up with it myself I have no idea how they are going to address the middle school and highschool issues, I don't get paid to try to solve that puzzle! But its pretty obvious to me that it wouldn't make sense to take 2-3 years to build a new school that will never reach capacity and then start a steep decline. Trailers are an option up to 120%.....so redistricting and then bringing all schools temporarily above capacity??. Also, some of those old schools like Monroe are in desperate need of remodeling. ..maybe adding some capacity on those? Of course nobody wants to go there.

Another charter school....more college classes at community? I don't know.
it will be interesting for sure.
Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeyKid View Post
I'm not quite sure what you mean... there's no doubt they are going to redistrict. They have to.
Absolutely. It is a must, it just cant be the only answer.
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Old 12-13-2013, 06:07 AM
 
Location: Union County
5,787 posts, read 8,431,731 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cc0789 View Post
Yeah, sandy ridge redistricting is the easy part.... that's why I was able to come up with it myself I have no idea how they are going to address the middle school and highschool issues, I don't get paid to try to solve that puzzle! But its pretty obvious to me that it wouldn't make sense to take 2-3 years to build a new school that will never reach capacity and then start a steep decline. Trailers are an option up to 120%.....so redistricting and then bringing all schools temporarily above capacity??. Also, some of those old schools like Monroe are in desperate need of remodeling. ..maybe adding some capacity on those? Of course nobody wants to go there.

Another charter school....more college classes at community? I don't know.
it will be interesting for sure.

Absolutely. It is a must, it just cant be the only answer.
I had this conversation with my wife last night - as in redistricting being the "only answer". I see people getting emotional about this... and don't get me wrong, I understand why. But you have to begin with some semblance of reason - when we bought in Union County we were guaranteed a county education for our kids. Period. New schools, building moratorium, etc... I don't see how those are relevant when the forecast doesn't show the county as a whole is over allocated for seats in the schools. Yes, you can make the argument how heavily lopsided it is in the NW corner of the county... you may argue the validity of the forecast... and you can rant about politicians funded by the developers... I get it. But that doesn't get your ginger snapped.

Short term I don't see an option other than redistricting when some schools are 150% capacity and some are 75% capacity... long term and strategic thinking is a separate discussion and I'm sure we're loaded with ideas.
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