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Old 01-27-2014, 12:20 PM
 
451 posts, read 608,588 times
Reputation: 248

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Quote:
Originally Posted by First and Ten View Post
Again, my opinion, relieving overcrowding won't necessarily increase property values for everyone. Lets use Marvin. If a person is remaining in the MR district after redistricting, i think that house actually has a chance to go up in value as you can research it will be a "10" and the student-teacher ratio will go down, which will be more appealing to those potential buyers researching the area…..Now, if you take a house that is currently in a school that is a 9 or 10 and they are moving to a significantly lower ranked school, yes, i do believe there will be a decrease in that homeowners property values. I have seen the arguments on how these rankings are false, but the fact remains that people do use them when doing research and it would seem to indicate they are a very big factor

Here's my best shot at comp analysis for your $60K loss.

I looked at recent sales (last 12 months) in the hotly contested Cuthbertson cluster area and nearby Parkwood. Relatively new home construction with relatively similar SQF and bedroom/bath setup.

Comp 1:
1611 Ashburn Ridge Dr (on cul de sac)
Waxhaw, NC 28173
Subdivision: Briarcrest - Resort-Style Amenities; Pool, Clubhouse, Playground, Basketball Courts & Tennis, Picnic Area, Walking Trail, and Dog Park
Sale Date: 9/13/2013
Sale Amount: $350,000
Bedrooms: 5 beds
Bathrooms: 4 baths
Square Footage: 3,489 SQF
Year Built: 2011
Price per SQF: $100.31/SQF (includes amenity premium)


ES: New Town ES=10
MS: Cuthbertson MS=10
HS: Cuthbertson HS=9


Comp 2:
1324 Huntcliff Dr.
Waxhaw, NC 28173
Subdivision: Copper Run-No amenities
Sale Date: 11/15/2013
Sale Amount: $283,000
Bedrooms: 4 beds
Bathrooms: 3 baths
Square Footage: 3,000 SQF
Year Built: 2013
Price per SQF: $94.33/SQF (excludes amenity premium)


ES: Western Union ES=6
MS: Parkwood MS=8
HS: Parkwood HS=5

Unadjusted $SQF Analysis
Cuthbertson Cluster:......$100.31/SQF (includes amenity premium)
Parkwood Cluster:..........$ 94.33/SQF (excludes amenity premium)
......Premium/(Discount)..$ 5.98/SQF Premium
......Premium/(Discount)..% 6.33% Premium


Adjusted $SQF Analysis-Adjusted for the amenity premium assuming $10,000 premium for Briarcrest amenities: Pool, Clubhouse, Playground, Basketball Courts & Tennis, Picnic Area, Walking Trail, and Dog Park and sidewalks
1611 Ashburn Ridge Dr
Sales Price............................................$ 350,000
Less Amenity Premium................................10,000
Adjusted no amenity sales price................$340,000
SQF............................................... ...........3,489
Adjusted Exluding Premium Price per SQF........$97.45

Cuthbertson Cluster:......$ 97.45/SQF (excludes amenity premium)
Parkwood Cluster:..........$ 94.33/SQF (excludes amenity premium)
......Premium/(Discount)..$ 3.12/SQF Premium
......Premium/(Discount)..% 3.31% Premium


So there you go Cuthbertson Cluster gets 3%-6% cluster premium. That's it. And that's unadjusted for Parkwood's need for repair or for 1611 Ashburn having a cul de sac location.

To get your $60K loss you would have to have one expensive house going from Cuthbertson to Parkwood and I'm just not aware of many of those. Maybe Marvin, maybe Weddington but those getting redistricted from those areas will not have the perceived score discount.

Property values have risen about 10%-12% the last 12 months in this part of the county. Assuming economic conditions remain the same, that type of growth should continue over the next 12-18 months and then slowly flatten to historical levels as housing prices recover to near 2007 levels.

So if (and that's a big if) there is an impact with redistricting it will be small and temporary, less than 6 months. Even if you had a decline of 6%-8%, that would be made up with the general rise in all property values within 12 months if not less. And by 2015 rolls around there would be no impact just in time for the county's 2015 property revaluation.

 
Old 01-27-2014, 12:58 PM
 
141 posts, read 171,905 times
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cc0789
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Quote:

Its not that they can't use trailers, its that they can't to go over core capacity. There is a big difference with getting two trailers worth of students into a school during a tornado, and getting 27. Do you want your kid to be the last kid in line in trailer #27? I don't. And it is just not ideal, so you reduce it to the best of your ability. Whats the point of protecting 90 percent of your students with locked doors, armed police officers, and requesting ids and background checks for visitors, when you literally have trailer kids roaming next to parking lots when they have to go pee?

NO, absolutely wrong….he did not say they can't use trailers to go over core capacity….he said trailers were unsafe and painted the scenario of what if a tornado should hit. That had nothing to do with "core capacity"….he tried to get cute and called out Savage and Hodges with "who's children would you have in the trailers should a tornado hit" (paraphrasing)….he NEVER linked the use of trailers with Core Capacity

Last edited by First and Ten; 01-27-2014 at 01:07 PM..
 
Old 01-27-2014, 01:04 PM
 
141 posts, read 171,905 times
Reputation: 63
Quote:
Originally Posted by SunshineCJ View Post
Here's my best shot at comp analysis for your $60K loss.

I looked at recent sales (last 12 months) in the hotly contested Cuthbertson cluster area and nearby Parkwood. Relatively new home construction with relatively similar SQF and bedroom/bath setup.

Comp 1:
1611 Ashburn Ridge Dr (on cul de sac)
Waxhaw, NC 28173
Subdivision: Briarcrest - Resort-Style Amenities; Pool, Clubhouse, Playground, Basketball Courts & Tennis, Picnic Area, Walking Trail, and Dog Park
Sale Date: 9/13/2013
Sale Amount: $350,000
Bedrooms: 5 beds
Bathrooms: 4 baths
Square Footage: 3,489 SQF
Year Built: 2011
Price per SQF: $100.31/SQF (includes amenity premium)


ES: New Town ES=10
MS: Cuthbertson MS=10
HS: Cuthbertson HS=9


Comp 2:
1324 Huntcliff Dr.
Waxhaw, NC 28173
Subdivision: Copper Run-No amenities
Sale Date: 11/15/2013
Sale Amount: $283,000
Bedrooms: 4 beds
Bathrooms: 3 baths
Square Footage: 3,000 SQF
Year Built: 2013
Price per SQF: $94.33/SQF (excludes amenity premium)


ES: Western Union ES=6
MS: Parkwood MS=8
HS: Parkwood HS=5

Unadjusted $SQF Analysis
Cuthbertson Cluster:......$100.31/SQF (includes amenity premium)
Parkwood Cluster:..........$ 94.33/SQF (excludes amenity premium)
......Premium/(Discount)..$ 5.98/SQF Premium
......Premium/(Discount)..% 6.33% Premium


Adjusted $SQF Analysis-Adjusted for the amenity premium assuming $10,000 premium for Briarcrest amenities: Pool, Clubhouse, Playground, Basketball Courts & Tennis, Picnic Area, Walking Trail, and Dog Park and sidewalks
1611 Ashburn Ridge Dr
Sales Price............................................$ 350,000
Less Amenity Premium................................10,000
Adjusted no amenity sales price................$340,000
SQF............................................... ...........3,489
Adjusted Exluding Premium Price per SQF........$97.45

Cuthbertson Cluster:......$ 97.45/SQF (excludes amenity premium)
Parkwood Cluster:..........$ 94.33/SQF (excludes amenity premium)
......Premium/(Discount)..$ 3.12/SQF Premium
......Premium/(Discount)..% 3.31% Premium


So there you go Cuthbertson Cluster gets 3%-6% cluster premium. That's it. And that's unadjusted for Parkwood's need for repair or for 1611 Ashburn having a cul de sac location.

To get your $60K loss you would have to have one expensive house going from Cuthbertson to Parkwood and I'm just not aware of many of those. Maybe Marvin, maybe Weddington but those getting redistricted from those areas will not have the perceived score discount.

Property values have risen about 10%-12% the last 12 months in this part of the county. Assuming economic conditions remain the same, that type of growth should continue over the next 12-18 months and then slowly flatten to historical levels as housing prices recover to near 2007 levels.

So if (and that's a big if) there is an impact with redistricting it will be small and temporary, less than 6 months. Even if you had a decline of 6%-8%, that would be made up with the general rise in all property values within 12 months if not less. And by 2015 rolls around there would be no impact just in time for the county's 2015 property revaluation.
Follow the KISS rule Sunshine….i see you are trying to distract with your "Premium %'s" and "Discounts"….Cut to the chase….House in Cuth SD goes for $350K….I will even GIVE you the fact we can add $10K to the sale price for "amenities"….the SAME house in the PW SD going for $283K….make a liar out of me for $3K….the difference is $57K….thank you for the research in proving my point
 
Old 01-27-2014, 01:16 PM
 
1,226 posts, read 2,051,610 times
Reputation: 1864
Quote:
Originally Posted by First and Ten View Post
cc0789
Senior Member
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Join Date: Jan 2010
1,157 posts, read 694,104 times
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Quote:

Its not that they can't use trailers, its that they can't to go over core capacity. There is a big difference with getting two trailers worth of students into a school during a tornado, and getting 27. Do you want your kid to be the last kid in line in trailer #27? I don't. And it is just not ideal, so you reduce it to the best of your ability. Whats the point of protecting 90 percent of your students with locked doors, armed police officers, and requesting ids and background checks for visitors, when you literally have trailer kids roaming next to parking lots when they have to go pee?

NO, absolutely wrong….he did not say they can't use trailers to go over core capacity….he said trailers were unsafe and painted the scenario of what if a tornado should hit. That had nothing to do with "core capacity"….he tried to get cute and called out Savage and Hodges with "who's children would you have in the trailers should a tornado hit" (paraphrasing)….he NEVER linked the use of trailers with Core Capacity
I'm not even going to attempt to read your response until you can properly learn how to use a quote button.
 
Old 01-27-2014, 01:24 PM
 
141 posts, read 171,905 times
Reputation: 63
Quote:
Originally Posted by RDB1905 View Post
Build New Schools
Bottom-line, nobody could have predicted what happened in 08-09, if they could have, everyone would have sold their homes and moved into rentals. What we seem to be dealing with now is an after affect from then compounded by all growth explosion that has happened (again) in the last couple years, so not only do they need to fix the previous redistricting, they have to expand it, thus the magnitude of it all.

RDB….here is the problem with that….in 2008, the Weddington cluster was busting at the seams, so they opened the MR cluster….2 yrs later, the opened the Cutty cluster. Some families, in the space of 3 yrs, went to all 3 clusters (do you really think that is a good situation) This new school "Cuthbertson" was opened and i believe for the first time ever in NC, it achieved "School of Excellence" in its first year (keep me honest on that). Now you want to move those people who basically built Cutty into what it is to lower performing schools, 2.5 times as far away for……get this……this is truly unbelievable……..are you ready….FOR PEOPLE THAT ARENT EVEN HERE YET!!!!!!!!!!!!! Yes, thats right…..Cuthbertson HS will go down to i believe (again, keep me honest) around 75% capacity. so the BOE is basically saying to a lot of the families that opened and built Cutty "Good job, but we are giving away your spots to……ready for this again….FOR PEOPLE THAT DONT EVEN LIVE HERE YET"!!!!!!!!!….but don't fret people, we will put your kids on a bus ride twice as long and the schools we are sending you too are about 1/2 as good on the rating scale….SUCH A DEAL!!!!!!!!!

lol, unbelievable if you don't think people would be upset
 
Old 01-27-2014, 01:26 PM
 
141 posts, read 171,905 times
Reputation: 63
Quote:
Originally Posted by cc0789 View Post
I'm not even going to attempt to read your response until you can properly learn how to use a quote button.
i guess reading comprehension is too much to expect from you….actually you don't have to reply, you already think Stewarts stance on trailers is due to Core Capacity, when in fact he NEVER mentioned core capacity in his response to Savage and Hodges….but you keep "assuming"
 
Old 01-27-2014, 01:31 PM
 
397 posts, read 579,408 times
Reputation: 284
Quote:
Originally Posted by First and Ten View Post
cc0789
Senior Member
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Join Date: Jan 2010
1,157 posts, read 694,104 times
Reputation: 1763

Quote:

Its not that they can't use trailers, its that they can't to go over core capacity. There is a big difference with getting two trailers worth of students into a school during a tornado, and getting 27. Do you want your kid to be the last kid in line in trailer #27? I don't. And it is just not ideal, so you reduce it to the best of your ability. Whats the point of protecting 90 percent of your students with locked doors, armed police officers, and requesting ids and background checks for visitors, when you literally have trailer kids roaming next to parking lots when they have to go pee?

NO, absolutely wrong….he did not say they can't use trailers to go over core capacity….he said trailers were unsafe and painted the scenario of what if a tornado should hit. That had nothing to do with "core capacity"….he tried to get cute and called out Savage and Hodges with "who's children would you have in the trailers should a tornado hit" (paraphrasing)….he NEVER linked the use of trailers with Core Capacity

You can't use trailers to go over core capacity. No matter what was implied or said or interpreted. The addition of trailers only applies to bringing a school up to the max number with respect to this core capacity. I agree with cc on this one. His question was more than likely meant to imply whose children are you going to place in the trailer all the way at the back of a crowded lot when something bad goes down and they need to head inside. (((((not mine)))))
 
Old 01-27-2014, 01:35 PM
 
1,031 posts, read 2,145,028 times
Reputation: 521
Quote:
Originally Posted by TooLogical View Post
I'm curious to hear this boards views on the options the BOE presented last week. We don't all agree, but everyone here offers a lot of great discussion, intelligent opinion, and information that makes for a good debate. We can do an informal poll.

Please pick your top four. Don't rank them and pick ONLY FOUR. No comments or opinions about why you picked them. Just pick 4. When we have enough responses I'll post totals and then we can discuss. I wonder if there are any that we collectively agree upon.

- Multi-Track (4 year round programs)
- Split-Track (half days)
- Change K-5 to K-6
- Build New Schools
- Build Additions to Schools
- Choice Schools/Programs
- Leave Caps
- Add Mobile Classrooms
- Redistrict

Thanks!
1.Choice- The BOE and Dr. Ellis missed a tremendous opportunity to shape the ENTIRE system into a 1st rate educational system that would benefit ALL students without penalizing those that just happen to live in a certain geographic area. Sadly, they going with the cheapest option they could gin up. Ultimately they'll get what they paid for.
2. Multi Track - May be difficult from a scheduling standpoint, but would keep consistency in place.
3. Change K-5 to K-6 easily done, low cost, would take care of a good portion of the overcrowding problems in some (albeit not all) schools. Saying that this is too hard, is pretty stupid. If they couldn't make this work, somebody needs a new job.
4. Mobile Classrooms - Been in existence forever, conveniently now have been called unsafe. If they won't use them to ease overcrowding for until their so-called bubble passes, then take the all out of every school and never use them again. Keep the youngest kids out of them though.
 
Old 01-27-2014, 01:39 PM
 
397 posts, read 518,768 times
Reputation: 201
So I'm clear...what you are saying is you can't add capacity by adding trailers. If a school is slated for 500 kids, that is it. Kinda like the fire marshall You can't make it 700 with 6 additional trailers...correct?

First and Ten...I get it on the "FOR PEOPLE NET EVEN HERE YET!!!"-thingee. I'm sure that stinks.
 
Old 01-27-2014, 01:46 PM
 
1,226 posts, read 2,051,610 times
Reputation: 1864
Quote:
Originally Posted by jlat View Post
1.Choice- The BOE and Dr. Ellis missed a tremendous opportunity to shape the ENTIRE system into a 1st rate educational system that would benefit ALL students without penalizing those that just happen to live in a certain geographic area. Sadly, they going with the cheapest option they could gin up. Ultimately they'll get what they paid for.
2. Multi Track - May be difficult from a scheduling standpoint, but would keep consistency in place.
3. Change K-5 to K-6 easily done, low cost, would take care of a good portion of the overcrowding problems in some (albeit not all) schools. Saying that this is too hard, is pretty stupid. If they couldn't make this work, somebody needs a new job.
4. Mobile Classrooms - Been in existence forever, conveniently now have been called unsafe. If they won't use them to ease overcrowding for until their so-called bubble passes, then take the all out of every school and never use them again. Keep the youngest kids out of them though.
when you say mobile classroom, do you mean use them to increase the population ABOVE core capacity? Or do you mean using them up to core capacity? I think those are two distinct options, and while I'm opposed to the former entirely, I do think that it needs to be done as a means to temporarily handle "bubbles", if you will, within core capacity.
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