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Old 01-29-2014, 07:48 AM
 
631 posts, read 736,245 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WaxhawMike View Post
Wow, how often can they get it wrong and we just suck it up and hope that it's right the next time?

http://fpc.ucps.k12.nc.us/documents/...cast012913.pdf

Yeah, let's jump on board with redistricting because this time it' really, especially, double dog right
Thanks for posting that one. I think its a good example as you pointed out that their predictions can be flawed. Even within a year. That's why everyone is up in arms about the the disconnect between the BOE, County and Towns on trying to manage the growth.

Per the other posts about new houses already going up, it's no wonder they are keeping some schools under their full utilization. For example, they were caught off guard with Kensington (194) and CMS (104) this year.

I like that they stopped using just a capacity number (last Jan) and now use watch levels and caps. That actually keeps more kids in their schools by not reacting to the capacity numbers. There would be a lot more than 5800 students moving otherwise.

Bottom line, predictions aren't 100% accurate. I don't know how many kids, what ages, and if they go public or private if a family buys my neighbors house. Or if the family with 5 kids suddenly gets transferred to another state.

 
Old 01-29-2014, 07:53 AM
 
2,082 posts, read 3,567,537 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by First and Ten View Post
Thats very interesting Denver….Most of the lots you listed are in Marvin territory, looks like their little slice of heaven could be upset….If a Marvin subdivision got redistricted to say, one of the "other" schools, could you imagine the outrage? wow, the earth may actually stop spinning on its axis if that happened
That is true for every subdivision in UC that is proposed for redistricting...what is you point???

Is this just a cheap shot at Marvin? They too have a couple of subdivisions proposed for redistricting and of course, like everybody else, they are not happy, why would they be happy to uproot their kids?
 
Old 01-29-2014, 07:53 AM
 
141 posts, read 171,837 times
Reputation: 63
Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeyKid View Post
Mike - you have to be a bit reasonable here... I'm going out on a limb and assume you drive around the area. How do you not see what's going on around you with homes coming up out of the ground like mad? How does one forecast such things? So you're surprised that 12 month old forecast is off? I sure see a big difference from 12 months ago.

They're been talking about this since last year... it only feels like it's happening fast because the rubber is now meeting the road. Your stakeholder comment scares me... I don't suspect that the BOE will be able to PM their way out of this mess.

They need to build new schools and they need to relieve Cuthbertson.
Mikey, i know we haven't agreed much, but i do agree about the new schools to relieve the Cuthbertson cluster….i find it almost comical that they will consider "Redistricting" for future growth (case in point, CHS will be way under capacity with the plans that Lawson will fill it) but they push back on building new schools for future growth….It would seem apparent that you would need 2 clusters. One in the Porter Ridge area to help alleviate PR and possibly SV and one in the Waxhaw area to possibly help with the Marvin/Cuthbertson issue….iI am sure i will get pounded for suggesting this, so let the comments fly
 
Old 01-29-2014, 07:55 AM
 
2,082 posts, read 3,567,537 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by First and Ten View Post
Mikey, i know we haven't agreed much, but i do agree about the new schools to relieve the Cuthbertson cluster….i find it almost comical that they will consider "Redistricting" for future growth (case in point, CHS will be way under capacity with the plans that Lawson will fill it) but they push back on building new schools for future growth….It would seem apparent that you would need 2 clusters. One in the Porter Ridge area to help alleviate PR and possibly SV and one in the Waxhaw area to possibly help with the Marvin/Cuthbertson issue….iI am sure i will get pounded for suggesting this, so let the comments fly
We can agree here, the only true solution is to built new schools, now.
 
Old 01-29-2014, 07:59 AM
 
141 posts, read 171,837 times
Reputation: 63
Quote:
Originally Posted by 28173 View Post
That is true for every subdivision in UC that is proposed for redistricting...what is you point???

Is this just a cheap shot at Marvin? They too have a couple of subdivisions proposed for redistricting and of course, like everybody else, they are not happy, why would they be happy to uproot their kids?
i wouldn't call it a "cheap shot"….i was being a bit sarcastic….i could have said worse if i wanted it to be considered a cheap shot….the point i can't get past is they are doing this redistricting and the building is still going, and going hard….so in theory, within 2 or 3 yrs, we are going to be at this same point we are at now. Then some brainiac will say, we need new schools. they will build them and redistrict families AGAIN….keep me honest, isn't the definition of insanity doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result? That is what they seem to be doing with redistricting
 
Old 01-29-2014, 08:06 AM
 
631 posts, read 736,245 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 28173 View Post
We can agree here, the only true solution is to built new schools, now.
I'll "third" that proposal! Unfortunately, it's impossible to have them in place this fall. The money doesn't exist right now. That's a BOCC/BOE mess and ultimately could come to us as a bond referendum. That wouldn't be until fall at the earliest. Then it will take 2-3 years to build the schools. So we're not going to have them until fall 2017 at least. I'm not sure a bond would even pass right now. Sure, it would have 75% approval in the impacted areas, but not throughout the rest of the county.
 
Old 01-29-2014, 08:09 AM
 
141 posts, read 171,837 times
Reputation: 63
Quote:
Originally Posted by TooLogical View Post
I'll "third" that proposal! Unfortunately, it's impossible to have them in place this fall. The money doesn't exist right now. That's a BOCC/BOE mess and ultimately could come to us as a bond referendum. That wouldn't be until fall at the earliest. Then it will take 2-3 years to build the schools. So we're not going to have them until fall 2017 at least. I'm not sure a bond would even pass right now. Sure, it would have 75% approval in the impacted areas, but not throughout the rest of the county.
Question….how did they get the funding to build the Marvin and Cuthbertson clusters….was that also a bond referendum and did that pass or did they secure funds by some other means?
 
Old 01-29-2014, 08:28 AM
 
631 posts, read 736,245 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by First and Ten View Post
Question….how did they get the funding to build the Marvin and Cuthbertson clusters….was that also a bond referendum and did that pass or did they secure funds by some other means?
Yet another question you already know the answer to and expect it to apply to every situation.

That did pass via a referendum in a different time with different circumstances. Market was booming, unemployment was low, and I'd venture to say the student to school ratio was a lot higher. Wish I had the data around that.

Today, the market is starting to pick back up, but many are leery and recovering from the housing crash. Most important, there is room in our current schools.

Question... do you think the BOCC will allow a referendum today.... are they the same commissioners that were in place during the last one... is this the same school board that proposed those new schools?
 
Old 01-29-2014, 08:34 AM
 
141 posts, read 171,837 times
Reputation: 63
Quote:
Originally Posted by TooLogical View Post
Yet another question you already know the answer to and expect it to apply to every situation.

That did pass via a referendum in a different time with different circumstances. Market was booming, unemployment was low, and I'd venture to say the student to school ratio was a lot higher. Wish I had the data around that.

Today, the market is starting to pick back up, but many are leery and recovering from the housing crash. Most important, there is room in our current schools.

Question... do you think the BOCC will allow a referendum today.... are they the same commissioners that were in place during the last one... is this the same school board that proposed those new schools?


Following your logic about room in other schools, back then, there was room in Forest Hills and Parkwood….So if that is the "most important" criteria (your words) why weren't people redistricted to Parkwood and FH back then, as you are proposing to do today?
 
Old 01-29-2014, 08:46 AM
 
631 posts, read 736,245 times
Reputation: 305
Quote:
Originally Posted by First and Ten View Post
Following your logic about room in other schools, back then, there was room in Forest Hills and Parkwood….So if that is the "most important" criteria (your words) why weren't people redistricted to Parkwood and FH back then, as you are proposing to do today?
You want new schools. I get it. OK... how do you propose they fund it, where will they be built and what subdivisions will you bus, uproot, relocate all those kids to while breaking up their friendships and neighborhoods?

You're going to have to get the BOE to agree, so here's a good opportunity to practice that proposal.
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