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Old 05-15-2014, 08:57 PM
 
Location: Union County
5,783 posts, read 8,410,081 times
Reputation: 4818

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Quote:
Originally Posted by TooLogical View Post
We'll see how it all plays out over time, but as of now there could still be room.

Back in Sept, they used 44736 as their total capacity for the 20-day numbers. This was before the watch and cap levels came out. The watch levels were set at 50236.

System Capacity = 44736
System Watch = 50236

2014-2015 = 42063 kids = 84% of Watch = 94% of Capacity
2018-2019 = 43734 kids = 87% of Watch = 98% of Capacity

We're pushing the limits now, so migration and new development will be critical to track. Now according to some people, everyone will leave and go to charters and private schools, so we definitely won't need any new/expanded schools.
We all operate under our own pretexts and (mis)conceptions... It's the nature of being human. Nobody should pretend that population forecasting is a science - it's like actuarial voodoo. I've mentioned before that some of us will be watching those 20 day ADM to see how close Webb gets with his forecast next year. We'll know those numbers before we go to the ballots in November, which should make it extra interesting.

The only thing that could stop the inevitability of building more or adding on to existing schools is RE coming to a screeching halt. It doesn't appear that's anywhere close to happening according to MLS and a drive through the county to see the clearing and construction going on. Even if we can put off capital improvements 5 years (as the BOE instructed UCPS administration to plan for with this redistricting), money needs to get sunk into the aging schools. Plus we still have paper to pay off on the new schools.

 
Old 05-15-2014, 09:43 PM
 
Location: Wesley Chapel
51 posts, read 63,626 times
Reputation: 36
Quote:
Originally Posted by BubbaHelms View Post
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Yes, but some schools are always going to be older and some newer. The facilities are never going to be exactly equal. That being said, they should all be properly maintained and have the same technology, athletic fields, tracks, etc.

Trust me. I'm not dismissive of the families at the older schools. The people at the older schools didn't create nearly the uproar over facilities as those against redistricting have created. They are more cost conscious and satisfied with what they have as long as it is maintained. I think there is a different expectation for facilities in different areas of the county. However, I think the parents and students at the older schools have the expectation that they have the same courses as provided at the newer schools.
Bubba, I agree with a lot of what you just said. However, i have spoken to many families in Parkwood, Sun Valley, Western Union, Monroe etc... And I have heard many tell me that they have tried for years to get anyone from the School Admin to listen and their concerns have fallen on deaf ears until now.
 
Old 05-16-2014, 06:40 AM
 
527 posts, read 636,450 times
Reputation: 267
Quote:
Originally Posted by BubbaHelms View Post
If you bothered to read what I said, you would know I didn't say we should build or add-on now. I said we should redistrict, watch capacity and then expand when we need to do so.
Good plan
 
Old 05-16-2014, 06:48 AM
 
397 posts, read 518,292 times
Reputation: 201
The last thing you wnat to do it is raise taxes, go on a building spree and then have tons of empty schools...the taxes don't go when they board the schools up.
 
Old 05-16-2014, 07:38 AM
 
547 posts, read 535,486 times
Reputation: 218
Quote:
Originally Posted by raithfan View Post
The last thing you wnat to do it is raise taxes, go on a building spree and then have tons of empty schools...the taxes don't go when they board the schools up.
Yes. That is what the current numbers we are working with suggest could happen. That is why we have to redistrict and watch. The BOE did the smart thing. They are trying to look out for the citizens. BOE members have no ulterior motives for this redistricting. Outside, disinterested parties would have reached the same conclusion given that set of data.
 
Old 05-16-2014, 08:18 AM
 
527 posts, read 636,450 times
Reputation: 267
Quote:
Originally Posted by BubbaHelms View Post
The BOE did the smart thing. They are trying to look out for the citizens. BOE members have no ulterior motives for this redistricting. Outside, disinterested parties would have reached the same conclusion given that set of data.
Yet the single outside, disinterested party, in fact did not reach the same conclusion. No need to rehash the various discussions that some parents had with McKibben, it's been discussed here before.

Show the capacity, watch, and cap numbers to an industrial engineer and they are going to laugh you out of the room.
 
Old 05-16-2014, 08:31 AM
 
397 posts, read 518,292 times
Reputation: 201
Quote:
Originally Posted by WaxhawMike View Post
Yet the single outside, disinterested party, in fact did not reach the same conclusion. No need to rehash the various discussions that some parents had with McKibben, it's been discussed here before.

Show the capacity, watch, and cap numbers to an industrial engineer and they are going to laugh you out of the room.
Yes Mike, we need to take any McKibben stories out of the mix because everyone has a different story. (that wasn't meant to be sarcastic even though it may read that way...)
 
Old 05-16-2014, 09:58 AM
 
44,339 posts, read 17,695,102 times
Reputation: 18664
Quote:
Originally Posted by WaxhawMike View Post
......

Show the capacity, watch, and cap numbers to an industrial engineer and they are going to laugh you out of the room.
A good engineer will take the parameters given to him and present you with a list of options that will solve the problem along with the costs of each option. A really good engineer will also tell you if the data you have supplied is worthwhile or worthless.

Of course if the problem to be solved is to stop the redistricting vs dealing with over capacity, the data will be evaluated in quite differently. I'm guessing the engineer would be much more pragmatic about it over the motivations of a lay person who is involved.
 
Old 05-16-2014, 12:26 PM
 
124 posts, read 139,161 times
Reputation: 111
Quote:
Originally Posted by SMAHER View Post
Bubba, I agree with a lot of what you just said. However, i have spoken to many families in Parkwood, Sun Valley, Western Union, Monroe etc... And I have heard many tell me that they have tried for years to get anyone from the School Admin to listen and their concerns have fallen on deaf ears until now.
You are correct Sean. One thing I have to laugh about tho when I hear how the parents from the western part of the county are taking credit for bringing the condition of the older schools to the forefront and how parents from the eastern part of the county should be thanking them. Did it ever occur to them to stop for one minute and think that perhaps when they were once again asking for the building of new schools in the west or adding onto them or adding MCR's that that fired up the parents whose children are in these older schools to the point that they too were calling their district reps, emailing them, meeting with them, snail mailing them and asking that their schools be repaired? I for one was emailing them and in contact with them, I know a host of others that were also emailing, calling, meeting with their district reps asking once again that their schools be repaired. The inequity of where the money has been spent for the past 10-15 years is appalling to say the least. It's often said by the anti-redistricting crowd that the BOE woke a "sleeping giant", perhaps they did and perhaps they are thinking of the wrong "sleeping giant" that was indeed awoken. Just because they didn't see parents at the BOE meetings standing up and screaming about it doesn't mean there wasn't an active campaign going on behind the scenes. I truly believe the only reason some of the parents (note I said some) in the west were screaming about older school conditions is simply because they didn't want their children going there and thought that would be a good reason to halt the redistricting.

I wouldn't say that those in the east are more cost conscious and satisfied as long as the buildings were maintained because let's face it those buildings were not maintained as they should have been, leaking roofs, fire alarms that don't work, non-ADA compliance, peeling paint, holes in tracks, etcetc doesn't exactly show they were maintained. There were 23 schools built in the west while maintenance at the older schools suffered, there is no denying that. I'm not blaming people in the west at all, they had to be built due to growth but when you have seats in other schools that can be utilized for the time being instead of spending money on new schools once again then that's the route to go. Was the redistricting too big? Perhaps, but only time will tell, all you have to do is drive through the western part of the county and see all the building going on once again to know that those schools were going to be hard pressed as far as capacity goes in a year or so. Only time will tell.
 
Old 05-16-2014, 02:12 PM
 
Location: Wesley Chapel
51 posts, read 63,626 times
Reputation: 36
Quote:
Originally Posted by UCTaxPayer View Post
You are correct Sean. One thing I have to laugh about tho when I hear how the parents from the western part of the county are taking credit for bringing the condition of the older schools to the forefront and how parents from the eastern part of the county should be thanking them. Did it ever occur to them to stop for one minute and think that perhaps when they were once again asking for the building of new schools in the west or adding onto them or adding MCR's that that fired up the parents whose children are in these older schools to the point that they too were calling their district reps, emailing them, meeting with them, snail mailing them and asking that their schools be repaired? I for one was emailing them and in contact with them, I know a host of others that were also emailing, calling, meeting with their district reps asking once again that their schools be repaired. The inequity of where the money has been spent for the past 10-15 years is appalling to say the least. It's often said by the anti-redistricting crowd that the BOE woke a "sleeping giant", perhaps they did and perhaps they are thinking of the wrong "sleeping giant" that was indeed awoken. Just because they didn't see parents at the BOE meetings standing up and screaming about it doesn't mean there wasn't an active campaign going on behind the scenes. I truly believe the only reason some of the parents (note I said some) in the west were screaming about older school conditions is simply because they didn't want their children going there and thought that would be a good reason to halt the redistricting.

I wouldn't say that those in the east are more cost conscious and satisfied as long as the buildings were maintained because let's face it those buildings were not maintained as they should have been, leaking roofs, fire alarms that don't work, non-ADA compliance, peeling paint, holes in tracks, etcetc doesn't exactly show they were maintained. There were 23 schools built in the west while maintenance at the older schools suffered, there is no denying that. I'm not blaming people in the west at all, they had to be built due to growth but when you have seats in other schools that can be utilized for the time being instead of spending money on new schools once again then that's the route to go. Was the redistricting too big? Perhaps, but only time will tell, all you have to do is drive through the western part of the county and see all the building going on once again to know that those schools were going to be hard pressed as far as capacity goes in a year or so. Only time will tell.
UC TaxPayer, "Awaking a sleeping giant" in my view was not parents on the West or anti-redistrict parents - it was ALL parents. Also, we agree on many things and maybe some parents take credit for the west bringing attention to the East, but that is not the case in my view. No one should take credit for an issue that deals with negligence. Has the issue come to the forefront more so now because of the redistrict - of course- but that is because more people are aware now. More people make for more public review.

Also, I keep hearing from time to time about the parents on the West that fought for or asked for new Schools to be built in the West. In every case I am sure that may be true to some degree, bit I can assure you that when my family, my community and neighboring communities belonged to Weddington and the "New" school was being built at Cuthbertson - WE didn't ask for it or want it. We fought to stay at Weddington, because we didn't want to move to a new school. Once there we worked hard to make it the best we can. I don't recall the issues when MR was built but I do remember that Weddington Families that we knew did not want to go to the new School either. Maybe I am naive on this issue but it was always my thought process that UCPS and the BOE purchased the land and locations of New Schools and that they determined where New Schools would go and who would go to them. I don't recall UCPS ever asking me If I wanted to have a NEW school built and would I like to leave my school to go to the new one. So YES, new schools were built in the West and growth had a lot to do with that, but I never asked for a NEW school, never asked to go to the New School and didn't want to go to another school this time either. Its not about new or old for me, its about making a place your own, about taking pride, volunteering and developing a community spirit.

Were we forced to move against our will and desire from Weddington to Cuthbertson - Yes. Did we try to stop that move - Yes. Were unsuccessful in stoping our move to the NEW school - Yes. Once there did we embrace Cuthbertson and help build that school up - YES.

Were we against the redistrict in the form that it was presented - YES. Were we against being moved from Cuthbertson to Sun valley - Yes. Did we try and stop the move - Yes. Were unsuccessful in stopping our move from Cuthbertson to Sun Valley - Yes. Have we already begun to embrace Sun valley - Yes. Will we once there try to help build that school up - Yes.

I can only speak for my family and the friends that I know share the same thoughts, but my kids and my family will embrace Sun valley as much as we Embraced Cuthbertson. Its being forced to move, to the loss of relationships, to the loss of what we help build as volunteers - That's the reason my family and so many others do not like the redistrict. When a group of 9 individuals can alter the life plans of 5,800 people on a whim because they want to without regulation - that's the issue for me. Not what school, or test grades etc...

I hope that made some sense to the point I was trying to make.
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