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Old 09-22-2015, 08:24 AM
 
1,985 posts, read 1,394,156 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Big Aristotle View Post
How so?

http://www.city-data.com/crime/crime...-Carolina.html

Don't get me wrong, 1 is too many but where are y'all getting this so-called factual data?

If you read the thread you would see where I cited and explained any number or trend I've mentioned. I've called out a bunch of others that not backing up any of their claims. Check out page 4. Heck, read it all if you want a full background.

The people claiming there is an increase in homicide are specifically limiting their view to the last 5 years and not considering the much higher rates in the previous ones. They are also limiting their view to homicide and not considering all violent crimes, since doing so wouldn't be consistent with their opinion that the sky is falling.

There is a true science behind all of this in statistics to understand what is "significant" but that point is lost on all of the people freaking out. Just because you read a lot of bad news in the paper doesn't mean our city is falling apart. Just because there are more murders in 2015 doesn't mean there will continue to be more. I don't have my head in the sand. The knee jerk reaction and confirmation bias is strong here.

I've been clear that each crime is a tragedy and that it IS important to look at near term trends. But when you look only at near term trends you can lose perspective. Charlotte is no where near as dangerous from a violent crime or homicide perspective as it has been in the past.

Aside from all of the arguing over the data - the real paradox is that experts agree that we don't even completely understand WHY some years are spikes or even why the rate decreased as large as it did between 1995-2005. There are guesses and understood factors but still much unknown. Anyone claiming to have a total 100% sure answer of what the solution is, is likely just confirming their own view of what's wrong with America.

The murders this weekend weren't gang violence but that part is conveniently left out. However when it is gang violence you would think we're being overrun. No one has mentioned any data to support the idea that gang violence is increasing but we have heard a lot of claims that it has. Also, the crimes we've heard about on this thread are spread ALL over Charlotte to ALL kinds of people, but we hear a lot of generalizations that don't fit the stories we're reading. It's all confirming the messed up perspective these people have. A perspective built by absorbing sensational, fear based news that cashing in on their inherent fear of a certain type of people.
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Old 09-22-2015, 08:32 AM
 
1,985 posts, read 1,394,156 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Wolf Howl View Post
So there's this story the local NBC station did today on the rise of gang violence in one of Charlotte's neighboring cities (Salisbury). Rising gang activity is probably still a myth to some.

Also, while we're at it, it's not a 1 or 2 year trend here Esse, it's a FIVE year trend based on the numbers you provided. You talk about posters "inflating" the meaning while you are doing exactly the opposite by continuing to say it's not a trend or at worst just a bad "year" when that is clearly not the case, supported by actual facts.
One situation is dealing with a long term trend (more data) while one is dealing with a short term trend (less data). Which one do you think is more important to consider?

I've consistently noted that both trends are important to recognize, but that the conclusion we draw from them is where we need to be careful. I've never claimed it's "not a trend", but I have consistently refuted posters suggestions that it is indicative of something greater.

People posting 'certainly seems to be an issue" is the epitome of this flawed logic.

I agree with you that we need to be aware of the short term trend. My point is that it needs to be considered within context of the long one as well! Removing the larger picture is misleading! Don't rely on the news to do this for you, because they won't! It isn't as interesting of a story and doesn't grab your attention as well. They are cashing in on your intrinsic fear of others! Especially guys in dreads - those are the REAL bad ones - I know because I watched the CPI security commercial and saw him!
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Old 09-22-2015, 09:13 AM
 
Location: Mooresville, NC
2,149 posts, read 2,624,012 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Essequamvideri View Post
One situation is dealing with a long term trend (more data) while one is dealing with a short term trend (less data). Which one do you think is more important to consider?

I've consistently noted that both trends are important to recognize, but that the conclusion we draw from them is where we need to be careful. I've never claimed it's "not a trend", but I have consistently refuted posters suggestions that it is indicative of something greater.

People posting 'certainly seems to be an issue" is the epitome of this flawed logic.

I agree with you that we need to be aware of the short term trend. My point is that it needs to be considered within context of the long one as well! Removing the larger picture is misleading! Don't rely on the news to do this for you, because they won't! It isn't as interesting of a story and doesn't grab your attention as well. They are cashing in on your intrinsic fear of others! Especially guys in dreads - those are the REAL bad ones - I know because I watched the CPI security commercial and saw him!
I think we disagree on what "short term" is. I do not deem 5 years trending in a negative direction in terms of violent crimes (not just homicides), as short term at all. Saying the first 9 months in 2015 are the worst everrrrr and the sky is falling would be very short term and based on paranoia. A long term trend downward is great but you don't ignore or minimize your current status because you used to be worse off. An effective leader would be very concerned about what we're seeing in the last 5 years and working to reverse that trend, not rest on their laurels knowing that we're still better than we were in the 90's.

Funny you should mention those CPI commercials, I'd challenge you to actually find one that shows a person of any color, aside from white, committing the crime. Could you imagine the outrage if it was reversed and all their videos only showed Blacks or Hispanics breaking into your house? I only bring that up since you pointed it out and "my fear" of others, especially those in "dreads". Nothing factual there either in your assumption of me nor your usage of CPI as the example.
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Old 09-22-2015, 09:20 AM
 
Location: Southport
4,639 posts, read 4,810,855 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Wolf Howl View Post
I think we disagree on what "short term" is. I do not deem 5 years trending in a negative direction in terms of violent crimes (not just homicides), as short term at all. Saying the first 9 months in 2015 are the worst everrrrr and the sky is falling would be very short term and based on paranoia. A long term trend downward is great but you don't ignore or minimize your current status because you used to be worse off. An effective leader would be very concerned about what we're seeing in the last 5 years and working to reverse that trend, not rest on their laurels knowing that we're still better than we were in the 90's.
Agree with this completely. 5 years is not a short term trend. Its great that crime rates are down from 20 years ago, but ignoring more recent trends is foolhardy.
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Old 09-22-2015, 09:36 AM
 
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An effective leader would take all facts into consideration for sure. No one is suggesting 'resting on laurels'. They would also:

look at per capita rates instead of just total counts
look at more statistics than just homicide
look at variables aside from incidence that may influence rates

One thing they certainly would not do, is use our local news as a source of information. It's ridiculous how misleading their stories are by not considering overall themes or doing any independent research. It's a chicken:egg argument I guess because people are more interested in the scary headline and I can't blame them for searching for ratings.

I've told you over and over that our best leaders can't take full credit for the spike or dip. I think there are a lot of unknowns.

As for the CPI commercial mention, I'm always up for a challenge: Here's your token dread dude in the all-time classic fear scenario of a lily white girl being potentially harmed.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dh_0R9dPhE0

You would be right if you said the recent ones don't include Blacks or Hispanics as the aggressors. But I do win your challenge. You can pay me back by admitting I was right and that my statement was based on fact. Imagine the outrage indeed. I'm guessing you will not, and that's ok too. There is a long history of white fear of black males in particular, but I think our society is only very slowly coming to understand the history of that fear and it's implications.
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Old 09-22-2015, 09:39 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by carolinadawg2 View Post
Agree with this completely. 5 years is not a short term trend. Its great that crime rates are down from 20 years ago, but ignoring more recent trends is foolhardy.
Ignoring per capita rates is equally foolhardy. The city is growing.
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Old 09-22-2015, 09:48 AM
 
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Fear Of The Black Man: How Racial Bias Could Affect Crime, Labor Rates : NPR

To be clear: Information like this doesn't remove the fact that their are many black criminals in America. But to ignore racial bias as an inflating factor in all of this is ignorant.

We live in a country with the highest % of incarceration, and fear is just as prevalent as ever. At some point you have to ask yourself what our community's values have to do with this scenario instead of constantly blaming others. We all have much more in common with the neighbors going through struggles with domestic violence and abuse, poverty, addiction, mental health etc., but we talk about them as if they have created all of their own problems. The lack of empathy is astounding. Yes, there are serious issues and poor decisions mixed along with it, all but to claim it is 100% entirely one way or another is irrational and out of touch with reality.

I would really encourage any of you skeptics to get into the communities for some service if you doubt me. The people in any crime ridden areas of Charlotte are more like you than you realize.

Love thy neighbor.
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Old 09-22-2015, 10:23 AM
 
1,985 posts, read 1,394,156 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by carolinadawg2 View Post
Agree with this completely. 5 years is not a short term trend. Its great that crime rates are down from 20 years ago, but ignoring more recent trends is foolhardy.

BTW - the 5 year trend in violent crimes is actually showing a reduction, not an increase. On page 4 I shared the counts through 2013 that we had, and they show a reduction in the last 5 years.

The homicide one is the one that fits the fear propaganda campaign. But again, this statistic on it's own isn't enough to make a conclusion. Just because the trend is showing an improvement doesn't mean everything is perfect.
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Old 09-22-2015, 08:00 PM
 
Location: Mooresville, NC
2,149 posts, read 2,624,012 times
Reputation: 1670
Quote:
Originally Posted by Essequamvideri View Post
BTW - the 5 year trend in violent crimes is actually showing a reduction, not an increase. On page 4 I shared the counts through 2013 that we had, and they show a reduction in the last 5 years.

The homicide one is the one that fits the fear propaganda campaign. But again, this statistic on it's own isn't enough to make a conclusion. Just because the trend is showing an improvement doesn't mean everything is perfect.
You either don't know how to trend data or you are just really grasping here trying to spin it. From post #38 (could be on different pages for various users), if you trend the violent crime data YOU posted, you will see from 2010 through 2014 it is an increase. When 2015 is over we'll add that and it will be a 6 year INCREASE at that point. That is violent crimes, not just homicides. Again, YOU posted it, I'm using your own data here.

Just as a fun comparison, I pulled the NC DOJ statistics posted for violent crimes from 2008 to 2013 to compare to see if Charlotte was a microcosm of the larger state in seeing crime rise during that period too.

2008 - 42330
2009 - 37260
2010 - 34016
2011 - 33341
2012 - 33985
2013 - 32433

As you can see, the state overall is trending nicely down in violent crime over those 6 years while Charlotte is headed in the wrong direction since 2010. So now we have Charlotte as an outlier to a larger dataset, over a significant period of time and I'm sure we'll still hear about how it's still better than it was 20 years ago.

I'm really not interested in turning this into a black vs. white debate. I'm only looking at statistics, I have no idea who committed those crimes although it would be very interesting from a statistical model perspective to dive into that but I digress (unless someone can find the data!).

Congrats on finding the one commercial CPI did that involved a person of color, although it's significant to point out that it also still included a white person as committing the crime too. Based on their commercials I should expect a hoodie wearing white guy that doesn't shave to bust through my door any moment now.
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Old 09-22-2015, 09:01 PM
 
1,985 posts, read 1,394,156 times
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One upside of all of this is that it seems I have introduced you to the concept of source credibility. I'm glad you pulled information from ncdoj.gov. This is the same source I cited when I was trying to figure out if all of the complaints about city crime were legitimate or not. And now we're even wading into statistical skills. Good stuff.

The last five years of violent crime in Mecklenburg county showed:

2010 - 4884
2011 - 4784
2012 - 5238
2013 - 5094
2014 - 5103

Does this outpace population growth? Should it? Does it matter that there are YOY decreases in some of the years? How do you determine if a spike or dip is statistically significant? I really recommend you dig deeper. This is good for you.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statistical_significance

You told me to find one commercial and I did. And no worries about being scared of a white guy in a hoodie. We both know who you're really scared of. It's that rampant gang violence I've heard so much about on the news.
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