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Old 09-06-2017, 10:13 AM
 
631 posts, read 738,317 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by getatag View Post
It's been very quiet on the UCPS front. (That's probably a good sign.)

There have been a few meetings, any updates.rumors coming out of committee or BOE?

Are they moving students to relieve over crowding?

Are they moving students to forestall closing schools when the predicted student population decline begins?

Rumor has it that commissioners would prefer not reassigning students for the next two years or so. Why would they care when a reassignment takes place?
I watched a few of the meetings online and looked at the maps. A big plus for the openness of it all, as they are even posting emails online so everyone can see the feedback.

If McKibbon can keep everyone on track to optimize utilization it could be ok, but his target is around 80-90% capacity and the committee is already trying to stuff the sardines back above 100% for the big 3. The guy driving the process seems good and working with facts. Hope he can keep emotions at bay. Some of the current options impact more kids than the last go-around.

They need to keep an eye on where all the committee members live and how they are realigning themselves though. Some neighborhood boundaries (not cluster boundaries) have been adjusted, such as grouping some neighborhoods together, or splitting others up based on roads and traffic patterns. St Johns Forrest and Villages of Wesley Chapel were grouped side by side, someone split them up for the mapping exercises, and now one maps to Weddington and the other stays in Monroe in 4 of the 5 options. Should be no surprise that a committee member lives in the hood moved to Wedd.

Now that's an interesting rumor on the commissioners, Tag. Must be some developers that have plans for their property.
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Old 09-06-2017, 10:59 AM
 
2,201 posts, read 2,383,114 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TooLogical View Post
I watched a few of the meetings online and looked at the maps. A big plus for the openness of it all, as they are even posting emails online so everyone can see the feedback.

If McKibbon can keep everyone on track to optimize utilization it could be ok, but his target is around 80-90% capacity and the committee is already trying to stuff the sardines back above 100% for the big 3. The guy driving the process seems good and working with facts. Hope he can keep emotions at bay. Some of the current options impact more kids than the last go-around.

They need to keep an eye on where all the committee members live and how they are realigning themselves though. Some neighborhood boundaries (not cluster boundaries) have been adjusted, such as grouping some neighborhoods together, or splitting others up based on roads and traffic patterns. St Johns Forrest and Villages of Wesley Chapel were grouped side by side, someone split them up for the mapping exercises, and now one maps to Weddington and the other stays in Monroe in 4 of the 5 options. Should be no surprise that a committee member lives in the hood moved to Wedd.

Now that's an interesting rumor on the commissioners, Tag. Must be some developers that have plans for their property.
Yep, simply a rumor, can't find any substantiating proof, so I thought I'd check here.
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Old 09-11-2017, 12:22 PM
 
161 posts, read 153,158 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TooLogical View Post
If McKibbon can keep everyone on track to optimize utilization it could be ok, but his target is around 80-90% capacity and the committee is already trying to stuff the sardines back above 100% for the big 3.
I watched the meetings and heard Mr. Cropper state multiple times that utilization for the "big 3" should be above 100% because of their future enrollment free fall. This is based on a 10 year plan, not a one year plan.
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Old 09-11-2017, 12:29 PM
 
161 posts, read 153,158 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by getatag View Post
Yep, simply a rumor, can't find any substantiating proof, so I thought I'd check here.
A forum that consists of people posting under fake names probably isn't the most reliable source of accurate information. We have all seen what happened during the last redistricting debacle when BOE board members were posting on here and social media with false information. Wasn't there some strange email between John Collins and a Millbridge parent trying to get her to "out" certain citizens on Facebook and City Data? Not exactly my idea of integrity or factual information.
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Old 09-11-2017, 06:37 PM
 
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Rancher, sometimes you learn stuff on here, sometimes you don't, sometimes you just go fishing.
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Old 09-11-2017, 06:40 PM
 
2,201 posts, read 2,383,114 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rancher4life View Post
I watched the meetings and heard Mr. Cropper state multiple times that utilization for the "big 3" should be above 100% because of their future enrollment free fall. This is based on a 10 year plan, not a one year plan.
Why would an educator ever intentionally place students in a learning environment over 100% capacity when there are other choices. Planning for 10 years, but sacrificing the 2 or 3 years of educational opportunities for those students.

Last edited by getatag; 09-11-2017 at 07:17 PM..
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Old 09-11-2017, 09:15 PM
 
5,894 posts, read 7,748,067 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rancher4life View Post
I watched the meetings and heard Mr. Cropper state multiple times that utilization for the "big 3" should be above 100% because of their future enrollment free fall. This is based on a 10 year plan, not a one year plan.
Why would their enrollment have a freefall? Won't people likely continue to move there in order to get their kids into those schools?
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Old 09-12-2017, 06:40 AM
 
1,476 posts, read 1,016,025 times
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Originally Posted by GoPhils View Post
Why would their enrollment have a freefall? Won't people likely continue to move there in order to get their kids into those schools?
Down the road, future cohorts will likely be smaller once new construction slows down. As the neighborhood matures, people's kids move into high school. A neighborhood that was once 80% elementary will become 80% high school, etc... Sure some people move and sell their home to people with young kids, but the amount sold will not necessarily replace what the volume of students used to be. Then as the neighborhood reaches peak maturity you'll have about 25% empty nesters, grandparents, etc... something that doesn't typically exist in a brand new suburban neighborhood.

The other wildcard will be demographics. Union County's largest population groups are 40-54 (25% of the population) and 0-19 (32% of the population), making 57% of the population "Generation X" and their children.

Millennials age 20-35 are only 15% of Union County's population. Whether millennials marry and chose to move to areas like Union County at the same rate as Generation X will be a wildcard factor in future student growth long term. In Generation X, Union County's largest adult demographic, 36% were married by age 32. So far, millennials are only tracking at 26% married by age 32. This will slow household formation and schools being the primary decision maker in home purchasing for a gap period as millennials become a larger and larger share of home purchases, but have families at a later age. If millennials adopt the trends of Baby Boomers and Gen X, the pipeline may remain robust for exurbs.

Last edited by CLT4; 09-12-2017 at 07:09 AM..
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Old 09-12-2017, 09:25 AM
 
5,894 posts, read 7,748,067 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CLT4 View Post
Down the road, future cohorts will likely be smaller once new construction slows down. As the neighborhood matures, people's kids move into high school. A neighborhood that was once 80% elementary will become 80% high school, etc... Sure some people move and sell their home to people with young kids, but the amount sold will not necessarily replace what the volume of students used to be. Then as the neighborhood reaches peak maturity you'll have about 25% empty nesters, grandparents, etc... something that doesn't typically exist in a brand new suburban neighborhood.

The other wildcard will be demographics. Union County's largest population groups are 40-54 (25% of the population) and 0-19 (32% of the population), making 57% of the population "Generation X" and their children.

Millennials age 20-35 are only 15% of Union County's population. Whether millennials marry and chose to move to areas like Union County at the same rate as Generation X will be a wildcard factor in future student growth long term. In Generation X, Union County's largest adult demographic, 36% were married by age 32. So far, millennials are only tracking at 26% married by age 32. This will slow household formation and schools being the primary decision maker in home purchasing for a gap period as millennials become a larger and larger share of home purchases, but have families at a later age. If millennials adopt the trends of Baby Boomers and Gen X, the pipeline may remain robust for exurbs.
Fair enough, but isn't there still a lot of building going on and even a lot of empty land that could be potentially built on down there? I feel like the only thing that will slow down new construction there within the next 5-7 years would be a national economic/real estate downturn and I'm pretty sure UCPS isn't in the business of predicting that kind of stuff.

As far as the % married, is the 26% a national statistic or Union County? If it's national, I'd bet that in the Charlotte metro that number is higher.
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Old 09-12-2017, 09:50 AM
 
1,476 posts, read 1,016,025 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GoPhils View Post
Fair enough, but isn't there still a lot of building going on and even a lot of empty land that could be potentially built on down there? I feel like the only thing that will slow down new construction there within the next 5-7 years would be a national economic/real estate downturn and I'm pretty sure UCPS isn't in the business of predicting that kind of stuff.

As far as the % married, is the 26% a national statistic or Union County? If it's national, I'd bet that in the Charlotte metro that number is higher.
Yes, that is a national statistic. In Union County, 34.7% of the population age 20-34 is married per the 2015 Census Survey. At that same survey, the USA national statistic was 27.6% married age 20-34.

In Mecklenburg County, 27.2% of the population age 20-34 is married per the 2015 Census survey.
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