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Like you said no jobs = no housing recovery. Looking at the new foreclosures coming down the pipeline in the Charlotte area, one can ony predict that more pain is ahead with home prices.
You also have higher taxes on the way, continued high unemployment, more ARM resets coming, a huge shadow inventory of foreclosures, governmental support going away this spring, rising interest rates, HUGE goverment debt, and no job creation plan by our government............... all of which point to one direction in the economy............. DOWN
Like you said no jobs = no housing recovery. Looking at the new foreclosures coming down the pipeline in the Charlotte area, one can ony predict that more pain is ahead with home prices.
You also have higher taxes on the way, continued high unemployment, more ARM resets coming, the huge shadow inventory of foreclosures, governmental support going away this spring, rising interest rates, HUGE goverment debt, and no job creation plan by our government............... all of which point to one direction............. DOWN
I have always been at least cautiously optimistic about the future of our country, as well the future of this region of the country. I lived through a lot of uncertainty at the federal level, all of it over-shadowed by the Cold War, then Viet Nam and then the recession of the 70s. When I got out of college, it was the same type of employment situation as now - only then - we still had manufacturing left in this region . . . It used to be folks said - "why did I bother to get a college degree - the only job I can find is working at the Textile Mill or a Furniture Factory."
We thought that was the ultimate let-down.
Now, folks are graduating from college and can't find a job doing anything and there is no "fall back" position. Even if the ultimate "humiliation" for my generation of college graduates was "to work in a factory," it was a JOB! Today's graduates do not even have that option.
As it turned out, I worked several years in customer service at a large furniture manufacturing company and when I look back, that was actually one of the most rewarding jobs I ever had, as far as comraderie as well as learning the basics of how corporations are run. If you can survive those corporate politics, you can make it in any industry, lol.
So I have lived at a time when we would literally put money into a pool to come up with enough gas money to fill a VW up enough to run all week - so we could car pool together to get to work every day.
Crazy stuff! Most people have no idea what it would be like to live like that, so maybe it is a good thing that some of us weathered such tough times and know how to stretch a dollar.
All our parents had homes - some which they had inherited from their parents. Most were very modest by our standards today. I downsized to the house I currently have, but I was thinking about that the other day and realized that when I was 21, I aspired to have the house I have today. It would have been considered something only "the wealthy" would have had 40 years ago. Now it is just one of thousands similar to it, and nothing special for south Charlotte.
It is really strange how folks' idea of what a "starter house" or even a house that is "middleclass" should look like in 2010. Anything over 2000 sq. ft in 1970 was considered quite the house. Most people aspired to have a 2000 sq. ft ranch or L-shaped home on 1/2 acre or more - and if you had the cash for it - a pool out back.
Now, I hear young couples with children worrying that their 4 BDR, 2 1/2 bath house w/ bonus room and gourmet kitchen is gonna be big enough for their family.
Times sure have changed.
But you know what they say . . . the more things change, the more they stay the same. And my prediction is . . . young folks born from the 80s on are gonna create a new reality about housing, b/c they are not going to be able to afford homes that large any more. You add the taxes, utilities and (lord help us if it ever passes) "cap & trade" costs . . . and people are gonna be saying - Gosh, bedrooms are just for sleeping - where can I find a nice, energy efficient 1500 sq. ft house for my family . . .
These McMansions that dot the countryside are going to become symbols of pre-bust America and the market for them is going to be limited to folks who are housing multi-generational families - and the very wealthy.
The only "luxury" markets I can think of in the whole Charlotte area would be prime lake front and prime Uptown locations... what could possibly be luxury about UC except bigger houses and larger plots?
Every once and awhile everyone has to ask a stupid question. This is an example of someone asking a stupid question.
I consider luxury homes (at least when it comes to UC) to be above 750K.
I don't agree. I've been pricing out Charlotte homes in the event we move there and I consider the luxury market starting around 2,000,000. Anything below that, and you are truly slumming it.
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And not a damn thing any of us can do about the national issues that will continue to affect our prosperity (and job situations). Those are issues that will impact all of us well into the next decade.
Beyond voting, this is very true.
The only other thing a person can do is keep themselves educated on the issues and this goes beyond watching the US corporate media and reading papers full of AP articles. Having lived during that time myself, I agree with what you said on what would be considered a large house in the 1970s. Rare to find anything over 2000 sq ft. Now there are homes with bedrooms suites that large. The sad thing about it, is that compared to the 1970s we have less wealth creation now than we did then. It's the perversion of our financal system that has made it possible for people to buy these monstrous places. There is now a complete disconnect between the finance industry and the real economy because the finance industry stopped being an enabler for the real economy and now has become an ends to itself.
A few years back I remember talking to someone about the insanity of building 50 story residential skyscrapers in a city that has no land or population pressures, people paying 1/2 million dollars for shacks that are about to fall down close to downtown, and the endless building of McMansions in former cowfields around Charlotte. Much of it was on 100%+ financing. To question this, as you guys have noticed, would have subjected you to ridicule and derision. Now everyone is running for cover. The common sense that you displayed has prevailed. Sadly there are still people who don't believe and you can turn on HGTV anynight and see endless shows about first time buyers signing up for 1/2 million dollar places, getting 100% loans, etc etc. it is about as irresponsible as it gets.
I'm not sure how it will end as there is no historical precedent for what is happening, and for the most part out it's of the people's (American at least) eyes. It's not like this everywhere as just yesterday, Iceland held an unusual vote where the taxpayers simply refused to accept responsibility for the failure of speculation of their currency by the bankers. They rightfully argue that destruction of the Krona and debt run up isn't their responsibility. They say go take to from the bankers billion dollar bonuses. Bully for them. It's a shame we don't have that level of understanding by the American public, who, for the most part, just accepts it. The Icelanders got there by protesting in the streets like what took place here during the Vietnam war. Contrast that to here where the news that only 36,000 people lost jobs last month is being hailed as an economic success by the government and media.
Aside from voting the only other thing you can do is to try and protect yourself from what is coming. The government and the bankers at the federal reserve are going to use all kinds of methods to take the remaining wealth from people. They have to, the have no choice. The debt being run up at the hands of the bankers here is simply staggering. One way or the other, like Iceland, its got to break and when it does, it will be a game changer.
I am not in favor of a poll tax, but I do believe only land owners should be able to vote.
So did our founding fathers, but that was changed as the country evolved into a populist form of government, lol.
You are about two hundred years too late, KR.
Debt is a way of life, altho that will surely be changing.
As far as McMansions and the wealth that has NOT backed those purchases up . . . they will become symbols of conspicuous consumerism and as taxes and utility rates/expenses go up in the coming years, they will be considered a burden for the middleclass.
The only other thing a person can do is keep themselves educated on the issues and this goes beyond watching the US corporate media and reading papers full of AP articles. Having lived during that time myself, I agree with what you said on what would be considered a large house in the 1970s. Rare to find anything over 2000 sq ft. Now there are homes with bedrooms suites that large. The sad thing about it, is that compared to the 1970s we have less wealth creation now than we did then. It's the perversion of our financal system that has made it possible for people to buy these monstrous places. There is now a complete disconnect between the finance industry and the real economy because the finance industry stopped being an enabler for the real economy and now has become an ends to itself.
A few years back I remember talking to someone about the insanity of building 50 story residential skyscrapers in a city that has no land or population pressures, people paying 1/2 million dollars for shacks that are about to fall down close to downtown, and the endless building of McMansions in former cowfields around Charlotte. Much of it was on 100%+ financing. To question this, as you guys have noticed, would have subjected you to ridicule and derision. Now everyone is running for cover. The common sense that you displayed has prevailed. Sadly there are still people who don't believe and you can turn on HGTV anynight and see endless shows about first time buyers signing up for 1/2 million dollar places, getting 100% loans, etc etc. it is about as irresponsible as it gets.
I'm not sure how it will end as there is no historical precedent for what is happening, and for the most part out it's of the people's (American at least) eyes. It's not like this everywhere as just yesterday, Iceland held an unusual vote where the taxpayers simply refused to accept responsibility for the failure of speculation of their currency by the bankers. They rightfully argue that destruction of the Krona and debt run up isn't their responsibility. They say go take to from the bankers billion dollar bonuses. Bully for them. It's a shame we don't have that level of understanding by the American public, who, for the most part, just accepts it. The Icelanders got there by protesting in the streets like what took place here during the Vietnam war. Contrast that to here where the news that only 36,000 people lost jobs last month is being hailed as an economic success by the government and media.
Aside from voting the only other thing you can do is to try and protect yourself from what is coming. The government and the bankers at the federal reserve are going to use all kinds of methods to take the remaining wealth from people. They have to, the have no choice. The debt being run up at the hands of the bankers here is simply staggering. One way or the other, like Iceland, its got to break and when it does, it will be a game changer.
I am so glad I have had to live frugally in my young years, as I am sure this is how I will be living in my senior years - so good thing I can adapt. I feel for those who are used to living w/ endless options as they are going to find the adjustments in the coming two decades very difficult and oppressive.
I found the hoopla from the WH stunningly manipulative as to the celebration that we "only lost 36K jobs," lol! I feel like Alice Through the Looking Glass these days . . . concerns are contorted and everything has a "spin" attached, to make it (supposedly) more palatable.
Taxes will necessarily have to soar and folks who have large homes are gonna be the first target (at the local level).
I have been reading a lot about the early 20th C over the past 18 months and I do think there are many comparisons b/n our present situation and that of 100 years ago, as far as economics and even with politics. Wilson's Administration is a gold mine for understanding the progressive movement that seems to be going on w/in the present WH Admin.
If you consider how folks lived and the houses they lived in - think of all the beautiful large homes built after the turn of the century - many of which ended up as boarding homes - renting out rooms - or as multi-generational living situations. It is not unthinkable that this is how McMansions of the future will be used - as folks are simply not going to have the $$ to offset rising expenses. This may especially be true with aging parents who have had their wealth wiped out in this current economic climate. Houses now in foreclosure could be purchased with parents and their adult children pooling $$ for that mortgage.
Living in the Great Depression, the main problem was there were simply no jobs. We are rapidly getting to the point where we will all have to wake up and see that there are far too many folks out of work for the federal government to continue subsidizing. We are already in the red w/ unemployment compensation. Things would be as dire as they were in 1930-34 right now if folks were not getting those compensation checks!
What has concerned me is that it is quite possible that local municipalities could eventually buy up McMansions and change them to multi-living residences. Anyone who thinks that can't happen has his/her head in the sand. If things continue on a downward spiral with the economy, that is exactly what could happen in neighborhoods where multiple foreclosed properties have languished on the market for years.
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What has concerned me is that it is quite possible that local municipalities could eventually buy up McMansions and change them to multi-living residences.....
I don't think the municipalities have the money to do such a thing. Also, these McMansions that have been built out in the middle of no-where like Union county won't work well for this because there is no transit beyond the automobile. At best, they can show up with the bulldozers after they have been abandoned, push them down, and let it return to nature.
There is already a big problem like this now that is causing problems with the catawba river. There are some developments that have been completely abandoned and never finished, and the runoff from all the rain we have had recently is causing a lot of pollution in the river. The berms and stuff that were erected to prevent it are collapsing.
Location: The place where the road & the sky collide
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I also graduated from college in the early 70s to the reality that there were no college-level jobs to be had. It wasn't a total surprise since the reality of suburban South Jersey was that the whole economy was tied to Campbell's Soup & RCA. If RCA (after multiple acquisitions, now Lockheed Martin) lost one or more government contracts for the Vietnam War, there were massive layoffs & everyone suffered.
The joke was that when RCA had a lay off, Campbell's did well & that helped the farmers who were the majority, or close to it, in South Jersey)
In this economy, I am also grateful for having lived through that recession & the others that followed. I also know how to get by. I, too, took many a factory job to "get by".
The McMansion craze was just a bit beyond my comprehension of a prudent thing to do. Sure, custom build them, & build them to last, like they used to build houses, but buying up farms & slapping them up (They did the same in South Jersey.) That was a waste of good land & screwed up drainage to boot. Of course, the worst was when they went into older, established, neighborhoods & tore down perfectly good houses & slapped up McMansions. They did that on every street of my old neighborhood & drove up the property values & therefore the property taxes and drove out at least half of us.
I have not been out to see the McMansion farms in Union County, but I saw their northern cousins. I feel sorry for folks who bought into them in a responsible way, but not for the greedy builders who built irresponsibly or those who bought irresponsibly.
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