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Having come from the NE and also having been looking at real estate in the Mooresville area for 2+ years - I can weigh in here. I know it's different than UC, but the basic concepts should be the same.
I don't know where you came up with the 300k number, however you seem extremely resourceful and frankly it sounds reasonable for how things were... not so certain now, though. In the NE, I've had several reputable realtors explain that they see home prices at 2003-2004 levels... they've said it's reasonable to think this trend will continue until right around 9-11 values. Even if you don't go back to 2001, you
have to realize how long someone would to have been in a house to see 300k appreciation. I bought my 1st house on Long island in a very desirable above average middle class neighborhood for $140k in 1995 - I sold it for $199k in 1998. That same house was selling for high 300s (likely 400k) in 2005-2006. Today, I'm guessing it would have to be priced in the low 300s to sell. Now I don't think it will fall back to 199k, but it most definitely could find itself below 300k - a number anyone would have called you insane had you mentioned it 3 years ago.
If I continue along this line of thinking, I would think that your 300k in pocket prospective buyers would have had to buy in the 80s to get that much appreciation... You're not making 300k on a home bought 10 years ago anymore. If this is the case, it would be significantly changing the entire demographic of transplants from the NE, or at least what I think are the demographic (young families). I think it's much more likely that the demographic won't change - how much money they will be bringing to invest will change.
Even me (who doesn't have near 300k to invest) would prefer to build a custom home... It's the logical choice considering how many options are available from builders - how many builders there are - and how many choices of location. Why would I buy resale? One reason - to try and get in an established community. But frankly, what does that mean in dollars/cents? Is it worth just as much as a custom built brand new home? Maybe... possibly - but this only goes so far. You'd be talking about very specific prime areas and communites. Even then, you'd find that many people will prefer the custom built home with picking all your colors and upgrade X, Y, and Z thrown in!
MikeyKid, you make some excellent points which I've also been saying on this forum for quite awhile.
However you want to slice and dice it, Charlotte is dependent on transplants. Thats who bought all these homes over the past several years. The slowdown (especially in the NE) started in '05 and it took awhile, but Charlotte started feeling the effects last year.
Many transplants had zero issues selling their homes before '06 and would come down here and get a bigger, newer sqare footage house for 40% less than what their house up north was worth. Not to mention they'd be paying a fraction of the property taxes. UC and othervsuburban counties welcomed them w/open arms, letting the developers go wild w/o worrying about the future problems associated w/surplus growth.
Anifani makes a good point about buying into "established" neighborhoods, but I didn't want that. See, to understand, you have to travel in someone's shoes. I lived in an "established" neighborhood up north (a 40yr old overpriced POS) and was sick of fixing things constantly, painting the cedar shakes, tarring my driveway, you name it. I researched for many years and we fell in love w/a new home in UC. I couldn't be happier. Yes, it isn't "utopia" out here, but its pretty damn near close.
MikeyKid, you make some excellent points which I've also been saying on this forum for quite awhile.
However you want to slice and dice it, Charlotte is dependent on transplants. Thats who bought all these homes over the past several years. The slowdown (especially in the NE) started in '05 and it took awhile, but Charlotte started feeling the effects last year.
Many transplants had zero issues selling their homes before '06 and would come down here and get a bigger, newer sqare footage house for 40% less than what their house up north was worth. Not to mention they'd be paying a fraction of the property taxes. UC and othervsuburban counties welcomed them w/open arms, letting the developers go wild w/o worrying about the future problems associated w/surplus growth.
Anifani makes a good point about buying into "established" neighborhoods, but I didn't want that. See, to understand, you have to travel in someone's shoes. I lived in an "established" neighborhood up north (a 40yr old overpriced POS) and was sick of fixing things constantly, painting the cedar shakes, tarring my driveway, you name it. I researched for many years and we fell in love w/a new home in UC. I couldn't be happier. Yes, it isn't "utopia" out here, but its pretty damn near close.
coupon - I agree with you 100%. But for the immediate future we can shelve the "Builders Gone Wild - Union County Limited Edition" DVD. Time to relax and enjoy for a while!
ani - I really see how you're at this... those salary numbers are very key I think. The salary you make in the Charlotte area won't stack up well against the NE. It's anywhere from 15-25% lower paying in my field down here. The difference before was made up by coming down with wads of cash to pay down how much mortgage you'd need. The trickle effect... that magic 400k number. It really all goes back to the age old real estate saying - location, location, and - location. Meaning Charlotte seems to be stabilizing at that same 400k sweet spot I think was happening in the NE. Did Charlotte catch up with NE where you're looking at a similar number to get in a "good area"? That's what I'm wondering.
Because if that's true - either Charlotte gets a nice big across the board salary raise or houses starting selling at stupid numbers in the NE again - only way to make the market move substantially here for a while.
CJ - I hear and feel ya dude... I owned a 30 year old house.
I would guess the folks who transplanted 3+ years ago did exponentially better than those who are coming down now. Coming down without a job? Shouldn't even discuss it - unless the trust fund is paying well.
Is it still worth it? I think so. But some of us kinda missed it... base hit up the middle instead of the home run. At least we're on base!
If you are interested in horse property, anything over half an acre, or a neighborhood with privacy (trees and such), you pretty much have to buy in an established neighborhood where I live (Marvin.)
OMG - I hate that commercial!!! ROFL!!!! Yep, I am an expert in my own mind, I guess.
But ani - You have to remember that the first link in knowledge is to pose a thoughtful question which you do exceedingly well! Galileo asked about orbits, Newton about gravity and Einstein about relativity. Posing the question properly sometimes involves as much heavy mental lifting as coming up with an answer!
That said, it's going to be a quiet, but nonetheless interesting time in the Charlotte RE market in the comong year. We'll have a lot to talk about!
MikeyKid, you make some excellent points which I've also been saying on this forum for quite awhile.
However you want to slice and dice it, Charlotte is dependent on transplants. Thats who bought all these homes over the past several years. The slowdown (especially in the NE) started in '05 and it took awhile, but Charlotte started feeling the effects last year.
Many transplants had zero issues selling their homes before '06 and would come down here and get a bigger, newer sqare footage house for 40% less than what their house up north was worth. Not to mention they'd be paying a fraction of the property taxes. UC and othervsuburban counties welcomed them w/open arms, letting the developers go wild w/o worrying about the future problems associated w/surplus growth.
Anifani makes a good point about buying into "established" neighborhoods, but I didn't want that. See, to understand, you have to travel in someone's shoes. I lived in an "established" neighborhood up north (a 40yr old overpriced POS) and was sick of fixing things constantly, painting the cedar shakes, tarring my driveway, you name it. I researched for many years and we fell in love w/a new home in UC. I couldn't be happier. Yes, it isn't "utopia" out here, but its pretty damn near close.
Jack, sounds darned good to me, too! We are still updating our home. Got it at a great price and the appreciation has been terrific. But I know exactly what you mean. We only looked at 3 houses b/f we bought this one, LOL. Seriously. I was 100% settled on wanting an all brick Georgian w/ hipped roof on 1/2 acre, in an established neighborhood. We only had 4 weeks to find a house - quick closing on our home - and the crazy thing was - it was listed less than 72 hours when it sold. So we had to move quickly. Luckily, I knew CLT and I never even drove around looking at neighborhoods. Just told our realtor what we wanted and where and - well - that was that.
I do think that things are getting ready to shift and people are gonna be looking for houses at a different price point. Your analysis seems totally on target to me - timing is everything and I think those who left the NE prior to 2006 had a good situation . . . one wh/ we are not likely to see again for quite some time.
But ani - You have to remember that the first link in knowledge is to pose a thoughtful question which you do exceedingly well! Galileo asked about orbits, Newton about gravity and Einstein about relativity. Posing the question properly sometimes involves as much heavy mental lifting as coming up with an answer!
That said, it's going to be a quiet, but nonetheless interesting time in the Charlotte RE market in the comong year. We'll have a lot to talk about!
Gee, Em, you are gonna have me truly believing I am an expert in my own mind!!!! HEE HEE.
I don't know if it is gonna be quiet or not . . . just think the price points are gonna shift. I think people are still gonna be flooding in here . . . just don't think there is gonna be as much activity in the $400,000 and up price range. I am thinking people are gonna be seeking out that $250-375,000 range . . .
Wish I could make a bet on that . . . wonder if Las Vegas will make book on CLT real estate market, LOL!!! <just kidding, really!!!>
Gee, Em, you are gonna have me truly believing I am an expert in my own mind!!!! HEE HEE.
I don't know if it is gonna be quiet or not . . . just think the price points are gonna shift. I think people are still gonna be flooding in here . . . just don't think there is gonna be as much activity in the $400,000 and up price range. I am thinking people are gonna be seeking out that $250-375,000 range . . .
Wish I could make a bet on that . . . wonder if Las Vegas will make book on CLT real estate market, LOL!!! <just kidding, really!!!>
You would think that the price point would drop, but I'm not so sure. The whole market may just contract. Instead of 60,000 to 80,000 people moving to the Charlotte region that number will drop to half or less. Even the half-way decent houses and townhouses in the less than 200k category are not selling well. I'm tempted to play an old Bette Midler album entitled "Old Songs for the New Depression"!
ani - I really see how you're at this... those salary numbers are very key I think. The salary you make in the Charlotte area won't stack up well against the NE. It's anywhere from 15-25% lower paying in my field down here. The difference before was made up by coming down with wads of cash to pay down how much mortgage you'd need. The trickle effect... that magic 400k number. It really all goes back to the age old real estate saying - location, location, and - location. Meaning Charlotte seems to be stabilizing at that same 400k sweet spot I think was happening in the NE. Did Charlotte catch up with NE where you're looking at a similar number to get in a "good area"? That's what I'm wondering.
Because if that's true - either Charlotte gets a nice big across the board salary raise or houses starting selling at stupid numbers in the NE again - only way to make the market move substantially here for a while.
CJ - I hear and feel ya dude... I owned a 30 year old house.
I would guess the folks who transplanted 3+ years ago did exponentially better than those who are coming down now. Coming down without a job? Shouldn't even discuss it - unless the trust fund is paying well.
Is it still worth it? I think so. But some of us kinda missed it... base hit up the middle instead of the home run. At least we're on base!
Mikey - you are right - you are here and that is the thing. If you had delayed, it sure would not have made it better!
And you are 100% correct re: jobs - those days of coming here w/o a job - well - I guess if people can find places to rent and take a risk . . .
The market is changing here . . . just not sure what it all means yet.
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Galileo asked about orbits, Newton about gravity and Einstein about relativity. Posing the question properly sometimes involves as much heavy mental lifting as coming up with an answer! 
