Charlotte the only major city in US with rising home prices (real estate, foreclosure)

[CouponJack]

Ok, regarding Area 5 (Charlotte Neighborhoods West of Providence Road and East of Park Road including, Cherry, Dilworth, Myers Park, Barclay Downs, Foxcroft, Beverly Woods, Cameron Wood, South Park, Quail Hollow, Olde Providence, Shadow Lake, Stone Creek Ranch, and Ballantyne)

this is what I found....see the attached updated to Feb/2008.

Real Estate Blog - 2-2008 Market Update for South Charlotte Area 5 (Myers Park, South Park, Olde Providence, Dilworth)

The good and the bad as follows...

Inventory is up significantly YOY.

Sales "pending" are down around 50% YOY

"sold" homes are down around 13%

Percentage of list price is around 96% (this is misleading because it doesn't factor reductions in price or homes that are taken off the market)

Avg days on mkt are up to aro 78 days from mid 60's...

Avg "sold" price is aro 572K. (I think Jan was an aberration and the #'s will fluctuate aro 500K)


So, what can we decifer from this data???

Personally, I think you need to see a few more months of what the trend line is for inventory levels. Inventory YOY has been higher every month YOY since last April. Will homes continue to flood the market? Who knows...

Sales are way down, even worse, "pending" sales (which is a more reliable indicator) is down 50%. This could be an anomoly, but pendings have dropped off a cliff YOY since November...I think you need a couple more months to see where things go...

"sold" prices are still high. Could this be from the teardowns happening in the neighborhoods where bigger homes are replacing smaller homes? Could this be some multi-million dollar homes sold which could have skewed the #'s?? Not sure....Land/area is still desireable.

The only thing though is that when sales continue to drop and inventory rises, it becomes a bubble eventually....will things stabilize? Who knows....

Hope this helps...maybe we can get some realtors who are objectionable and sell homes in area 5 to breakdown the data...

I also have for Union County if anyone is interested...

[amploud]

Originally Posted by anifani821

Charlotte has never had a hugely inflated market as we have seen in so many other areas of the country, i.e. Florida, CA, NY, NJ, etc.

While the above statement is true, it doesn't mean that real-estate isn't over valued in the Charlotte area. I found Peter Schiff's explanation of how the "stock market bubble" transitioned directly into the "housing bubble" to be very informative. While Charlotte real estate doesn't have near the potential risk of some of the super-inflated markets, it still poses risk. I believe trickle-down effects from the weak national economy will have a greater effect on Charlotte real estate in the next 12 months than the trailing 12 months.

I've lived in the area for one year and have decided to continue renting based on the research I've done. It's not yet the time to buy.

[anifani821]

Originally Posted by amploud

While the above statement is true, it doesn't mean that real-estate isn't over valued in the Charlotte area. I found Peter Schiff's explanation of how the "stock market bubble" transitioned directly into the "housing bubble" to be very informative. While Charlotte real estate doesn't have near the potential risk of some of the super-inflated markets, it still poses risk. I believe trickle-down effects from the weak national economy will have a greater effect on Charlotte real estate in the next 12 months than the trailing 12 months.

I've lived in the area for one year and have decided to continue renting based on the research I've done. It's not yet the time to buy.

But Amp - wouldn't you say - that would depend on where you are looking and in what price range? Or not? Cause let's say you want lake property - at either LKN or Tega Cay . . . that particular property you really want might not stay on the market if you wait . . . ???

[amploud]

Originally Posted by anifani821

But Amp - wouldn't you say - that would depend on where you are looking and in what price range? Or not? Cause let's say you want lake property - at either LKN or Tega Cay . . . that particular property you really want might not stay on the market if you wait . . . ???

Price range - absolutely. The "rich" don't have recessions.

Locations - to a much lesser extent. I don't think most people really understand how bad things can get economically. The near term future (5 years) looks very scary. I believe that meeting the need of "shelter" will become more important than meeting the want of "prime location" for most people. I certainly believe some properties will fall in value slower than others depending on many factors.

Of course, I am factoring in inflation when I talk about "value." The number of dollars that I sell something for is irrelevant. I am interested in what those dollars can buy. A $200K house purchased 5 years ago would have to sell for $232K today just to break even with 3% inflation. (I believe "real" inflation is much higher.) Many people would claim they made $32K on their home. Those people are wrong. Any number greater than $200K but less than $232K represents a loss of value.

[MikeyKid]

Originally Posted by amploud

Price range - absolutely. The "rich" don't have recessions.

Locations - to a much lesser extent. I don't think most people really understand how bad things can get economically. The near term future (5 years) looks very scary. I believe that meeting the need of "shelter" will become more important than meeting the want of "prime location" for most people. I certainly believe some properties will fall in value slower than others depending on many factors.

Of course, I am factoring in inflation when I talk about "value." The number of dollars that I sell something for is irrelevant. I am interested in what those dollars can buy. A $200K house purchased 5 years ago would have to sell for $232K today just to break even with 3% inflation. (I believe "real" inflation is much higher.) Many people would claim they made $32K on their home. Those people are wrong. Any number greater than $200K but less than $232K represents a loss of value.

Yeah, I agree... the problem right now is that the middle class is being slowly exterminated. 3 months ago I thought the answer was the Democratic party - I mean the Republicans like usual think we can spend our way out of any economic issues. Spend, spend, spend - stimulus package (here's 1-2k so you can go SHOPPING).

But, now I'm not so sure... concerned with Obama and Clinton basically going nowhere and McCain gaining momentum. His appearance on Letterman last night swayed me a bit - hell, he's about as Democratic of a Republican as you can get... I know the President is mostly a figure head and it's more about the administration that they surround themselves with. blah

You can clearly see a trend here on the boards now... most people coming here to post about relocation are wanting to buy in the 200k and less range. 6 months ago, the threads I was reading here were mostly about the 400k and up range... As Americans we tend to fool ourselves and stick our heads in the sand when it comes to big issues. It's not necessarily a bad thing - I mean I do it, too. For many people this is what you need to do so you can get through the day-to-day with a smile.

[raybourne]

We were talking about that very thing last night here. The middle class is disappearing in this country. Interesting and scary thought.

[DawnW]

Well, I am not sure I agree. I think a firm definition of middle class needs to be explained here.

Are there more categories than poor, upper and lower middle class and rich?

I am just curious as to what others think about this.

For me, there are varying degrees of rich. Someone who makes $200,000 a year might be considered rich or might be considered upper middle class. I really don't know what the definitions are anymore.

Dawn

Originally Posted by raybourne

We were talking about that very thing last night here. The middle class is disappearing in this country. Interesting and scary thought.

[vanyali]

Originally Posted by lovesMountains

But it sounds like your home HAS retained its value? Maybe you are saying you just thought you'd see more appreciation by now?

No, if something cost a dollar today, and it cost a dollar 8 years ago, today's price is cheaper than the price 8 years ago because of inflation.

[raybourne]

I think the class thing is really that the middle sections of the countr are being squeezed downwards or their heading upwards, I would say more down than up. So many people seem to be less wealthy then their parents were at their age.

[MikeyKid]

Originally Posted by DawnW

Well, I am not sure I agree. I think a firm definition of middle class needs to be explained here.

Are there more categories than poor, upper and lower middle class and rich?

I am just curious as to what others think about this.

For me, there are varying degrees of rich. Someone who makes $200,000 a year might be considered rich or might be considered upper middle class. I really don't know what the definitions are anymore.

Dawn

I don't want to start a whole debate on class - it's completely subjective where you draw the lines. Over the years the middle class was broken down further - where education became a key factor... among other things.

What the heck, it's relevant. Some very good information on social class and its history:

Social class - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia