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Ever since the whole "bank merger" thing started several weeks ago and it's possible effects on the city of Charlotte I have given this a great deal of thought.In addition to the rumors surrounding moving people out of CLT by the take over bank, and they are only conjecture, I have followed very closely the "scene" in NYC.These are my opinions and my opinions only:
a) About 150,000 people are going to be let go in NY.Thirty-five thousand will be in the financial area alone. For the MOST part these people do not want to leave NY but because of the very high cost of living in NY they will be forced to leave. There is only a slim, very slim chance,that they can find other suitable work in NY. Like or or not they will have to relocate.
b) Many of the people I refer to in (a) above are young people living in apartments and don't have the problem of selling a house. Most of the leases written in NY are for a term of one year only so there isn't a strong financial or legal tie-in.So, how will they afford a $2000 a month apartment after about 3-4 months lay-off? They can't. They will need to re-located for least for the next couple of years.
c) The homeowner on Long Island or NJ has a more acute problem. He's tied to a house that is difficult to sell. But, he can last only so long.When he comes to the realization that he is just not going to get his price for "his baby" he will need to cut and run. He sure as heck is not running to another part of NY or NJ. I don't think so.He needs to re-locate
d) Retirees. I don't need to point out the disadvantages of moving to Fla. over moving to CLT. All of this has been covered quite nicely here on CD.
The cost of staying in NY is out of the question for them.
They need to re-locate.
All of this may sound like someone who works for "Come to North Carolina" but it's not really.It's simply my thoughts on the future growth of Charlotte.
je
P.S. Disclaimer:I surely hope no one takes this post as an endorsement that there is work in Charlotte.
Charlotte may be cheaper than NYC, but it's far from the cheapest place to live in the US. If I'd just been laid off and had to move, I'd choose a lower cost of living city if I didn't have immediate job prospects elsewhere.
Charlotte's cost of living is slightly higher than the U.S. average. Several small to mid-size cities in the Midwest have a cost of living that is approximately 75% of the national average with significantly cheaper housing, groceries, auto insurance, etc. (I know it may sound strange to bring up auto insurance, but my auto insurance doubled when I moved here from Indiana!)
Also, north-easterners are used to lousy weather, so the Midwest wouldn't be a change.
If I knew that I would be unemployed or underemployed for a significant amount of time due to the economic downturn, I'd choose a city with a lower cost of living than Charlotte.
Yes but you know the facts and I'm not so sure everyone "Thinking about moving to CLT bla, bla bla" does.Look at the archive and see how many people are coming here without a job. That alone shows you the amount of research a lot of people do. Then check how far out of the central district they are thin king of moving to without a regard to gas prices/quality of life.
when the economy goes sour I doubt anyone will go anywhere even if it's for work- to some people, the excitement of a place like NYC will keep them there even if they are economically stressed
now that's not to say that people haven't moved here- but I think people are more apt to move when they have a defined opportunity then cutting town if and when they get fired
so my equation is:
-when people already have jobs, and they find a better job- thats when they do the NY to NC thing
-when people are out of jobs- they don't just pick up and do the NY to NC thing because they THINK that they can find something down here- they'll def be sadly mistaken when they get here
I also don't believe that companies are going relocate people for the hell of it- they'll relocate their best talent (maybe 5% if those folks are lucky)
all in- the world is FLAT now, so the whole NY to NC comparison with these major bank mergers is kind of null and void- you wont really know the impact until all the chips shake out- and again its not the financial sector- its the whole economy
my $.02, all of these non-trade jobs type of people, some of them will eventually have to become ditchdiggers again, and you know what- thats not all that bad because I have a feeling its going to renew the economy of the United States and elevate the status of the middle class workforce- leading to a much needed perspective change for our country
............
my $.02, all of these non-trade jobs type of people, some of them will eventually have to become ditchdiggers again, and you know what- thats not all that bad because I have a feeling its going to renew the economy of the United States and elevate the status of the middle class workforce- leading to a much needed perspective change for our country
Just look at past posts on this or any other board - people are looking for good plumbers, lanscapers, painters, electricians, handymen, etc. My last plumber made more than I did and I'm a licensed professional.
I agree to some extent, the ones who already had NC on their radar may still make the move expecially if they already have here. But I think that the young professionals paying the $2K per month rent would probably opt to get a roomate or two or move back with parents if that's an option while they ride this downturn out.
As to the suburbanites, the issue is much more serious because like you say, they are tied to the house, also communities and schools. Their problem is heightened by the high real estate taxes that keep climbing. If those folks get to sell, they are the ones who will come with or without job because for most of them, they can live on some of the profits from their housesfor a while and if they do buy a house, would rather have a $3K tax bill as opposed to a $15K tax bill without a job. It is not ideal but better. And I am not encouraging anyone to move without a job - just contributing my thoughts to your interesting thread. One question keeps lingering in my mind that I would love to get others' thoughts on and that is...which is worse, more transplants coming here to compete for jobs or more people leaving NC leaving behind the unsold houses and forclosures, empty retail, etc. I do not have a clear opinion on this but ever so often when I hear the sentiments of some that transplants may be bad for NC's economy I do wonder about the broader impact if that were to happen what would be he impact on the local economy. A lot of infrastructure and investment haven been made to faciliate the population growth and there are tons of small businesses that have been opened up in Charlotte by transplants who have also provided employment - just go to a few of the Chamber's meetings or look at some of the retail, medical offices, etc. in Charlotte. I also know a lot of transplants who are IT and other professionals who work from home and work for employers outside NC. That's a win win situation, they spend the money here but make it elsewhere. Not to mention those who take their early retirement packages and relocate here. I do not know the statistics on how many transplants are in these categories but I want to bet that a lot of professionals fleeing NYC to NC are not competing for the jobs at Lowes or event BOA.
Charlotte may be cheaper than NYC, but it's far from the cheapest place to live in the US. If I'd just been laid off and had to move, I'd choose a lower cost of living city if I didn't have immediate job prospects elsewhere.
Charlotte's cost of living is slightly higher than the U.S. average. Several small to mid-size cities in the Midwest have a cost of living that is approximately 75% of the national average with significantly cheaper housing, groceries, auto insurance, etc. (I know it may sound strange to bring up auto insurance, but my auto insurance doubled when I moved here from Indiana!)
Also, north-easterners are used to lousy weather, so the Midwest wouldn't be a change.
If I knew that I would be unemployed or underemployed for a significant amount of time due to the economic downturn, I'd choose a city with a lower cost of living than Charlotte.
Groceries are about the same as the northeast. Practically everything else is cheaper. Insurance, sost of houses, apartment rental, services,and the list goes on. Charlotte is noticably below the average cost of living in cities of comparable size in the U.S. according to Forbes and other sites that compare. My moving here from Florida has been a blessing. I am sure that much of Indiana is cheaper than Charlotte, but unless you are from Indianapolis, you are probabaly from a small town and that makes a huge difference.
You could always mention the major slowdown in the local economy and lack of jobs.
If that doesn't work, make something up!
I just tell people we have a problem with bears here. Bears are scary, but believable. I tell them that they come down from the mountains due to a lock of food and global warming. (You can get away with blaming things on global warming and people rarely question it.)
Yep, I just tell people that there are bears roaming the city and suburbs.
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Just tell them about the bears.
