3"-6" Inches of snow tommorow (1/20/09)? (Charlotte, Raleigh: suite, estimated)

[g-man430]

6 hour 0Z NAM map from NOAA is showing less precipitation than originally anticipated. I'll keep you updated cause you know how these things change.

[pink caddy]

Don't you think you amatuers should leave the snowfalls to those that know what there're doing? This is serious stuff not something out of "Nutcracker".
You might pull your car out of the garage and after 4 years of no snow just run over your pansy bush.

Pls. b e carefull.

[TheEmissary]

I'm predicting Monroe gets something between a dusting and an inch! Eric Thomas eat your heart out! I'm that good!!

[g-man430]

I'm going to say 1-2 inches for Charlotte. 2-5 inches just isn't going to happen. It's just not coming together enough to produce the snow results that were originally anticipated. The radar models have been downgrading the last several hours.

[LoveBoating]

We heard about your snow coming on the Weather Channel this afternoon......sure glad we moved down to Florida (Jax) last week! We were living in Huntersville last January when that snow hit. I got up at 2AM to go outside and take some photos/video of it. Before moving to Huntersville, lived for 5 1/2 years in a southern suburb of Denver, CO. Have plenty of photos/video of snow there also. So, bottom line is this: If we want to see snow again, we will just pop in a DVD into the DVD Player and see last January's snow in Huntersville or pop in a DVD of our winters in Colorado......that is the only snow we want to ever see anymore (on our DVD's)! In fact, before leaving NC, we gave our snow shovel to the Goodwill!!
You can have your snow and we will take the heat/humidity (and possible TS) where we are now! Hope all your kids and grandkids have fun playing in the stuff......if you get enough. Nothing like getting a nice sled for Christmas and hitting some fresh snow right outside the back door, instead of driving for 3 1/2 hours!!

[jp03]

Originally Posted by LoveBoating

We heard about your snow coming on the Weather Channel this afternoon......sure glad we moved down to Florida (Jax) last week! We were living in Huntersville last January when that snow hit. I got up at 2AM to go outside and take some photos/video of it. Before moving to Huntersville, lived for 5 1/2 years in a southern suburb of Denver, CO. Have plenty of photos/video of snow there also. So, bottom line is this: If we want to see snow again, we will just pop in a DVD into the DVD Player and see last January's snow in Huntersville or pop in a DVD of our winters in Colorado......that is the only snow we want to ever see anymore (on our DVD's)! In fact, before leaving NC, we gave our snow shovel to the Goodwill!!
You can have your snow and we will take the heat/humidity (and possible TS) where we are now! Hope all your kids and grandkids have fun playing in the stuff......if you get enough. Nothing like getting a nice sled for Christmas and hitting some fresh snow right outside the back door, instead of driving for 3 1/2 hours!!

Some people like the snow. I am thankful we get some change of seasons here unlike "lovely" Florida. Enjoy the bugs, heat, humidity, hurricanes, lightning strikes and so no and so on,......

[g-man430]

From NOAA:


NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 950 PM MONDAY...

INTERESTINGLY AS WE GET CLOSER AND CLOSER TO THE POTENTIAL WINTER
WEATHER EVENT (WE CAN SEE THE WHITE`S OF IT`S EYES)... THE FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS NOW TAKING ON A DRAMATIC TREND TOWARD LOWER
CONFIDENCE. THIS IS THE REVERSE OF WHAT WE LIKE TO SEE... ESPECIALLY
WITHIN THE MODEL SUITE OF FORECASTS. RIGHT NOW... TO STATE THE
FACTS... FIRST THAT THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS (18Z AND NOW THE 00Z
EARLY LOOK) HAVE DRASTICALLY CUT BACK ON QPF OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NC. A FEW MODEL RUNS AGO MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
SUGGESTING UPWARDS OF 0.25 TO 0.75 LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF BETWEEN
06Z TONIGHT AND 18Z OR SO TUESDAY. SINCE THOSE 06Z AND 12Z RUNS
MONDAY... THE TRENDS HAVE SO DRASTICALLY CUT BACK ON THE QPF
(ESPECIALLY THE 18Z AND 00Z NAM). THE 00Z NAM AND NGM... NOW GIVES
RDU AND GRAND TOTAL OF ABOUT 0.02 OF AN INCH... AND ONLY ABOUT 0.10
IN THE HEAVIEST AREAS OF QPF ANYWHERE OUR REGION. REASONS... THE
SURFACE LOW IS NOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP MUCH FURTHER SE OFFSHORE BY
ABOUT 100 MILES THAN IN THE PREVIOUS RUNS.

WE HAVE TO LOOK AT THE ACTUAL DATA TO SEE IF THE 00Z/NAM AND NGM MAY
ACTUALLY BE ON TO SOMETHING BIG (REDUCING OUR QPF BY 75 PERCENT OR
SO. THE WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATES SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORT MAXES AT
00Z/20 JANUARY. ONE WAS APPROACHING THE WESTERN PIEDMONT OF NC
(CURRENTLY ENHANCING SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER THE TRIAD)... ANOTHER
APPROACHING UPSTATE SC FROM NE GA... ENHANCING RADAR RETURNS FROM
GSP TO CLT. THE MOST IMPORTANT VORT MAX... MAY ACTUALLY MOST
SOUTHERN ONE (IN WHICH THE MODELS MAY HAVE UNDERESTIMATED) NOW
CURRENTLY DRIVING A LINE OF CONVECTION ACROSS SE GEORGIA AND
FLORIDA. THIS LINE OF CONVECTION APPEARS SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH IN THAT
THE NEW 00Z/NAM AND NGM NOW PUSH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE FURTHER
OFFSHORE... AND DEVELOP THE SURFACE LOW 100 MILES FARTHER SE THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

THE BIG QUESTION... WHAT WILL THE PREVIOUSLY THROUGH VORTICITY
MAXIMUM DIVING SE THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY HAVE TO WORK
WITH ONCE IT ROUNDS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN SC AND NC LATER
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY? IF THE 00Z/NAM IS CORRECT... THE MAIN BULK OF
THE PRECIP WITH THIS VORT MAX WILL SHIFT TO BETWEEN FAYETTEVILLE AND
GOLDSBORO AND POINTS SE... WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO POSSIBLY
0.2 OF AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT IN THE TRIANGLE AREA.

SUPPORTING THE P-TYPE OF SNOW IS THE RAPID TRANSITION ZONE OF RAIN
TO SNOW SPREADING SE THROUGH THE PIEDMONT NOW. THE RAIN/SNOW LINE
EXTENDED FROM NEAR TROY TO SILER CITY TO DURHAM AS OF MID EVENING.
THEREFORE THE CONFIDENCE ON OUR CURRENT P-TYPE FORECAST AND
TRANSITION TIMING IS HIGH.

BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED INFORMATION... WHAT WE WILL DO FOR NOW
IS TO TREND LOWER IN THE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE FORECASTS...
BUT KEEP THE CURRENT WARNINGS IN PLACE... ACKNOWLEDGING THAT IF WE
DO GET WARNING CRITERIA OF 3 INCHES IN 12 HOURS... IT WOULD LIKELY
BE ON THAT LOW END THRESHOLD.

IT IS HARD TO GO AGAINST NEW MODEL RUNS WITH DRASTIC CHANGES UNLESS
THE CURRENT DATA (RADAR... SATELLITE... AND OBSERVATIONS BOTH
SURFACE AND ALOFT) SUPPORT IT. IN THIS CASE... THERE IS CERTAINLY
JUSTIFICATION TO LOWER THE EXPECTED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS GIVEN THE
INDICATIONS THAT THE NAM MAY BE ON TO SOMETHING WITH IT`S NEW
EMPHASIS ON THE SOUTHERN VORT MAX RIPPING EAST ACROSS SE GA.

BOTTOM LINE... EXPECT A COUPLE OF WAVES OF LIGHT SNOW WEST AND
NORTH... (LIGHT RAIN CHANGING TO LIGHT SNOW FROM NW TO SE) ELSEWHERE
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TWO LEAD VORT
MAXES. THEN THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE WHAT WILL HAPPEN LATER TONIGHT
AS THE STRONG VORT MAX APPROACHES FROM THE SW. WILL THE NEW
NGM/NAM/RUC VERIFY AND TAKE MOST OF THE NEW PRECIPITATION TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST OF RDU? WE WILL TREND THAT WAY BASED ON WHAT WE
CURRENTLY SEE.

ALL ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL AT LEAST THE
NEXT FORECAST PACKAGE. WE WILL SIT TIGHT... WAIT AND SEE. -BADGETT/MWS

[chicagocubs]

The snow is coming from the mountains?? That does not bode well for any accumulation..usually, it has to come from the south....

[Tober138]

Originally Posted by beachbumssb

OMG!! 3" inches of snow!! Everyone panic!! Get to the store for your bread and milk!!! I am not holding my breath, I will believe it when I see it! I could use a day off work though.

One of the downsides to working from home - no snow days

[Appalachian]

It hasn't been cold enough for the snow to stick to the ground. It may initially stick at first but it will be cleared up in no time.