3"-6" Inches of snow tommorow (1/20/09)? (Charlotte, Huntersville: how much, closing)

[CouponJack]

Looks like the models shifted the surface low 100miles further east off the coast. Accuweather's midnight update is saying the "sweet spot" for snow will be NE of Raleigh near the Va/NC border...

I'm guessing we have a dusting by morning at best....maybe 2 inches if we're lucky....

[unknown-man]

hey it is snowing right now
this is the first time for to see snow in my entire life ^_^
cuz it doesn't snow at home
(an international student at UNC Charlotte, originally from Saudi Arabia)

[muffinman]

Originally Posted by unknown-man

hey it is snowing right now
this is the first time for to see snow in my entire life ^_^
cuz it doesn't snow at home
(an international student at UNC Charlotte, originally from Saudi Arabia)

Congrats and enjoy. Lots of stuff closed today.

[BrianH1970]

Originally Posted by g-man430

From NOAA:


NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 950 PM MONDAY...

INTERESTINGLY AS WE GET CLOSER AND CLOSER TO THE POTENTIAL WINTER
WEATHER EVENT (WE CAN SEE THE WHITE`S OF IT`S EYES)... THE FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS NOW TAKING ON A DRAMATIC TREND TOWARD LOWER
CONFIDENCE. THIS IS THE REVERSE OF WHAT WE LIKE TO SEE... ESPECIALLY
WITHIN THE MODEL SUITE OF FORECASTS. RIGHT NOW... TO STATE THE
FACTS... FIRST THAT THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS (18Z AND NOW THE 00Z
EARLY LOOK) HAVE DRASTICALLY CUT BACK ON QPF OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NC. A FEW MODEL RUNS AGO MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
SUGGESTING UPWARDS OF 0.25 TO 0.75 LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF BETWEEN
06Z TONIGHT AND 18Z OR SO TUESDAY. SINCE THOSE 06Z AND 12Z RUNS
MONDAY... THE TRENDS HAVE SO DRASTICALLY CUT BACK ON THE QPF
(ESPECIALLY THE 18Z AND 00Z NAM). THE 00Z NAM AND NGM... NOW GIVES
RDU AND GRAND TOTAL OF ABOUT 0.02 OF AN INCH... AND ONLY ABOUT 0.10
IN THE HEAVIEST AREAS OF QPF ANYWHERE OUR REGION. REASONS... THE
SURFACE LOW IS NOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP MUCH FURTHER SE OFFSHORE BY
ABOUT 100 MILES THAN IN THE PREVIOUS RUNS.

WE HAVE TO LOOK AT THE ACTUAL DATA TO SEE IF THE 00Z/NAM AND NGM MAY
ACTUALLY BE ON TO SOMETHING BIG (REDUCING OUR QPF BY 75 PERCENT OR
SO. THE WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATES SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORT MAXES AT
00Z/20 JANUARY. ONE WAS APPROACHING THE WESTERN PIEDMONT OF NC
(CURRENTLY ENHANCING SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER THE TRIAD)... ANOTHER
APPROACHING UPSTATE SC FROM NE GA... ENHANCING RADAR RETURNS FROM
GSP TO CLT. THE MOST IMPORTANT VORT MAX... MAY ACTUALLY MOST
SOUTHERN ONE (IN WHICH THE MODELS MAY HAVE UNDERESTIMATED) NOW
CURRENTLY DRIVING A LINE OF CONVECTION ACROSS SE GEORGIA AND
FLORIDA. THIS LINE OF CONVECTION APPEARS SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH IN THAT
THE NEW 00Z/NAM AND NGM NOW PUSH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE FURTHER
OFFSHORE... AND DEVELOP THE SURFACE LOW 100 MILES FARTHER SE THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

THE BIG QUESTION... WHAT WILL THE PREVIOUSLY THROUGH VORTICITY
MAXIMUM DIVING SE THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY HAVE TO WORK
WITH ONCE IT ROUNDS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN SC AND NC LATER
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY? IF THE 00Z/NAM IS CORRECT... THE MAIN BULK OF
THE PRECIP WITH THIS VORT MAX WILL SHIFT TO BETWEEN FAYETTEVILLE AND
GOLDSBORO AND POINTS SE... WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO POSSIBLY
0.2 OF AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT IN THE TRIANGLE AREA.

SUPPORTING THE P-TYPE OF SNOW IS THE RAPID TRANSITION ZONE OF RAIN
TO SNOW SPREADING SE THROUGH THE PIEDMONT NOW. THE RAIN/SNOW LINE
EXTENDED FROM NEAR TROY TO SILER CITY TO DURHAM AS OF MID EVENING.
THEREFORE THE CONFIDENCE ON OUR CURRENT P-TYPE FORECAST AND
TRANSITION TIMING IS HIGH.

BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED INFORMATION... WHAT WE WILL DO FOR NOW
IS TO TREND LOWER IN THE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE FORECASTS...
BUT KEEP THE CURRENT WARNINGS IN PLACE... ACKNOWLEDGING THAT IF WE
DO GET WARNING CRITERIA OF 3 INCHES IN 12 HOURS... IT WOULD LIKELY
BE ON THAT LOW END THRESHOLD.

IT IS HARD TO GO AGAINST NEW MODEL RUNS WITH DRASTIC CHANGES UNLESS
THE CURRENT DATA (RADAR... SATELLITE... AND OBSERVATIONS BOTH
SURFACE AND ALOFT) SUPPORT IT. IN THIS CASE... THERE IS CERTAINLY
JUSTIFICATION TO LOWER THE EXPECTED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS GIVEN THE
INDICATIONS THAT THE NAM MAY BE ON TO SOMETHING WITH IT`S NEW
EMPHASIS ON THE SOUTHERN VORT MAX RIPPING EAST ACROSS SE GA.

BOTTOM LINE... EXPECT A COUPLE OF WAVES OF LIGHT SNOW WEST AND
NORTH... (LIGHT RAIN CHANGING TO LIGHT SNOW FROM NW TO SE) ELSEWHERE
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TWO LEAD VORT
MAXES. THEN THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE WHAT WILL HAPPEN LATER TONIGHT
AS THE STRONG VORT MAX APPROACHES FROM THE SW. WILL THE NEW
NGM/NAM/RUC VERIFY AND TAKE MOST OF THE NEW PRECIPITATION TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST OF RDU? WE WILL TREND THAT WAY BASED ON WHAT WE
CURRENTLY SEE.

ALL ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL AT LEAST THE
NEXT FORECAST PACKAGE. WE WILL SIT TIGHT... WAIT AND SEE. -BADGETT/MWS

Can't NOAA just say, "s**t's changed and it's not gonna be as bad as we once thought"?

[pink caddy]

Originally Posted by BrianH1970

Can't NOAA just say, "s**t's changed and it's not gonna be as bad as we once thought"?

That would be taking all of the fun out of "anticipation". Kinda like foreplay with your lover isn't it?? Next step after a dusting will be the singing of the song"Is that all there is?"

[BrianH1970]

Originally Posted by johne482

That would be taking all of the fun out of "anticipation". Kinda like foreplay with your lover isn't it?? Next step after a dusting will be the singing of the song"Is that all there is?"

Because in your instance you don't have to search around for the payoff.


Oh wait....

[pink caddy]

Easy like this or look out your window.
Charlotte, North Carolina (28201) Conditions & Forecast : Weather Underground

[chicagocubs]

schools are closed. The next question...will the banks close?? (next update 7 am)

[chicagocubs]

Originally Posted by unknown-man

hey it is snowing right now
this is the first time for to see snow in my entire life ^_^
cuz it doesn't snow at home
(an international student at UNC Charlotte, originally from Saudi Arabia)

I guess that UNCC is closed today...CPCC is...so, enjoy your first snowfall. This is really wet snow...the really good stuff is drier and fluffier...but, this is good to make a snowman out of (albeit a small one!)

[pink caddy]

Originally Posted by chicagocubs

schools are closed. The next question...will the banks close?? (next update 7 am)

Don't think that would be a good idea. May start a run on the banks. Hey, people are scared right?