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Location: Charlotte,NC, US, North America, Earth, Alpha Quadrant,Milky Way Galaxy
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I read a post in P&O some time ago by a poster (Macmeal I believe). The topic was something similar. Basically he stated that in no time in human history has any group of people had it so good as most of middle class America. If you think about it- you'll can't deny this. For much of human existence, it's been about scraping by to eek out a living. Weather, enemies, predators, etc., made life harsh. Even if you just look at American history and compare turn of the century lifestyle to now, we live in paradise- again comparatively speaking.
One thing that Macmeal wrote that struck me, was the turn of the century life span for men was somewhere in the mid 50s! Diet, harsh work and work environment, etc., all contributed to such a relatively short life span. Now we know a little more about diet, health, exercise, etc, and we've gotten about 20 or so years added.
The point is, how bad is it really. In the case of my buddy who was unemployed, if his worry is preserving the food network, then it ain't that bad, or it hasn't gotten bad enough for him (yet).
My in laws remember the depression very well, and honestly I've marveled at their ability to live off of a fixed income from pension and social security and make it work, and live IMO very well and comfortably. A lot of their frugality was forged in the real depression- you made sure you owned the roof over your head, and you have the essentials (food, water, heat, etc.) My mother says "you just don't know" when I run out and buy a $2 cup of coffee, when that $2 could buy a few lbs and I can drink for a week.
Now, I do believe an economic depression one like the 1930s is possible. It would be arrogant and foolish to assume that it could never happen again. We could be getting close to teetering on one. Like Ani said and others have said, we can have a nice rant fest on how we got here (and that is totally necessary so we don't repeat it), but steps need to be taken to prop up the economy so we can move in the other direction (away from it).
Look for example w/what happened w/gasoline this year. We went up to $4/gallon over the summer, people stopped driving. Now we're back under 1/2 that amount and people aren't driving as much as they used to.
Have they learned? Are we comparing apples to apples? I dunno.....interesting though..
I think our generation has learned. But the next generation (our kids and their kids) probably will repeat it. People read history but don't learn from it unless they experience it themselves. Or people think 'oh it's different this time.' Human nature never changes though...We'll always have greed, envy, etc.
I do agree w/ the sentiments that this isn't that bad when comparing to others living in a warzone or competing for resources like food and water.
We're lucky in the US in our little bubble. No one bombs us and we have plenty of food and clean water.
Location: Some got six month some got one solid. But me and my buddies all got lifetime here
4,555 posts, read 10,401,557 times
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There are some LOL posts in this thread.
People aren't eating out...people aren't spending...people aren't driving. I'm sure that's true to an extent but not magnified to the way you guys are imagining it.
On my way to the Checkers game last night and I made the mistake of trying to get to 85 from Bruton Smith Blvd. That sucker was backed up just like it always has:from Concord Mills Mall all the way back to before Honda of Concord. And if you ever drive past the mall and restaurants on that strip the lots are packed and you can see people waiting to get in to eat.
Just try getting into the Chili's in Concord Mills on a Saturday or Sunday afternoon and look at the line that extends way out past the restaurant.
Even though Circuit City is holding a chump sale there's still people at least looking to buy.
For the hell of it I tried getting tickets for The Dead through their online presale, just to see if all the talk about people staying away due to the prices was true. At a hundred dollars a ticket their limited allotment not only sold out, but several message boards were filled with people complaining that now they'll have to do it on Ticketmaster. Not just one night but several.
Same with Phish on their upcoming tour at tickets ranging around 50 bucks, with people going for multiple shows between Jones Beach, NY all the way to Asheville.
I see people already planning trips from the US to overseas to catch Springsteen on one of his European shows, then gearing for the US leg. He'll nail somewhere between 80 and 90 bucks for a ticket before TM fees.
Ever see the lines for theaters late on a Friday at nearly 10 bucks a movie ticket? They don't look all that much different to me. In fact, they really don't look different at all and you'll still see a decent crowd in Dave and Busters just a few feet away from the theater.
You still can't find a Wii gaming system and videogame software sales surpassed DVD and blu ray sales for the first time ever (with discs that tend to cost a lot more than a DVD). That doesn't count games you can buy from downloads, those are actual disc sales.
The Dark Knight sold 600,000 blu ray copies in the US on it's first day at prices ranging from about 25 to 35 dollars, a price higher than the standard definition DVD disc. I think it hit a million blu ray copies sold by that weekend. 28.6 million blu ray discs sold in the fourth quarter of last year alone. Again, keep in mind that blu ray discs tend to cost more than standard def DVD's.
That's not to say that there isn't a crisis going on and that things aren't bad, but this radical doomsday thinking is just hilarious on top of ridiculous.
We are on the brink, truly we are. When a politician says everything is great, I usually think we have a chance, when they say things like....things will get much worse before they get better......we have not seen the worst of it.......we face many tough challenges...........it's time to head for the hills.
Obama and congress know we are screwed and are trying to let the American people down easily. An end of an Era, as life as we have known is upon us people. Truly it is!
The entire solution by Obama and all of our government is to whip out the credit card and charge, charge, charge. It will work, a little, MAYBE for 1-2 years, then the real fallout will hit.
I predict this year 2009 will be tough, bitter, angry and sad. 2010 will show signs of improvement, again based on using that credit card, 2011 we will see the curve head back to where we are now AND 2012, (did they Mayans have it right) will be the start......of the end of life as we know it.
Sorry, I think I have been hearing the spend, spend, spend mantra from the government for a few years now! Weren't our economy 'sound' until a few months ago? Unfortunately, many Americans heard what they wanted to hear and spent, spent, spent while those privy to the real eocnomic numbers laughed to the bank. Doesn't it feel better to drive home with bags, and bags of stuff we don't need than to hear someone tell you hard times are ahead so take care of your financial house. There is enough blame to go around but what is most bothersome is that the middle class and those most vulnerable always hurt the most. I heard a guy complaining the other day about not getting is $100K+ bonus last year because that's what he had planned to use to pay off his credit cards at the end of year. I wanted to slap him (seriously) but I just changed the subject.
Ani mentioned the state budgets' deficits and she is right. Are we aware that there are seniors on Medicare who are now being told that they have to move to nursing homes to get long term care as opposed to getting the few hours of care they need in their homes. These are seniors who do not need to be in nursing homes. The average time that a senior remains alive in a nursing home is 2.3 years. Someone has done the math and figured out which is cheaper in the long run. We younger ones may not care but hello we are staring down our own fate unless we take action.
We will get past this recession/depression but a much bigger issue is looming that we all need to focus on - like it or not. In the long run, our standard of living will have to be adjusted down as the saftey nets we have gotten used to will go away or drastically decreased. We will have to save more to take care of ourselves when we and our loved ones get sick, disabled or retire. No administration will save us! Like it or not, we are it ... the buck will stop with us. The sooner we accept that fact, the better.
For now, survival may be the game but the ecomony will eventually improve but let's not fool ourselves about our economic reality. Let's start reading beyond the 'Observer', don't rely on what we hear on TV or what politicians say - Rep or Dem. As my history teacher used to say 'you have to take it with a grain of salt and go get the truth yourself'.
People aren't eating out...people aren't spending...people aren't driving. I'm sure that's true to an extent but not magnified to the way you guys are imagining it.
On my way to the Checkers game last night and I made the mistake of trying to get to 85 from Bruton Smith Blvd. That sucker was backed up just like it always has:from Concord Mills Mall all the way back to before Honda of Concord. And if you ever drive past the mall and restaurants on that strip the lots are packed and you can see people waiting to get in to eat.
Just try getting into the Chili's in Concord Mills on a Saturday or Sunday afternoon and look at the line that extends way out past the restaurant.
Even though Circuit City is holding a chump sale there's still people at least looking to buy.
For the hell of it I tried getting tickets for The Dead through their online presale, just to see if all the talk about people staying away due to the prices was true. At a hundred dollars a ticket their limited allotment not only sold out, but several message boards were filled with people complaining that now they'll have to do it on Ticketmaster. Not just one night but several.
Same with Phish on their upcoming tour at tickets ranging around 50 bucks, with people going for multiple shows between Jones Beach, NY all the way to Asheville.
I see people already planning trips from the US to overseas to catch Springsteen on one of his European shows, then gearing for the US leg. He'll nail somewhere between 80 and 90 bucks for a ticket before TM fees.
Ever see the lines for theaters late on a Friday at nearly 10 bucks a movie ticket? They don't look all that much different to me. In fact, they really don't look different at all and you'll still see a decent crowd in Dave and Busters just a few feet away from the theater.
You still can't find a Wii gaming system and videogame software sales surpassed DVD and blu ray sales for the first time ever (with discs that tend to cost a lot more than a DVD). That doesn't count games you can buy from downloads, those are actual disc sales.
The Dark Knight sold 600,000 blu ray copies in the US on it's first day at prices ranging from about 25 to 35 dollars, a price higher than the standard definition DVD disc. I think it hit a million blu ray copies sold by that weekend. 28.6 million blu ray discs sold in the fourth quarter of last year alone. Again, keep in mind that blu ray discs tend to cost more than standard def DVD's.
That's not to say that there isn't a crisis going on and that things aren't bad, but this radical doomsday thinking is just hilarious on top of ridiculous.
Brian, I agree w/most of what you said, but regarding your mall example, yes the malls are packed, but people are spending a lot less than what they used to. People "window shop" to a large extent and they buy, but nowhere near the extent they used to.
Electronics are extremely cheap right now and people are buying heavily discounted merchandise.
Hard core groupies or band followers will always have their followers, and the big time performers (ie Maraih Carey, Madonna) will not have a problem selling tickets (unless the ticket prices are EXTREMELY redicuolous)...I remember a couple years ago that madonna was selling tickets for around 4-500 a pop....
Regarding movies or Dave & Busters, those places will always be packed here because IMO you have limited entertainment for kids.....(ie Chuck e cheese, monkey joes)...also, mothers feel its good VALUE to bring their kids there...
Yes, you've given examples of places being "packed" but things are bad overall and getting worse. NO, we will not go into a depression because of all the entitlement programs out there, but I can guarantee you that services in Charlotte and many more retail outlets will close up...thats a given....we haven't even seen the worst yet.
Location: Some got six month some got one solid. But me and my buddies all got lifetime here
4,555 posts, read 10,401,557 times
Reputation: 2162
Quote:
Originally Posted by CouponJack
Brian, I agree w/most of what you said, but regarding your mall example, yes the malls are packed, but people are spending a lot less than what they used to. People "window shop" to a large extent and they buy, but nowhere near the extent they used to.
Electronics are extremely cheap right now and people are buying heavily discounted merchandise.
Hard core groupies or band followers will always have their followers, and the big time performers (ie Maraih Carey, Madonna) will not have a problem selling tickets (unless the ticket prices are EXTREMELY redicuolous)...I remember a couple years ago that madonna was selling tickets for around 4-500 a pop....
Regarding movies or Dave & Busters, those places will always be packed here because IMO you have limited entertainment for kids.....(ie Chuck e cheese, monkey joes)...also, mothers feel its good VALUE to bring their kids there...
Yes, you've given examples of places being "packed" but things are bad overall and getting worse. NO, we will not go into a depression because of all the entitlement programs out there, but I can guarantee you that services in Charlotte and many more retail outlets will close up...thats a given....we haven't even seen the worst yet.
Yes people are buying heavily discounted merchandise but I'm outlining instances where people are buying the same type of merchandise but spending more for it (ie The Dark Knight blu ray over the standard def version, spending money on videogame discs when they cost more than a movie). I'm addressing all of this doomsday talk that I hear...people aren't going out to eat, people aren't spending, people aren't doing this...and yet some don't want to believe that yes, people are still spending money. Have you checked out auctions on ebay lately? There's still people spending a lot of money on someone else's stuff.
Just look at the way you jumped on Metallisteve when you thought he was spending a lot of money on nicer dinners. But let's say he did: If he has the means and does so responsibly, shouldn't he be able to do so? People still have the ability to spend and many still do. There are still homes being bought, there are still cars being sold, there are still expensive dinners being served out.
Even Carolinablue posts the once in a while optimistic thread about Charlotte housing data and people are looking to deny what they're reading because the national news says otherwise.
Concerts are an ultimate luxury. You absolutely don't need to plunk down over a hundred dollars on anybody but people are still choosing to do so, even with all of the stuff their reading and hearing. And this isn't for one night out or two, but several. 400-500+ dollars being spent by one person for a rock band.
Is everything to the same extent as two years ago? Of course not, but this dark cloud, doomsday crap has got to stop because collectively we're all going to drag this recession on longer than it needs to.
, but this dark cloud, doomsday crap has got to stop because collectively we're all going to drag this recession on longer than it needs to.
How do "we" specifically drag a recession on longer than it needs to? When I hear that statement, I really don't think it makes sense IMO.
I think most people are cutting back and trying to live within their means like they should've all along. We've become such a spending nation which is part of the reason that got us into trouble in the first place (high cc debt for example).
We are not dragging this recession out longer than we should if we spend responsibily, right?
Quote:
Originally Posted by BrianH1970
, Even Carolinablue posts the once in a while optimistic thread about Charlotte housing data and people are looking to deny what they're reading because the national news says otherwise..
Brian, c'mon. Carolina Blue posted a link fromt he NY Times showing that we (charlotte) didn't make the top 20 list of shaky building leases. I told him that this was a useless list/article because NYC was #1....that would mean it would be the most "risky" in the nation.....it was a total hogwash article and had NOTHING to do w/local housing data. And he AGREED with me. Look back at the thread. That's not an "optimistic" article, its useless, you know that.
Location: Some got six month some got one solid. But me and my buddies all got lifetime here
4,555 posts, read 10,401,557 times
Reputation: 2162
Quote:
Originally Posted by CouponJack
How do "we" specifically drag a recession on longer than it needs to? When I hear that statement, I really don't think it makes sense IMO.
I think most people are cutting back and trying to live within their means like they should've all along. We've become such a spending nation which is part of the reason that got us into trouble in the first place (high cc debt for example).
We are not dragging this recession out longer than we should if we spend responsibily, right?
Brian, c'mon. Carolina Blue posted a link fromt he NY Times showing that we (charlotte) didn't make the top 20 list of shaky building leases. I told him that this was a useless list/article because NYC was #1....that would mean it would be the most "risky" in the nation.....it was a total hogwash article and had NOTHING to do w/local housing data. And he AGREED with me. Look back at the thread. That's not an "optimistic" article, its useless, you know that.
He posted one other article at one point, I'll have to go back and find it. If it wasn't him then I'll admit to the egg on my face with that point.
However getting back to the meat of my argument, it's not those who got themselves into credit card trouble or bought houses that they couldn't afford that I'm getting at. Again, I'll go back to you jumping on Metallisteve. Again, let's assume that he did spend a lot for his dinner. Should he not be able to, or does he need to fall in line with this "national malaise"? Every now and then I'll see someone on here or hear someone who'll say, "this place was crowded, I thought there's supposed to be a recession". Like this is a shock?
Not everyone spends out of their means. Not everyone will be brutally affected by this recession. Not everyone will lose their job and not everyone will lose their life savings, yet some on here (and in the media) act like it's a virtual certainty. Ridiculous! If you can go out for a nicer dinner that's within your budget, do so. Same thing for a big screen TV. Because if you don't, then those places (especially the local ones who you see the calls to support) wind up going under. Then those people aren't able to support the business they once used to and then they lay people off. Keeping people in business helps keep others in business. That's what I mean by "dragging this thing on longer than it needs to".
I am actually shocked. I am at Disney World right now on vacation and it is way more packed than it was last year at this time! I kept reading that people were cancelling their vacation plans and saving, etc....so I really expected minimal crowds.
Anyway, back to the topic.....DH and I have been speculating on the economy. I dont' think it will be like the 30's in terms of long lines of soup kitchens and such, but we do wonder what will happen in the next few years and huge numbers of baby boomers retire and use resources like medicaid and social security.
Dawn
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Spend spend spend
We younger ones may not care but hello we are staring down our own fate unless we take action.
