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Old 02-15-2009, 09:16 AM
 
Location: Lake Wylie, SC
622 posts, read 1,583,676 times
Reputation: 475

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Quote:
Originally Posted by johne482 View Post
Great. Thank you for the offer to do something I don't have time for.
On the house you presented in an earliar post on Providence. . . the one that is "REDUCED $375,000" you stated that was his original asking price. What I would like to see, I think it might shed some light on this thread, is the original listing. Surely this will be easy to obtain if you do some digging or a real estate person here on board assists you.

Lets see the original listing, days on the market and the reductions on the price to date.I would hate to base points made on this thread only on one liner in some stranger's listing that says "REDUCED $375,000." I think we can go a little further and perhaps we all get educated in the process.

Thanks for the offer BTW

John
Okay, I had some time on my hands this morning and looked up the information for the property on CMLS.

Original purchase price - $387,500
Original purchase date - 3/2005 (right in the middle of the "bubble")

1st offer for sale - 8/2007
1st sale price - $699,000
DOM - 185
Result - expired

Current listing price - $450,000
Current list date - 10/2008
Current DOM - 135

The property does not indicate that there have been any upgrades since the 2005 purchase. If upgrades were done this is usually indicated on the MLS sheet.

If one was to apply a generic decline in the Charlotte market, the current value of the home would be in the mid 300k. Is that realistic? Is the current asking price realistic? I have my opinion but I leave you to yours. All data can be verified. Just DM me and I will provide the full MLS listing info.

 
Old 02-15-2009, 09:35 AM
 
7,104 posts, read 9,697,599 times
Reputation: 2564
Quote:
Originally Posted by Belmarin View Post
Okay, I had some time on my hands this morning and looked up the information for the property on CMLS.

Original purchase price - $387,500
Original purchase date - 3/2005 (right in the middle of the "bubble")

1st offer for sale - 8/2007
1st sale price - $699,000
DOM - 185
Result - expired

Current listing price - $450,000
Current list date - 10/2008
Current DOM - 135

The property does not indicate that there have been any upgrades since the 2005 purchase. If upgrades were done this is usually indicated on the MLS sheet.

If one was to apply a generic decline in the Charlotte market, the current value of the home would be in the mid 300k. Is that realistic? Is the current asking price realistic? I have my opinion but I leave you to yours. All data can be verified. Just DM me and I will provide the full MLS listing info.
Note to Coupon Jack: Now that wasn't very hard was it. DOM info with-in hours. Available to public w/o a problem.

Note to Sheena: Only printed word you should believe is the Bible and even that most people have a problem with interpetation.

Thanks for this infomation. I'll be honest with you. . . I knew this before I posted just taking someone up on a free offer of research.
 
Old 02-15-2009, 09:44 AM
 
7,104 posts, read 9,697,599 times
Reputation: 2564
Quote:
Originally Posted by Metallisteve View Post
Seriously...one post wasn't enough on the same topic?

I can't wait to come out of this debacle in [insert time frame here]...the economy and local markets (of every product/service, not just housing) shake off the beating they took...and see folks like this eat crow.
Steve is very obvious you know nothing about torture treatments such as were used in the Korean War. The technique was to a have a veeeerrrryy
sllllowwwwing dripping faucet put on the POW. Eventuanlly he gave his name, rank and serial number.

Why do I mention this as an answer to your question? Think about the analogy...drip

drip


drip


drip...... you got it now??

Don't let it bother you it's only water (mixed with some hot air)
john
 
Old 02-15-2009, 10:20 AM
 
469 posts, read 875,699 times
Reputation: 591
Arrow <insert title here>

Quote:
Originally Posted by DavidMar View Post
. . . Put differently, people are only getting about 61% of their original list price when they finally sell. . .
That is the central fallacy of your post.

I don't doubt that selling prices are falling, but your attempt to link those two data sets is flawed.

/thread
 
Old 02-15-2009, 10:37 AM
 
Location: State of Being
35,885 posts, read 67,004,073 times
Reputation: 22370
I will be glad to do a complete analysis of housing in Charlotte, but would need the following data for each house sold in whatever period you want to examine (last 30 days, 60 days, 90 days, whatever).

For each house:

1. original selling price and year, exact location so I can plot it
2. tax valuation
3. listing price, and original listing date
4. selling price, and date
5. Copy of Appraisal submitted to lending institution
6. Any special incentives, (i.e., bonus to selling realtor) attached to the listing contract
7. Other special circumstances of neighborhood, i.e. incomplete b/c builder's have gone bankrupt, road construction impeding traffic, etc.

And to really give me a full picture, I would need rationale for sale: Owner relocating? Foreclosure? Building elsewhere in the region? Death? Divorce? Downsizing?

Now if y'all can get me that, I will tell you exactly what is going on in this market.
 
Old 02-15-2009, 02:38 PM
 
11 posts, read 13,822 times
Reputation: 29
Quote:
Originally Posted by anifani821 View Post
I will be glad to do a complete analysis of housing in Charlotte, but would need the following data for each house sold in whatever period you want to examine (last 30 days, 60 days, 90 days, whatever).

For each house:

1. original selling price and year, exact location so I can plot it
2. tax valuation
3. listing price, and original listing date
4. selling price, and date
5. Copy of Appraisal submitted to lending institution
6. Any special incentives, (i.e., bonus to selling realtor) attached to the listing contract
7. Other special circumstances of neighborhood, i.e. incomplete b/c builder's have gone bankrupt, road construction impeding traffic, etc.

And to really give me a full picture, I would need rationale for sale: Owner relocating? Foreclosure? Building elsewhere in the region? Death? Divorce? Downsizing?

Now if y'all can get me that, I will tell you exactly what is going on in this market.

If we take you at you word, then what you are clearly admitting is that you will never be able to know what is going on in any housing market, and, in fact, nobody anywhere knows what's going on in any housing market.

But you knew that.

What you were attempting to do with you post is something akin to:

"Only experts with reams and reams of data can possibly know what's going on in the housing market, and everybody else is just guessing based on too little data."

I completely disagree.

Many different indexes, which are very simple and easy to access, will point the direction of the market in Charlotte.

Days on market - increasing.

Inventory, increasing.

Asking price - stable or slightly increasing.

Sales price - falling rapidly.

Unemployment - rising rapidly.

Corporate activity - falling rapidly.

Credit availability - very bad, and no sign of respite.


I guess you can wait to see the color of the retinas of the bull rhino that's charging at you before you decide it's time to get out of the way. I don't need that much information to make the call.

I saw the exact same pattern in DC when I sold for about 700k. That same house is now on the market for just over 450k.

I'm sure the person or persons who were advising my buyers were filling their ear with lots of sweet songs - probably told them that all the data I had used to call top were unreliable, depends on how you look at statistics, we'd need these 10 data points from every house sold for the last 50 years plus the color of the eldest child's hair and the number of earthworms per cubic meter to understand, really, where the market is going.

Meanwhile I pocketed a whole bunch of money by selling and downsizing, and some poor ******* took a beating.

This is not a difficult call. This is about as easy as they come.

The market is going down, it's going down hard, and it's going to stay down for quite awhile.

Rarely do we have so many indicators all pointing in the same direction. We do now.

If you're young and thinking about buying, really think hard.
 
Old 02-15-2009, 04:09 PM
 
Location: Charlotte, NC
2,193 posts, read 4,534,900 times
Reputation: 1072
I know you guys don't like charts, but for anyone who does here's one.
Japan went through a bubble also and take a look at their house prices.

They peaked out in 1990 and were/are still suffering a decline 15 years laters according to this chart below. Why are we different?

http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/w...ate_prices.jpg
 
Old 02-15-2009, 06:22 PM
 
Location: Wouldn't you like to know?
9,114 posts, read 15,638,426 times
Reputation: 3689
Quote:
Originally Posted by johne482 View Post
Note to Coupon Jack: Now that wasn't very hard was it. DOM info with-in hours. Available to public w/o a problem.

.
Wrong again John. This info is NOT available to the general public. You have to be a realtor (and pay a fee) to see the detail that the poster provided. Did you not notice that Belmarin is a Realtor???



Instead of always jumping at the bit to post, check your facts nextime.
 
Old 02-15-2009, 06:38 PM
 
7,104 posts, read 9,697,599 times
Reputation: 2564
Default A message to you

Quote:
Originally Posted by CouponJack View Post
Wrong again John. This info is NOT available to the general public. You have to be a realtor (and pay a fee) to see the detail that the poster provided. Did you not notice that Belmarin is a Realtor???



Instead of always jumping at the bit to post, check your facts nextime.
Wrong again Jack and btw insulting. Number one I don't jump at the bit to post. Number two I post facts as I know them not bs. Number three I don't need advise from you about how to check facts or do I need to be treated like a kid sitting in front of your classroom. Number four don't put me in a the corner with a dunce cap on because I said your information is incorrect. The fact of the matter is you said this information was held back by MLS people. Not available to general public. Two hours later it was published. I pointed that out to you. If you don't like my message don't shoot me. If you disagree with me send me a note. If you don't like what I say don't read my posts. But one thing I won't stand for without this kind of response, don't call me out in public unless you know what you're talking about. Because if you do you will look as stupid as you tried to make me look when I show you be be wrong.
If you care to we can stop the peeing match. If not carry on.

Love you too,
John
 
Old 02-15-2009, 06:47 PM
 
Location: Wouldn't you like to know?
9,114 posts, read 15,638,426 times
Reputation: 3689
Quote:
Originally Posted by johne482 View Post
Wrong again Jack and btw insulting. Number one I don't jump at the bit to post. Number two I post facts as I know them not bs. Number three I don't need advise from you about how to check facts or do I need to be treated like a kid sitting in front of your classroom. Number four don't put me in a the corner with a dunce cap on because I said your information is incorrect. The fact of the matter is you said this information was held back by MLS people. Not available to general public. Two hours later it was published. I pointed that out to you. If you don't like my message don't shoot me. If you disagree with me send me a note. If you don't like what I say don't read my posts. But one thing I won't stand for without this kind of response, don't call me out in public unless you know what you're talking about. Because if you do you will look as stupid as you tried to make me look when I show you be be wrong.
If you care to we can stop the peeing match. If not carry on.

Love you too,
John

Awww come on, don't be so thin skinned already...take your medicine when your wrong and move on.


When you make the following response....(which is incorrect BTW)

"Note to Coupon Jack: Now that wasn't very hard was it. DOM info with-in hours. Available to public w/o a problem"


I'm going to give it back to you. Belmarin posted the specific information from the CMLS. The specific info is not available to the public.

Move on already
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